Matt Merrill

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 202 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	25	0	37	3.86	2.24	35.3%	12.0%	—	K 26.5% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.57
2024	26	A+DET	36	0	50	1.79	2.84	33.5%	18.2%	—	K 25.8% · BB 20.9% · FIP 3.94
2025	27	AADET	15	1	21	3.48	3.73	27.9%	18.6%	—	K 22.6% · BB 20.5% · FIP 4.51
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	15	0	16	5.12	5.12	23.6%	16.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBDET	6	0	6	5.15	5.22	23.2%	15.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Thad Weber (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%23.6%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	6	2	9	51	6	7	1	33%	1.6	8.0%	17.2%	-9.2%	2.7%	11.57	6.10	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	6	2	9	51	6	7	1	33%	1.6	11.8%	13.7%	-2.0%	2.0%	11.57	5.46	—
2021	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	46	207	71	22	2	39%	2.6	25.4%	12.5%	12.8%	1.1%	4.66	3.14	—
2021	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	46	207	71	22	2	39%	2.6	34.3%	10.6%	23.7%	1.0%	4.66	2.02	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	20	7	41	200	53	39	6	35%	2.0	20.4%	22.4%	-2.0%	3.4%	6.86	6.06	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	20	7	41	200	53	39	6	35%	2.0	26.5%	19.5%	7.0%	3.0%	6.86	5.29	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	37	167	59	20	2	0%	1.5	26.5%	14.0%	12.5%	1.7%	3.86	3.57	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	37	167	59	20	2	0%	1.5	35.3%	12.0%	23.4%	1.2%	3.86	2.24	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	36	0	50	209	70	38	1	0%	1.4	25.8%	20.9%	4.9%	0.7%	1.79	3.94	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	36	0	50	209	70	38	1	0%	1.4	25.8%	20.9%	4.9%	0.7%	1.79	3.94	—
2024	26	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	36	0	50	209	70	38	1	0%	1.4	33.5%	18.2%	15.3%	0.5%	1.79	2.84	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	15	1	21	86	24	16	1	7%	1.4	22.6%	20.5%	2.1%	1.3%	3.48	4.51	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	15	1	21	86	24	16	1	7%	1.4	22.6%	20.5%	2.1%	1.3%	3.48	4.51	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	15	1	21	86	24	16	1	7%	1.4	27.9%	18.6%	9.3%	1.2%	3.48	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	15	0	16	68	16	11	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.3%	7.3%	2.9%	5.12	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	20	13	3	0%	1.1	23.2%	15.9%	7.3%	3.1%	5.15	5.22	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	15.9%	7.3%	3.1%	5.15	5.22	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	15.9%	7.3%	3.1%	5.15	4.84	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	128	32	0%	1.1	23.2%	15.9%	7.3%	3.1%	5.15	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		120	17	205	920	215	164	16	14%	1.7	23.4%	17.9%	5.5%	1.7%	4.44	4.33	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	17	200	899	210	161	15	14%	1.7	23.4%	17.9%	5.5%	1.7%	4.44	4.33	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Merrill (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	23.6%	16.3%	2.9%	—	5.22	23.2%	7.3%	20	+0.10	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	74
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	74
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	73
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	73
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	73
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	73
Edwar Ramirez R 2010 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	18.5%	16.7%	2.0%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	109	73
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	72
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	72
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	71
Jordan Jankowski R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	21.8%	16.9%	2.5%	.396	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	196	71
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	71
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	321	70
Grant Balfour R 2007 · 4.01 FIP	29	SU	4.01	24.8%	16.5%	1.7%	.406	2.81	28.4%	18.8%	181	-1.20	2.04	533	70
Zack Jones R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	27.7%	24.1%	2.2%	.167	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	109	69
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	69