Chase Costello

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	ACarolina Mudc…	28	65	3.76	2.99	20.6%	7.8%	—	K 15.3% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.75
2024	24	MIX2 levels	37	48	3.35	2.42	31.2%	8.9%	—	K 24.5% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.34
2025	25	AAMIL	13	15	5.28	3.49	16.2%	13.5%	—	K 13.1% · BB 14.9% · FIP 3.87
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIL	12	13	4.73	4.73	20.2%	11.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIL	8	8	4.74	4.77	20.4%	10.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJoe Colón J (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%20.2%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP13

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	28	0	65	257	53	20	3	0%	2.3	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	1.4%	3.76	3.75	—
2023	23	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	28	0	65	257	53	20	3	0%	2.3	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	1.2%	3.76	2.99	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	48	202	63	18	3	0%	1.3	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.1%	3.35	3.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	48	202	63	18	3	0%	1.3	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.1%	3.35	3.34	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	48	202	63	18	3	0%	1.3	31.2%	8.9%	22.3%	1.5%	3.35	2.42	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	13	0	15	74	12	10	0	0%	1.2	13.1%	14.9%	-1.7%	0.0%	5.28	3.87	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	13	0	15	74	12	10	0	0%	1.2	13.1%	14.9%	-1.7%	0.0%	5.28	3.87	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	13	0	15	74	12	10	0	0%	1.2	16.2%	13.5%	2.7%	0.0%	5.28	3.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIL	12	0	13	55	11	6	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	2.8%	4.73	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.77	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	80	27	0%	1.1	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		78	0	128	533	98	53	8	0%	1.6	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	1.5%	3.79	3.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	0	200	831	153	82	12	0%	1.6	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	1.5%	3.79	3.61	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Costello (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	20.2%	11.0%	2.8%	—	4.77	20.4%	9.5%	20	+0.04	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	84
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	84
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	84
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	83
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	83
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	83
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	82
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	81
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	81
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81