Ryan Weiss — OGILVIE

Ryan Weiss P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%20.6%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.379

SI (12%)

CU (3%)

SL-0.9 (32%)

CH-1.2 (15%)

FB-6.6 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	9.00	-0.28	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	9.00	-0.90	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	128	559	103	33	7	100%	4.9	13.8%	6.9%	6.9%	1.7%	4.07	3.77	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	128	559	103	33	7	100%	4.9	18.4%	5.9%	12.5%	1.3%	4.07	2.98	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	78	326	88	31	12	24%	2.3	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.6%	4.60	4.46	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	8	78	326	88	31	12	24%	2.3	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	3.7%	4.60	4.03	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	62	289	59	24	13	2%	1.3	17.6%	8.7%	8.9%	5.0%	6.93	5.47	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	62	289	59	24	13	2%	1.3	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	4.5%	6.93	5.07	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	12	0	14	74	15	14	3	0%	1.2	16.8%	17.0%	-0.2%	4.7%	7.07	6.43	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	12	0	14	74	15	14	3	0%	1.2	16.8%	17.0%	-0.2%	4.7%	7.07	6.43	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	12	0	14	74	15	14	3	0%	1.2	20.3%	18.9%	1.4%	4.1%	7.07	6.74	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	2	26	131	30	20	8	22%	2.9	22.9%	15.3%	7.6%	6.1%	7.62	7.10	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	29	13	89	432	90	56	17	45%	3.1	18.5%	12.1%	6.3%	4.2%	6.88	5.38	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	29	13	89	432	90	56	17	45%	3.1	18.5%	12.1%	6.3%	4.2%	6.88	5.38	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	HOU	20	11	63	301	60	36	9	55%	3.1	19.9%	12.0%	8.0%	3.0%	6.57	4.57	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	HOU	9	2	26	131	30	20	8	22%	2.9	22.9%	15.3%	7.6%	6.1%	7.62	6.45	-0.6
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	HOU	9	2	26	131	30	20	8	22%	2.9	22.9%	15.3%	7.6%	6.1%	7.62	6.45	-0.6
ROS	29	MLB MLE	HOU	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	HOU	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	94	453	94	59	18	—	—	20.8%	13.0%	7.9%	3.9%	6.76	5.34	-0.5
FULL	29	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	31	131	94	59	18	—	—	72.2%	44.9%	27.3%	13.5%	20.54	10.11	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52	0	55	231	51	31	9	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.5%	8.4%	3.8%	5.37	5.44	-0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	51	216	47	29	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	4.0%	5.45	5.55	-0.6
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	52	220	48	30	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.5%	8.4%	3.8%	5.37	5.44	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	47	0	49	207	45	28	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	4.0%	5.45	5.55	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	2	132	577	127	80	25	2%	1.2	22.0%	13.9%	8.1%	4.4%	5.82	5.40	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	3	200	877	193	122	38	2%	1.2	22.0%	13.9%	8.1%	4.4%	5.82	5.40	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		149	48	373	1685	296	162	58	32%	2.5	17.6%	9.6%	7.9%	3.4%	5.45	4.71	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	26	200	903	159	87	31	32%	2.5	17.6%	9.6%	7.9%	3.4%	5.45	4.71	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Weiss (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	21.8%	13.1%	3.0%	—	5.49	21.8%	8.2%	106	+0.52	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	68
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	67
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	66
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	66
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	66
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	66
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	66
David Lebron R 2021 · 5.56 FIP	27	SU	5.56	26.7%	14.7%	5.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	144	65
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	65
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	64
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	64
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	64
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	64
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	63
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	63
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	63
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	63
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	63
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	21.8%	13.4%	1.39	5.25
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22