Tyler Beck prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Tyler Beck P Harrisburg Senators

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%22.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	15	68	24	6	0	0%	1.5	24.4%	11.7%	12.7%	0.0%	4.91	2.52	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	15	68	24	6	0	0%	1.5	35.3%	8.8%	26.5%	0.0%	4.91	1.05	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	84	343	91	30	8	68%	4.4	20.7%	9.9%	10.9%	2.7%	3.00	4.08	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	84	343	91	30	8	68%	4.4	26.5%	8.7%	17.8%	2.3%	3.00	3.24	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	4	19	5	4	2	0%	1.2	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	10.5%	12.27	9.32	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	4	19	5	4	2	0%	1.2	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	10.5%	12.27	10.74	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	41	190	44	24	6	4%	1.6	19.3%	13.8%	5.6%	3.1%	5.71	4.89	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	41	190	44	24	6	4%	1.6	19.3%	13.8%	5.6%	3.1%	5.71	4.89	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	41	190	44	24	6	4%	1.6	23.2%	12.6%	10.5%	3.2%	5.71	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	WSH	20	0	21	89	19	10	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.2%	4.74	4.82	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	WSH	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.2%	4.74	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	28	6	3	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.2%	4.74	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	91	30	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.2%	4.74	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		58	14	143	620	129	72	17	24%	2.5	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.31	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	20	200	865	181	100	24	24%	2.5	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.31	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	22.0%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.82	21.7%	10.6%	21	+0.16	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	72
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	72
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	71
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	70
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	70
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	69
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	68
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	68
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	68
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	67
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	67
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	66
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	66
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	66
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	66
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	66
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	66