Brayan Bello

P Boston Red Sox

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANExtFA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	31	31	165	4.53	3.96	22.0%	9.2%	1.8	K 21.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.94
2025	26	MIX3 levels	33	32	181	3.64	3.76	19.0%	8.2%	2.5	K 17.7% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.96
2026	27	MIX2 levels	30	15	135	4.33	3.41	19.5%	6.5%	2.4	K 19.0% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.47
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	25	25	148	4.18	4.15	19.5%	7.5%	1.3
2028PROJ	29	MLBBOS	24	24	142	4.22	4.27	18.9%	7.8%	1.0
2029PROJ	30	MLBBOS	22	22	133	4.37	4.47	18.2%	8.1%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.477First FA2030Options2

2027Ext$9M2028Ext$9M2029Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo68

Whiff%47

xwOBA vs29

K%23

CompsDavid Phelps (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · Bud Norris (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.18

FIP4.15

K%19.5%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP148

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

SL (13%)

SI (39%)

CU (3%)

CT-0.5 (15%)

CH-1.1 (20%)

FB-3.9 (48%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.477 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$9M	+1.3	$10M	+$1M
2028	Ext	$9M	+1.0	$7M	-$0.8M
2029	Ext	$9M	+0.6	$2M	-$5M
Totals		$28M		$20M	-$5M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$9.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	14	13	67	253	74	10	0	93%	4.8	19.9%	4.9%	14.9%	0.0%	1.60	2.05	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	14	13	67	253	74	10	0	93%	4.8	29.2%	4.0%	25.3%	0.0%	1.60	1.35	—
2019	20	A MLE	Greenville Drive	25	25	118	526	119	38	9	100%	4.7	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	2.0%	5.43	3.89	—
2019	20	A RAW	Greenville Drive	25	25	118	526	119	38	9	100%	4.7	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	1.7%	5.43	3.04	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	95	402	132	31	8	100%	4.5	26.1%	8.6%	17.6%	2.7%	3.87	3.46	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	95	402	132	31	8	100%	4.5	32.8%	7.7%	25.1%	2.0%	3.87	2.40	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	28	153	650	184	62	7	90%	4.9	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	1.2%	3.23	2.90	+3.8
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	28	153	650	184	62	7	90%	4.9	28.3%	9.5%	18.8%	1.1%	3.23	2.51	+4.7
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	163	690	136	45	25	100%	5.6	19.8%	6.7%	13.0%	3.7%	4.14	4.31	+1.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	163	690	136	45	25	100%	5.6	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	3.6%	4.14	4.25	+1.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.53	3.94	+1.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.53	3.94	+1.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	2.8%	4.53	3.96	+1.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	2.3%	3.64	3.96	+2.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	2.3%	3.64	3.96	+2.0
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	19.0%	8.2%	10.7%	2.2%	3.64	3.76	+2.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	135	585	114	38	12	50%	4.5	19.0%	6.4%	12.5%	2.1%	4.33	3.47	+2.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	135	585	114	38	12	50%	4.5	19.0%	6.4%	12.5%	2.1%	4.33	3.47	+2.4
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	15	135	585	114	38	12	50%	4.5	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	2.1%	4.33	3.41	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			126	108	660	2841	556	228	72	86%	5.2	19.6%	8.0%	11.5%	2.5%	4.13	3.87	+8.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	25	25	148	625	122	47	15	100%	5.9	19.5%	7.5%	12.0%	2.5%	4.18	4.15	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	24	24	142	599	113	46	16	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.8%	11.2%	2.6%	4.26	4.31	+1.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	133	563	102	45	16	100%	6.1	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	2.8%	4.41	4.51	+0.6
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	124	525	92	44	16	100%	5.9	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	3.1%	4.61	4.75	+0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	115	486	81	43	16	100%	6.1	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	3.3%	4.84	5.00	-0.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	106	445	70	41	16	100%	5.9	15.8%	9.2%	6.6%	3.6%	5.10	5.28	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	24	24	142	600	113	46	15	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.8%	11.2%	2.6%	4.22	4.27	+1.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	133	562	102	45	15	100%	6.0	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	2.8%	4.37	4.47	+0.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	124	524	91	44	16	100%	5.9	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	3.0%	4.57	4.71	+0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	115	486	81	43	16	100%	6.1	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	3.2%	4.79	4.95	-0.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	BOS	18	18	106	448	71	41	16	100%	5.9	15.8%	9.2%	6.6%	3.5%	5.05	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		229	211	1280	5458	1014	448	150	92%	5.6	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.07	+12.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	853	158	70	23	92%	5.6	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		214	194	1077	4587	948	370	105	91%	5.0	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	2.3%	3.97	3.64	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	852	176	69	20	91%	5.0	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	2.3%	3.97	3.64	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	19.5%	7.5%	2.5%	—	4.51	18.2%	10.2%	399	+0.36	—	—	—
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	76
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	71
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	69
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	67
Jason Johnson R 2002 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.3%	7.0%	3.4%	.300	4.27	12.9%	6.3%	596	-0.11	4.12	1,351	66
Francisco Cordova R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.7%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	754	65
Armando Galarraga R 2010 · 5.06 FIP	28	SP	5.06	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	6.67	14.1%	2.6%	67	+1.61	3.92	584	65
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	64
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	64
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	64
Ryan Rupe R 2002 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	17.5%	6.5%	2.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	467	64
Brian Bannister R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	14.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.287	5.42	13.3%	4.7%	128	+1.45	3.97	667	64
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	64
Kris Benson R 2003 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	14.3%	6.7%	2.9%	.313	4.46	13.4%	6.9%	558	+0.10	3.53	1,244	64
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	63
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	63
Josh Fogg R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	28	SP-	4.85	11.5%	5.7%	3.6%	.287	4.77	12.4%	5.7%	416	-0.08	0.87	1,159	63
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	63
Randy Wells R 2011 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	14.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.271	4.71	9.8%	-6.3%	29	-0.39	3.71	524	63
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2009 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	19.1%	10.2%	3.5%	.374	4.37	19.1%	8.0%	237	-0.36	3.77	790	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	130	18.7%	8.2%	1.06	4.35
Wade Miley ('25)	8.8	146	18.2%	8.1%	1.01	4.09
Jack Kramer ('39-'51, 14 WAR*)	8.2	149	17.7%*	8.3%*	1.00*	4.44*
Bob Ojeda ('80-'94, 22 WAR*)	9.4	135	19.1%*	8.5%*	0.97*	4.08*
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Gavin Floyd ('16)	6.2	104	18.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.37
Willard Nixon ('50-'58, 13 WAR*)	6.2	137	20.3%*	8.4%*	0.95*	4.36*