Ryan Weiss
P
Houston Astros
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP4.72
SIERA4.55
K%23.1%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.3%
IP12
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p3723.5%
K%
p6124.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.372
SI (12%)
CU (3%)
SL-0.9 (32%)
CH-1.2 (15%)
FB-6.6 (49%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | 26 | 26 | 128 | 559 | 103 | 33 | 7 | 13.8% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 4.07 | 3.78 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | 34 | 8 | 78 | 326 | 88 | 31 | 12 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.37 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 47 | 1 | 62 | 289 | 59 | 24 | 13 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 6.93 | 5.47 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 12 | 0 | 14 | 74 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 17.8% | 19.9% | 4.6% | 7.07 | 6.66 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 1 | 15 | 72 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 25.0% | 13.9% | 5.6% | 6.75 | 5.80 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 36 | 299 | 1325 | 235 | 122 | 43 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 4.55 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 24 | 200 | 887 | 157 | 82 | 29 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 4.55 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Weiss (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.69 | 23.4% | 12.9% | 20 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 77 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 75 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .351 | 5.10 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 229 | 75 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.49 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 187 | 75 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 74 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 204 | 74 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 74 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 73 |
| Louis Head R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.88 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .450 | 3.56 | 23.7% | 13.1% | 108 | -1.32 | 2.77 | 336 | 73 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 73 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.68 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.38 | 3.02 | 258 | 73 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 73 |
| Jose Casilla R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.65 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 73 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 72 |
| Tucker Healy R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.21 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 4.4% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 174 | 72 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 72 |
| Jeremy Jeffress R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.70 | 17.3% | 10.2% | 3.2% | .309 | 2.99 | 25.0% | 16.6% | 152 | -1.71 | 2.41 | 343 | 72 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .353 | 4.68 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +0.87 | 2.67 | 279 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.