Ryan Weiss
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
K%21.5%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p3923.7%
K%
p5422.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.379
SI (12%)
CU (3%)
SL-0.9 (32%)
CH-1.2 (15%)
FB-6.6 (49%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | -0.28 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 128 | 559 | 103 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 13.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 4.07 | 3.87 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 128 | 559 | 103 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 1.3% | 4.07 | 2.98 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 8 | 78 | 326 | 88 | 31 | 12 | 24% | 2.3 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.20 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 8 | 78 | 326 | 88 | 31 | 12 | 24% | 2.3 | 27.0% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 3.7% | 4.60 | 4.03 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 1 | 62 | 289 | 59 | 24 | 13 | 2% | 1.3 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 6.93 | 5.48 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 1 | 62 | 289 | 59 | 24 | 13 | 2% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 4.5% | 6.93 | 5.07 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 12 | 0 | 14 | 74 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.8% | 19.9% | -2.0% | 5.0% | 7.07 | 6.88 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 12 | 0 | 14 | 74 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 18.9% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 7.07 | 6.74 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 18 | 9 | 60 | 297 | 58 | 37 | 16 | 50% | 3.3 | 18.4% | 12.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.80 | 6.27 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 32 | 136 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 92 | 433 | 87 | 54 | 21 | — | — | 20.1% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 6.74 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 58 | 246 | 87 | 54 | 21 | — | — | 35.5% | 21.8% | 13.6% | 8.4% | 10.67 | 7.51 | -2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 53 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 48 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 44 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.45 | 5.58 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 50 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 46 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.45 | 5.58 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 152 | 7 | 204 | 882 | 197 | 117 | 37 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 5.52 | 5.21 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 7 | 200 | 865 | 193 | 115 | 36 | 4% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 5.52 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 138 | 44 | 344 | 1550 | 272 | 150 | 56 | 32% | 2.5 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.49 | 4.83 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 26 | 200 | 901 | 158 | 87 | 33 | 32% | 2.5 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.49 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Weiss (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 23.2% | 12.1% | 3.0% | — | 5.42 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 153 | +0.69 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 73 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 68 |
| David Lebron R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.07 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 4.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 144 | 68 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 67 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 66 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 65 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 65 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 65 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 65 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 65 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 65 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 64 |
| Mike Adams R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 64 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 64 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 64 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 64 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 64 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 63 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.49 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 5.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 24.6% | 20.4% | 340 | -2.25 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 63 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 22.6% | 12.8% | 1.44 | 5.16 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |