Chase Chaney — OGILVIE

Chase Chaney P Somerset Patriots

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 199 lbs AA peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%12.2%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Angels	11	2	39	196	27	35	3	18%	3.5	9.4%	22.3%	-13.0%	2.1%	6.28	6.31	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Angels	11	2	39	196	27	35	3	18%	3.5	13.8%	17.9%	-4.1%	1.5%	6.28	5.43	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	3	41	198	54	12	2	20%	2.8	20.1%	7.4%	12.7%	0.7%	4.57	2.72	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	3	41	198	54	12	2	20%	2.8	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	1.0%	4.57	1.99	—
2022	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	30	11	91	386	81	17	3	37%	3.0	15.5%	5.2%	10.3%	1.1%	2.77	3.07	—
2022	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	30	11	91	386	81	17	3	37%	3.0	21.0%	4.4%	16.6%	0.8%	2.77	2.31	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	114	493	85	36	6	80%	4.5	13.4%	8.1%	5.3%	1.6%	3.80	3.86	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	114	493	85	36	6	80%	4.5	13.4%	8.1%	5.3%	1.6%	3.80	3.86	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	114	493	85	36	6	80%	4.5	17.2%	7.3%	9.9%	1.2%	3.80	3.24	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	26	25	138	603	103	42	19	96%	5.3	13.8%	7.7%	6.2%	3.9%	4.30	5.03	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	26	25	138	603	103	42	19	96%	5.3	13.8%	7.7%	6.2%	3.9%	4.30	5.03	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	26	25	138	603	103	42	19	96%	5.3	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.30	4.31	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	119	504	91	30	10	81%	4.6	13.9%	6.8%	7.1%	2.6%	3.77	4.19	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	119	504	91	30	10	81%	4.6	13.9%	6.8%	7.1%	2.6%	3.77	4.19	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	119	504	91	30	10	81%	4.6	18.1%	6.0%	12.1%	2.0%	3.77	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	7	63	283	48	24	11	44%	4.0	13.7%	9.3%	4.4%	4.7%	4.55	5.68	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	7	63	283	48	24	11	44%	4.0	13.7%	9.3%	4.4%	4.7%	4.55	5.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	NYY	16	7	63	283	48	24	11	44%	4.0	17.0%	8.5%	8.5%	3.9%	4.55	4.88	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	NYY	8	0	8	33	4	3	1	0%	1.0	12.2%	7.9%	4.3%	3.0%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	71	316	52	27	12	—	—	16.5%	8.4%	8.0%	3.8%	4.61	5.62	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	122	516	68	41	16	100%	6.8	13.2%	8.0%	5.2%	3.1%	5.04	5.06	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	119	501	69	40	16	100%	7.0	13.7%	8.1%	5.6%	3.2%	5.04	5.08	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	113	478	66	40	16	100%	6.7	13.9%	8.3%	5.6%	3.3%	5.10	5.17	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	106	450	62	39	16	100%	6.7	13.7%	8.6%	5.1%	3.5%	5.23	5.33	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	46	194	26	15	6	100%	6.6	13.2%	8.0%	5.2%	3.1%	5.04	5.06	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	71	300	41	24	9	100%	7.1	13.7%	8.1%	5.6%	3.2%	5.04	5.08	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	80	338	47	28	11	100%	6.7	13.9%	8.3%	5.6%	3.3%	5.10	5.17	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	83	350	48	30	12	100%	6.9	13.7%	8.6%	5.1%	3.5%	5.23	5.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	280	1183	162	98	39	100%	6.8	13.7%	8.3%	5.4%	3.3%	5.11	4.80	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	116	70	28	100%	6.8	13.7%	8.3%	5.4%	3.3%	5.11	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		149	89	605	2663	377	225	67	60%	4.1	14.1%	8.5%	5.7%	2.5%	4.04	4.36	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	29	200	880	124	74	22	60%	4.1	14.1%	8.5%	5.7%	2.5%	4.04	4.36	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Chaney (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	12.2%	7.9%	3.0%	—	5.10	13.6%	5.5%	354	-0.01	—	—	—
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	92
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	88
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	88
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	88
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	87
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	86
Tony Bucciferro R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	25	SP-	5.11	6.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	5.11	107	86
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	86
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	86
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	85
Ivan Zavala R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP-	4.51	7.0%	4.7%	2.6%	.312	4.73	12.2%	4.3%	50	+0.22	4.27	209	83
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	82
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	81
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	81
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	81
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	81
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	80
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	80
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	80
Ryan Doran R 2015 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	10.0%	4.2%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	114	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	110	13.4%	8.2%	1.24	5.10
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20