Erik Tolman

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	9	9	28	2.57	2.71	20.8%	10.8%	—	K 14.8% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.08
2025	26	MIX3 levels	33	13	96	3.67	3.74	24.1%	13.5%	—	K 18.7% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.68
2026	27	MIX2 levels	47	1	46	4.47	4.03	28.4%	15.4%	0.3	K 25.5% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.18
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	54	0	57	4.81	5.10	22.8%	15.8%	-0.3
2028PROJ61% MLB	29	MLBWSH	31	0	33	5.00	5.18	22.2%	15.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ72% MLB	30	MLBWSH	34	0	36	5.17	5.32	21.6%	15.2%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo82

Whiff%74

xwOBA vs70

K%67

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJohn Bale (age 27) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28) · Stephen Randolph (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA4.81

FIP5.10

K%22.8%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	28	120	25	13	0	100%	3.1	14.8%	9.7%	5.1%	0.0%	2.57	3.08	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	28	120	25	13	0	100%	3.1	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	0.0%	2.57	2.71	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	18.7%	15.4%	3.3%	2.2%	3.67	4.68	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	18.7%	15.4%	3.3%	2.2%	3.67	4.68	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	13	96	399	96	54	7	39%	2.9	24.1%	13.5%	10.5%	1.8%	3.67	3.74	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	46	208	59	32	5	2%	1.0	25.5%	14.3%	11.3%	2.6%	4.47	4.18	+0.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	46	208	59	32	5	2%	1.0	25.5%	14.3%	11.3%	2.6%	4.47	4.18	+0.2
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	46	208	59	32	5	2%	1.0	28.4%	15.4%	13.0%	2.4%	4.47	4.03	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	0	15	67	17	9	1	0%	1.0	25.4%	13.4%	11.9%	1.5%	2.93	3.49	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	54	0	57	241	55	38	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	15.8%	6.9%	2.8%	4.81	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	54	228	51	35	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	15.4%	6.9%	3.0%	5.00	5.18	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	48	0	51	215	46	33	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.2%	6.4%	3.2%	5.17	5.32	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	31	0	33	139	31	21	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	15.4%	6.9%	3.0%	5.00	5.18	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	34	0	36	152	33	23	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.2%	6.4%	3.2%	5.17	5.32	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	0	85	360	81	54	10	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.9%	7.6%	2.8%	4.70	4.62	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	850	191	128	24	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.9%	7.6%	2.8%	4.70	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		89	23	170	727	145	103	14	26%	1.9	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	2.0%	3.71	4.27	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	27	200	855	171	121	17	26%	1.9	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	2.0%	3.71	4.27	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Tolman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	22.8%	15.8%	2.8%	—	5.25	21.9%	6.6%	105	+0.15	—	—	—
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	74
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	73
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	72
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	71
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	71
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	71
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	71
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	70
Armando Almanza L 2001 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	25.3%	14.0%	4.5%	.260	4.73	25.3%	14.7%	108	-0.48	2.90	211	69
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	69
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	69
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	68
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	68
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	67
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.02	369	67
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	67
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	66
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	66
Jordan Norberto L 2015 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	16.9%	14.1%	1.5%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	117	66
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	22.5%	15.3%	1.10	4.81
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*