Carson Coleman

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #541

Scout OFP45ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	44	0	63	2.13	1.62	37.8%	7.6%	—	K 30.2% · BB 8.5% · FIP 2.40
2025	27	MIX4 levels	17	2	17	1.59	1.51	23.8%	1.6%	—	K 23.8% · BB 1.6% · FIP 1.29
2026	28	AAAScranton/Wilk…	37	1	44	7.98	4.28	21.3%	12.1%	—	K 18.3% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.39
2027PROJ	29	MLBNYY	55	0	58	5.00	5.00	18.8%	12.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBNYY	19	0	20	5.04	5.11	18.9%	12.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBNYY	27	0	28	5.15	5.25	18.9%	12.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff44Control40Command40FB velo65

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Gregory Infante (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%18.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3545

CTRL—40

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	31	0	35	172	49	26	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	17.8%	3.2%	1.5%	6.11	4.41	—
2021	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	31	0	35	172	49	26	2	0%	1.1	28.5%	15.1%	13.4%	1.2%	6.11	3.27	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	63	251	95	19	3	0%	1.4	30.2%	8.5%	21.7%	1.4%	2.13	2.40	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	63	251	95	19	3	0%	1.4	37.8%	7.6%	30.3%	1.2%	2.13	1.62	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	2	17	63	15	1	0	12%	1.0	23.8%	1.6%	22.2%	0.0%	1.59	1.29	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	2	17	63	15	1	0	12%	1.0	23.8%	1.6%	22.2%	0.0%	1.59	1.29	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	2	17	63	15	1	0	12%	1.0	23.8%	1.6%	22.2%	0.0%	1.59	1.51	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	37	1	44	207	44	25	5	3%	1.2	18.3%	10.9%	7.4%	2.7%	7.98	4.39	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	37	1	44	207	44	25	5	3%	1.2	18.3%	10.9%	7.4%	2.7%	7.98	4.39	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	37	1	44	207	44	25	5	3%	1.2	21.3%	12.1%	9.2%	2.4%	7.98	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	NYY	55	0	58	245	46	29	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	2.9%	5.00	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYY	52	0	55	231	44	28	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	3.1%	5.04	5.11	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	NYY	49	0	51	216	41	26	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	3.3%	5.15	5.25	-0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYY	19	0	20	84	16	10	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	3.1%	5.04	5.11	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	NYY	27	0	28	118	22	14	4	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	3.3%	5.15	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	204	39	25	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	3.2%	5.10	4.82	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	103	29	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	3.2%	5.10	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		129	3	160	693	165	76	12	2%	1.2	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	1.7%	4.57	3.39	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	4	200	868	207	95	15	2%	1.2	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	1.7%	4.57	3.39	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Coleman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	18.8%	12.0%	2.9%	—	5.18	18.9%	6.8%	106	+0.18	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	91
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	88
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	82
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	81
Santiago Casilla R 2009 · 4.44 FIP	29	SU	4.44	15.0%	9.4%	2.6%	.324	3.29	22.1%	13.0%	170	-1.15	2.76	647	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Matt Lindstrom R 2009 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	17.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.320	3.16	17.7%	11.7%	154	-0.96	2.40	443	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	79
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	79
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	79
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	79
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	79
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	79
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	18.9%	12.1%	1.20	5.06
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*