Randy Vásquez

P San Diego Padres

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	30	30	140	5.86	4.60	16.8%	6.5%	0.5	K 15.8% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.55
2025	26	MIX2 levels	30	28	142	3.94	4.66	13.8%	9.2%	0.4	K 13.7% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.58
2026	27	MIX2 levels	33	24	143	3.83	4.05	15.1%	6.0%	1.4	K 14.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.08
2027PROJ	28	MLBSD	22	22	133	4.61	4.70	15.0%	7.0%	0.3
2028PROJ	29	MLBSD	21	21	127	4.80	4.90	14.4%	7.3%	0.1
2029PROJ	30	MLBSD	20	20	119	4.98	5.10	13.7%	7.6%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$4M2028Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo58

xwOBA vs13

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsDavid Phelps (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · Armando Galarraga (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.61

FIP4.70

K%15.0%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP133

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1014.8%

xwOBA vs

p130.356

FB+2.6 (48%)

CT+1.8 (24%)

SI (17%)

CU (8%)

SL (12%)

CH-0.6 (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	9	7	30	119	28	12	1	78%	3.4	16.0%	12.6%	3.4%	1.2%	1.78	3.99	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees West	9	7	30	119	28	12	1	78%	3.4	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	0.8%	1.78	2.87	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	107	454	130	38	4	91%	4.7	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	1.1%	2.52	3.07	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	107	454	130	38	4	91%	4.7	28.6%	8.4%	20.3%	0.9%	2.52	2.22	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	25	115	496	120	41	11	100%	4.6	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	2.6%	3.90	4.01	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	25	25	115	496	120	41	11	100%	4.6	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	2.2%	3.90	3.33	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	118	523	129	58	15	79%	4.2	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.04	4.17	+1.0
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	118	523	129	58	15	79%	4.2	24.7%	11.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.04	4.04	+1.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	15.8%	6.3%	9.5%	3.6%	5.86	4.55	+0.6
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	15.8%	6.3%	9.5%	3.6%	5.86	4.55	+0.6
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	16.8%	6.5%	10.3%	3.6%	5.86	4.60	+0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.7%	8.9%	4.7%	2.7%	3.94	4.58	+0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.7%	8.9%	4.7%	2.7%	3.94	4.58	+0.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.8%	9.2%	4.6%	2.8%	3.94	4.66	+0.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	596	90	36	16	73%	4.3	14.8%	6.1%	8.7%	2.7%	3.83	4.08	+1.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	596	90	36	16	73%	4.3	14.8%	6.1%	8.7%	2.7%	3.83	4.08	+1.4
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	24	143	596	90	36	16	73%	4.3	15.1%	6.0%	9.1%	2.7%	3.83	4.05	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	74	410	1754	260	133	50	81%	4.5	14.8%	7.6%	7.2%	2.9%	4.02	4.39	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SD	22	22	133	562	84	40	16	100%	6.0	15.0%	7.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.61	4.70	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	127	536	77	39	16	100%	6.0	14.4%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	119	504	69	38	16	100%	6.0	13.7%	7.6%	6.1%	3.2%	4.94	5.06	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	21	21	127	536	77	39	17	100%	6.0	14.4%	7.3%	7.1%	3.1%	4.80	4.90	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	20	20	119	502	69	38	17	100%	6.0	13.7%	7.6%	6.1%	3.3%	4.98	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	115	656	2794	406	210	84	87%	5.0	14.5%	7.5%	7.0%	3.0%	4.34	4.47	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	35	200	851	124	64	26	87%	5.0	14.5%	7.5%	7.0%	3.0%	4.34	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		178	157	796	3426	602	289	90	88%	4.5	17.6%	8.4%	9.1%	2.6%	3.99	4.12	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	39	200	861	151	73	23	88%	4.5	17.6%	8.4%	9.1%	2.6%	3.99	4.12	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Vásquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	15.0%	7.0%	2.9%	—	4.96	14.1%	6.7%	246	+0.26	—	—	—
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	81
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	78
Armando Galarraga R 2010 · 5.06 FIP	28	SP	5.06	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	6.67	14.1%	2.6%	67	+1.61	3.92	584	73
Victor Santos R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP	4.67	13.9%	8.1%	3.1%	.278	4.90	16.0%	7.8%	179	+0.23	4.09	602	72
Josh Fogg R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	28	SP-	4.85	11.5%	5.7%	3.6%	.287	4.77	12.4%	5.7%	416	-0.08	0.87	1,159	71
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	70
Jason Hammel R 2011 · 4.52 FIP	28	SP	4.52	12.7%	8.8%	2.5%	.275	3.89	20.3%	13.2%	434	-0.63	3.10	1,810	69
Rodrigo Lopez R 2004 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP-	4.21	16.9%	7.3%	2.9%	.275	4.57	14.2%	7.8%	478	+0.36	4.06	1,344	68
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	67
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	66
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	66
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	65
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	65
Randy Wells R 2011 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	14.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.271	4.71	9.8%	-6.3%	29	-0.39	3.71	524	65
Brian Bannister R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	14.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.287	5.42	13.3%	4.7%	128	+1.45	3.97	667	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	64
Matt Harvey R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	28	SP	5.76	15.5%	10.2%	4.9%	.298	4.71	19.0%	12.0%	249	-1.05	1.87	1,044	64
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	64
Tyler Wilson R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	27	SP-	4.45	12.1%	7.0%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	377	63
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	113	14.6%	7.5%	1.14	4.38
Jesse Litsch ('11)	2.1	104	13.5%	6.7%	1.19	4.16
Clayton Richard ('19)	6.4	117	14.9%	7.9%	1.04	4.51
Johnny Humphries ('38-'46, 6 WAR*)	5.0	111	15.8%*	7.9%*	1.07*	4.41*
Dillon Gee ('17)	4.3	107	16.9%	7.3%	1.17	4.09
Tony Freitas ('32-'36, 3 WAR*)	2.6	130	13.8%*	6.6%*	1.09*	4.55*
John Dopson ('85-'94, 6 WAR*)	3.6	145	16.5%*	8.2%*	1.25*	4.36*