Ryan Weiss

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	47	1	62	6.93	5.07	20.4%	8.3%	—	K 17.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 5.47
2023	26	AAAKC	12	0	14	7.07	6.74	20.3%	18.9%	—	K 17.4% · BB 17.0% · FIP 6.38
2026	29	MIX2 levels	31	15	102	5.98	4.97	21.3%	12.1%	-0.5	K 19.2% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.99
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	48	0	50	5.41	5.56	20.5%	13.9%	-0.5
2028PROJ79% MLB	31	MLBHOU	37	0	39	5.52	5.67	20.1%	13.8%	-0.5
2029PROJ84% MLB	32	MLBHOU	31	0	33	5.66	5.82	19.5%	13.9%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo60

K%54

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBradin Hagens (age 30) · Murphy Smith (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.41

FIP5.56

K%20.5%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.379

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	9.00	-0.28	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	9.00	-0.90	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	128	559	103	33	7	100%	4.9	13.8%	6.9%	6.9%	1.7%	4.07	3.77	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	128	559	103	33	7	100%	4.9	18.4%	5.9%	12.5%	1.3%	4.07	2.98	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	78	326	88	31	12	24%	2.3	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.6%	4.60	4.46	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	8	78	326	88	31	12	24%	2.3	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	3.7%	4.60	4.03	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	62	289	59	24	13	2%	1.3	17.6%	8.7%	8.9%	5.0%	6.93	5.47	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	62	289	59	24	13	2%	1.3	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	4.5%	6.93	5.07	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	12	0	14	74	15	14	3	0%	1.2	17.4%	17.0%	0.4%	4.7%	7.07	6.38	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	12	0	14	74	15	14	3	0%	1.2	20.3%	18.9%	1.4%	4.1%	7.07	6.74	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	102	478	102	58	17	48%	3.3	19.2%	11.3%	7.9%	3.8%	5.98	4.99	-0.5
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	102	478	102	58	17	48%	3.3	19.2%	11.3%	7.9%	3.8%	5.98	4.99	-0.5
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	15	102	478	102	58	17	48%	3.3	21.3%	12.1%	9.2%	3.6%	5.98	4.97	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	2	26	131	30	20	8	22%	2.9	22.9%	15.3%	7.6%	6.1%	7.62	7.10	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	HOU	48	0	50	211	43	29	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	3.7%	5.41	5.56	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	47	0	49	209	42	29	8	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.8%	6.2%	3.9%	5.52	5.67	-0.6
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	37	0	39	166	32	23	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	4.1%	5.66	5.82	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	37	0	39	165	33	23	6	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.8%	6.2%	3.9%	5.52	5.67	-0.5
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	31	0	33	139	27	19	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	4.1%	5.66	5.82	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	2	98	435	90	62	20	3%	1.3	20.7%	14.3%	6.5%	4.6%	6.12	5.69	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		158	4	200	888	183	126	41	3%	1.3	20.7%	14.3%	6.5%	4.6%	6.12	5.69	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		151	50	386	1731	309	164	58	33%	2.6	17.8%	9.5%	8.4%	3.3%	5.26	4.62	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	26	200	896	160	85	30	33%	2.6	17.8%	9.5%	8.4%	3.3%	5.26	4.62	-3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 76 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.41 (+0.25)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.75%	—	×0.860	17.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.95%	—	×0.900	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 14 IPFIP 6.01 → 6.38 (+0.37)K% 20.3% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.27%	—	×0.860	17.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.92%	—	×0.900	17.03%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷0.942	×1.100	4.73%

Result: FIP 6.01 → 6.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 45 IPFIP 5.48 → 6.07 (+0.59)K% 20.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.880	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.45%	—	×1.050	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.984	×1.100	5.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 5.48 → 6.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 17 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.56 (+0.52)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.810	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.45%	—	×1.100	1.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.094	×1.200	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 48 IPFIP 4.82 → 5.19 (+0.37)K% 26.2% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.18%	—	×0.810	21.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.38%	—	×1.100	9.21%
HR / BF /BF	5.24%	÷1.271	×1.200	4.94%

Result: FIP 4.82 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAReno Aces · 30 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.42 (+0.48)K% 28.1% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.15%	—	×0.880	24.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.050	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷0.958	×1.100	1.70%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AKane County Cougars · 97 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.85 (+0.85)K% 17.9% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.90%	—	×0.740	13.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.97%	—	×1.180	7.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷0.875	×1.300	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Visalia Rawhide · 32 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.53 (+0.61)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.150	6.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.095	×1.250	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Weiss (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	20.5%	13.9%	3.7%	—	5.74	19.8%	6.0%	89	+0.18	—	—	—
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	65
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	63
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	63
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	63
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	62
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	62
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	62
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	61
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	61
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	61
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	61
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	61
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	60
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	60
Guillermo Moscoso R 2013 · 5.15 FIP	29	SU	5.15	24.2%	14.1%	4.2%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	486	60
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	60
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	60
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	60
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	60
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	46	20.6%	14.1%	1.64	5.80
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Jeff Jones ('80-'84, -2 WAR*)	1.0	41	22.0%*	12.4%*	1.48*	4.53*
Bill Laxton ('70-'77, -3 WAR*)	1.2	61	26.1%*	14.4%*	1.87*	5.39*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*