Hayden Deal prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Hayden Deal P Mississippi Braves

Age 31 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 122

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%20.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	31	136	27	8	1	0%	2.2	12.9%	7.2%	5.7%	1.2%	3.23	3.56	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	31	136	27	8	1	0%	2.2	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	0.7%	3.23	2.55	—
2018	23	A MLE	Rome Braves	27	5	79	319	82	16	3	19%	2.9	19.0%	5.9%	13.1%	1.4%	2.17	3.01	—
2018	23	A RAW	Rome Braves	27	5	79	319	82	16	3	19%	2.9	25.7%	5.0%	20.7%	0.9%	2.17	2.12	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	23	22	119	499	99	32	6	96%	5.2	15.3%	7.4%	7.9%	1.6%	3.24	3.64	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Florida Fire Frogs	23	22	119	499	99	32	6	96%	5.2	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	1.2%	3.24	2.90	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	23	17	88	375	72	33	5	74%	3.8	15.6%	9.7%	5.9%	1.9%	3.77	4.03	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	23	17	88	375	72	33	5	74%	3.8	19.2%	8.8%	10.4%	1.3%	3.77	3.33	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	31	4	59	256	53	26	2	13%	1.9	16.8%	11.2%	5.6%	1.0%	4.12	3.65	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	31	4	59	256	53	26	2	13%	1.9	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	0.8%	4.12	3.07	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	29	5	48	212	41	22	2	17%	1.7	15.7%	11.4%	4.2%	1.4%	3.56	4.01	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	29	5	48	212	41	22	2	17%	1.7	15.7%	11.4%	4.2%	1.4%	3.56	4.01	—
2023	28	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	29	5	48	212	41	22	2	17%	1.7	19.3%	10.4%	9.0%	0.9%	3.56	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	10.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.65	4.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ATL	23	0	25	104	21	11	3	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	3.2%	4.75	4.84	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	ATL	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	3.2%	4.75	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	33	7	3	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	3.2%	4.75	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	78	26	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	3.2%	4.75	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		147	53	424	1797	289	155	27	36%	2.9	16.1%	8.6%	7.5%	1.5%	3.31	3.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	25	200	848	136	73	13	36%	2.9	16.1%	8.6%	7.5%	1.5%	3.31	3.65	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Deal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	20.4%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.84	20.2%	9.8%	25	+0.19	—	—	—
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	74
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	70
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	69
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	69
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	68
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	65
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	63
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	63
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	59
Alejandro Soto L 2017 · 4.36 FIP	31	SW	4.36	13.8%	3.3%	3.7%	.323	4.03	17.1%	10.2%	61	-0.33	3.96	280	59
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	59
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	59
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	58
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	58
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	56
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	56
Luis Perez L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	30	SU	4.00	15.2%	12.6%	1.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	173	56
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	671	56
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	55
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.3%	10.3%	1.18	4.70
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57