Anderson Paulino

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	46	59	4.12	2.57	21.1%	8.4%	—	K 16.5% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.16
2024	25	AANorthwest Ark…	48	53	5.57	4.06	21.0%	8.7%	—	K 17.0% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.87
2025	26	AANorthwest Ark…	6	8	12.96	5.50	19.6%	8.7%	—	K 19.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.94
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	35	37	4.59	4.59	20.7%	9.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBKC	10	11	4.64	4.69	20.7%	9.6%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 28) · Luis Mateo (age 27) · Neil Wagner (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%20.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	8	2	16	74	11	10	0	25%	2.0	10.1%	16.9%	-6.8%	0.0%	7.47	4.39	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	8	2	16	74	11	10	0	25%	2.0	14.9%	13.5%	1.4%	0.0%	7.47	3.61	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	14	10	61	273	44	24	5	71%	4.3	11.0%	11.0%	-0.0%	2.6%	4.90	4.97	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	14	10	61	273	44	24	5	71%	4.3	16.1%	8.8%	7.3%	1.8%	4.90	3.91	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	12	87	392	86	23	10	50%	3.6	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	2.6%	4.57	4.01	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	12	87	392	86	23	10	50%	3.6	21.9%	5.9%	16.1%	2.6%	4.57	3.41	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	36	6	65	279	54	20	3	17%	1.8	14.9%	8.2%	6.7%	1.3%	4.59	3.59	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	36	6	65	279	54	20	3	17%	1.8	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	1.1%	4.59	2.96	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	59	261	55	22	1	0%	1.3	16.5%	9.5%	7.0%	0.5%	4.12	3.16	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	59	261	55	22	1	0%	1.3	21.1%	8.4%	12.6%	0.4%	4.12	2.57	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	48	0	53	252	53	22	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	3.6%	5.57	4.87	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	48	0	53	252	53	22	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	3.6%	5.57	4.87	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	48	0	53	252	53	22	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.7%	12.3%	2.8%	5.57	4.06	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	0	8	46	9	4	2	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	4.3%	12.96	4.94	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	0	8	46	9	4	2	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	4.3%	12.96	4.94	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	0	8	46	9	4	2	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	4.3%	12.96	5.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	35	0	37	156	32	15	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	34	0	35	149	31	14	5	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.64	4.69	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	10	0	11	46	10	4	1	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.64	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	4	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.64	4.31	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	72	18	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.64	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		182	30	348	1577	238	144	33	16%	1.9	15.1%	9.2%	5.9%	2.1%	5.04	4.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	17	200	905	137	83	19	16%	1.9	15.1%	9.2%	5.9%	2.1%	5.04	4.14	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Paulino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	20.7%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.69	20.7%	11.1%	35	+0.10	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	80
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	79
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	78
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	78
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	78
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	78
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.7%	9.5%	1.20	4.61
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*