Matt Peacock prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Matt Peacock P Buffalo Bisons

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.75

FIP4.84

K%19.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†4545

SL+0.6

FB-0.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	99	427	90	28	9	57%	3.5	16.0%	7.6%	8.4%	2.7%	4.20	4.20	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	16	99	427	90	28	9	57%	3.5	21.1%	6.6%	14.5%	2.1%	4.20	3.31	—
2019	25	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	21	21	115	464	81	43	5	100%	5.5	14.1%	10.2%	3.9%	1.3%	2.97	3.93	—
2019	25	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	21	21	115	464	81	43	5	100%	5.5	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	1.1%	2.97	3.38	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	8	90	405	53	23	15	20%	2.3	13.0%	6.0%	7.0%	3.6%	5.28	4.72	-0.2
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	8	90	405	53	23	15	20%	2.3	13.1%	5.7%	7.4%	3.7%	5.28	4.85	-0.3
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	41	187	31	12	7	0%	1.2	16.4%	5.5%	10.9%	5.2%	5.09	5.25	-0.3
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	0	41	187	31	12	7	0%	1.2	16.6%	6.4%	10.2%	3.7%	5.09	4.70	-0.1
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	2	25	117	22	17	7	10%	1.2	14.3%	13.4%	0.9%	7.4%	6.20	7.64	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	2	25	117	22	17	7	10%	1.2	14.3%	13.4%	0.9%	7.4%	6.20	7.64	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	2	25	117	22	17	7	10%	1.2	18.8%	14.5%	4.3%	6.0%	6.20	7.07	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			44	8	96	432	56	27	14	18%	2.2	13.0%	6.2%	6.7%	3.2%	4.95	4.67	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.1%	4.75	4.84	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TOR	48	0	50	211	41	23	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	3.4%	4.92	5.06	-0.3
2028	34	MLB MLE	TOR	43	0	45	192	36	21	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.6%	5.13	5.31	-0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	TOR	39	0	41	172	31	20	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.6%	6.3%	3.9%	5.39	5.60	-0.5
2027	33	MLB CTX	TOR	17	0	18	76	15	8	3	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	3.4%	4.92	5.06	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	TOR	14	0	15	63	12	7	2	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.6%	5.13	5.31	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	11	46	8	5	2	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.6%	6.3%	3.9%	5.39	5.60	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	8	141	619	91	48	21	9%	1.6	14.7%	7.7%	7.0%	3.3%	5.00	4.67	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		123	11	200	880	129	68	30	9%	1.6	14.7%	7.7%	7.0%	3.3%	5.00	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		145	47	370	1600	234	130	50	32%	2.5	14.6%	8.1%	6.5%	3.2%	4.31	4.63	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	25	200	866	126	70	27	32%	2.5	14.6%	8.1%	6.5%	3.2%	4.31	4.63	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Peacock (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	19.8%	10.5%	3.1%	—	5.31	18.7%	7.5%	136	+0.47	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	74
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	74
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	72
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	71
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	71
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	70
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	69
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	68
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	68
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	68
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	67
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	66
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	65
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	65
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	65
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	65
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	65
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	57	16.9%	9.7%	1.31	5.00
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26