Brendan Nail prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Brendan Nail P Worcester Red Sox

Age 30 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 120

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%21.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2017	21	A RAW	Greenville Drive	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2018	22	A MLE	Greenville Drive	5	0	8	37	13	5	0	0%	1.5	35.1%	13.5%	21.6%	0.0%	3.52	1.84	—
2018	22	A RAW	Greenville Drive	5	0	8	37	13	5	0	0%	1.5	35.1%	13.5%	21.6%	0.0%	3.52	1.67	—
2019	23	A MLE	Greenville Drive	15	0	25	115	37	16	3	0%	1.7	23.8%	16.4%	7.4%	3.1%	3.96	4.88	—
2019	23	A RAW	Greenville Drive	15	0	25	115	37	16	3	0%	1.7	32.2%	13.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.96	3.62	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	47	197	74	17	4	0%	1.5	29.3%	9.6%	19.7%	2.9%	3.61	3.45	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	47	197	74	17	4	0%	1.5	37.6%	8.6%	28.9%	2.0%	3.61	2.15	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	40	0	41	176	49	20	4	0%	1.0	22.6%	12.5%	10.1%	2.7%	3.76	4.27	—
2022	26	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	40	0	41	176	49	20	4	0%	1.0	27.8%	11.4%	16.5%	2.3%	3.76	3.44	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	5	53	234	54	25	6	15%	1.6	19.3%	10.5%	8.8%	2.8%	2.87	4.36	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	5	53	234	54	25	6	15%	1.6	19.3%	10.5%	8.8%	2.8%	2.87	4.36	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	5	53	234	54	25	6	15%	1.6	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.6%	2.87	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.55	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	32	0	34	143	30	14	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.1%	11.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.73	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.1%	11.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	9	4	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.1%	11.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	76	19	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.1%	11.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		127	5	175	762	183	89	21	4%	1.4	24.0%	11.7%	12.3%	2.7%	3.45	4.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	6	200	871	209	102	24	4%	1.4	24.0%	11.7%	12.3%	2.7%	3.45	4.05	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Nail (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.5%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.73	21.2%	11.2%	34	+0.18	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	91
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	81
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	80
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	79
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	77
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	77
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	77
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	77
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	75
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	74
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	74
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	73
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	73
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	73
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	73
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	72
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	72
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	72
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	72
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	21.4%	9.9%	1.20	4.60
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16