Ivan Armstrong

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 247 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	AALAA	43	4	70	5.14	5.01	23.3%	12.0%	—	K 18.9% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.88
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	2	69	3.41	3.84	22.1%	10.2%	—	K 18.0% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.56
2025	25	AAWSH	17	0	18	7.64	7.23	16.1%	13.8%	—	K 13.0% · BB 15.2% · FIP 7.85
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	17	0	18	5.17	5.17	18.2%	11.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBWSH	8	0	8	5.14	5.17	18.6%	11.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Thad Weber (age 28) · David Holman (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%18.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	14	14	56	243	47	32	2	100%	4.0	13.2%	16.5%	-3.3%	1.2%	3.38	4.71	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	14	14	56	243	47	32	2	100%	4.0	19.3%	13.2%	6.2%	0.8%	3.38	3.60	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	12	6	35	166	31	22	3	50%	2.9	12.7%	16.6%	-3.9%	2.5%	6.43	5.51	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Black	12	6	35	166	31	22	3	50%	2.9	18.7%	13.3%	5.4%	1.8%	6.43	4.33	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	57	238	60	22	0	0%	1.9	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	0.0%	3.30	2.88	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	57	238	60	22	0	0%	1.9	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	0.0%	3.30	2.16	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	33	137	39	10	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	4.0%	21.3%	2.6%	3.27	2.92	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	33	137	39	10	3	0%	1.2	28.5%	7.3%	21.2%	2.2%	3.27	2.83	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	43	4	70	326	76	39	13	9%	1.6	18.9%	13.2%	5.7%	4.9%	5.14	5.88	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	43	4	70	326	76	39	13	9%	1.6	23.3%	12.0%	11.3%	4.0%	5.14	5.01	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	69	294	65	30	7	6%	2.1	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	2.9%	3.41	4.56	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	69	294	65	30	7	6%	2.1	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	2.9%	3.41	4.56	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	69	294	65	30	7	6%	2.1	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	2.4%	3.41	3.84	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	17	0	18	87	14	12	5	0%	1.0	13.0%	15.2%	-2.1%	7.2%	7.64	7.85	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	17	0	18	87	14	12	5	0%	1.0	13.0%	15.2%	-2.1%	7.2%	7.64	7.85	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	17	0	18	87	14	12	5	0%	1.0	16.1%	13.8%	2.3%	5.7%	7.64	7.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	17	0	18	76	14	9	2	0%	1.1	18.2%	11.6%	6.6%	3.2%	5.17	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	84	16	10	3	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	3.3%	5.14	5.17	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	8	0	8	34	6	4	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	3.3%	5.14	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	6	4	1	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	3.3%	5.14	4.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	106	27	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	3.3%	5.14	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		176	26	338	1491	258	187	42	15%	1.9	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	2.8%	4.26	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	15	200	883	153	110	25	15%	1.9	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	2.8%	4.26	4.75	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ivan Armstrong (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	18.2%	11.6%	3.2%	—	5.17	18.6%	7.1%	20	+0.00	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	84
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	82
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	82
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	81
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	81
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	80
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	80
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	80
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	79
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	79
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	79
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	79
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79