Chase Chaney
P
Somerset Patriots
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 199 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%16.8%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%9.0%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†4040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Angels | 11 | 2 | 39 | 196 | 27 | 35 | 3 | 9.4% | 22.3% | 2.1% | 6.28 | 6.31 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 15 | 3 | 41 | 198 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 0.7% | 4.57 | 2.73 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 30 | 11 | 91 | 386 | 81 | 17 | 3 | 15.5% | 5.2% | 1.2% | 2.77 | 3.08 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 25 | 20 | 114 | 493 | 85 | 36 | 6 | 13.4% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 3.80 | 3.86 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 26 | 25 | 138 | 603 | 103 | 42 | 19 | 13.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.30 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 26 | 21 | 119 | 504 | 91 | 30 | 10 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 2 | 2 | 12 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.54 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 85 | 40 | 15 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 132 | 553 | 95 | 42 | 16 | 17.2% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.30 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 90 | 41 | 16 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 92 | 41 | 16 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 90 | 40 | 16 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 87 | 40 | 16 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 83 | 39 | 15 | 17.4% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 78 | 38 | 15 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 73 | 37 | 15 | 16.8% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 68 | 36 | 15 | 16.5% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 63 | 35 | 14 | 16.1% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 57 | 34 | 14 | 15.7% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.29 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 84 | 554 | 2426 | 348 | 201 | 55 | 14.3% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 3.93 | 4.19 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 30 | 200 | 876 | 126 | 73 | 20 | 14.3% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 3.93 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Chaney (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.68 | 17.6% | 9.7% | 367 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 93 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 92 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 92 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 91 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 91 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 90 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 89 |
| Frank Batista R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 89 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 88 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 88 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 88 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 334 | 88 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 88 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 88 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 87 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 87 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 87 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 87 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 87 |
| Nick Petree R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.15 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 122 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.2 | $1M | -$6M |
| Totals | $11M | $14M | +$3M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.