Justin Wilson (P, Somerset Patriots) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Justin Wilson P Somerset Patriots

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%22.1%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	5	1	12	58	5	11	0	20%	2.3	5.9%	23.7%	-17.8%	0.0%	7.71	5.61	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	5	1	12	58	5	11	0	20%	2.3	8.6%	19.0%	-10.3%	0.0%	7.71	5.07	—
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	1	1	1	7	3	1	0	100%	1.0	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees West	1	1	1	7	3	1	0	100%	1.0	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	10	0	11	46	15	7	1	0%	1.1	32.6%	15.2%	17.4%	2.2%	4.76	3.47	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	10	0	11	46	15	7	1	0%	1.1	32.6%	15.2%	17.4%	2.2%	4.76	3.45	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	23	0	28	123	28	18	3	0%	1.2	18.4%	16.1%	2.3%	2.8%	3.86	5.14	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	23	0	28	123	28	18	3	0%	1.2	18.4%	16.1%	2.3%	2.8%	3.86	5.14	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	23	0	28	123	28	18	3	0%	1.2	22.8%	14.6%	8.1%	2.4%	3.86	4.42	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYY	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.4%	10.5%	3.2%	4.76	4.83	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYY	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.4%	10.5%	3.2%	4.76	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.4%	10.5%	3.2%	4.76	4.45	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.4%	10.5%	3.2%	4.76	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		39	2	52	234	44	42	4	5%	1.3	18.8%	17.8%	1.1%	1.9%	4.85	4.81	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	8	200	900	170	160	17	5%	1.3	18.8%	17.8%	1.1%	1.9%	4.85	4.81	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	22.1%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.83	21.8%	10.5%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	80
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	79
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	78
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	77
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	77
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	76
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	76
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	76