Keaton Winn

P San Francisco Giants

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs MLB ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPD6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	13	12	59	6.86	4.59	21.3%	8.7%	0.2	K 20.2% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.71
2025	27	MIX4 levels	25	4	37	6.99	3.85	20.3%	6.4%	0.3	K 16.7% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.77
2026	28	MIX4 levels	47	2	46	3.13	3.56	19.3%	9.6%	0.5	K 18.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.68
2027PROJ	29	MLBSF	36	0	38	4.65	4.47	20.1%	8.9%	0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBSF	53	0	56	4.67	4.68	19.4%	9.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBSF	50	0	52	4.81	4.91	18.7%	9.6%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo72

xwOBA vs54

Whiff%34

K%27

CompsRamon Delgado (age 29) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31) · Ryan Jensen (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 96

ERA4.65

FIP4.47

K%20.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

FB+1.7 (47%)

SI (22%)

SL (7%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	26	20	127	526	99	26	9	77%	4.9	13.9%	5.8%	8.1%	2.1%	3.32	3.79	—
2019	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	26	20	127	526	99	26	9	77%	4.9	18.8%	4.9%	13.9%	1.7%	3.32	3.08	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	25	108	461	125	32	9	93%	4.0	20.7%	8.0%	12.7%	2.4%	4.08	3.68	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	25	108	461	125	32	9	93%	4.0	27.1%	6.9%	20.2%	2.0%	4.08	2.76	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	100	435	101	34	13	73%	3.9	21.1%	7.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.75	3.97	+1.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	100	435	101	34	13	73%	3.9	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	3.0%	4.75	3.79	+1.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	59	253	54	22	10	92%	4.5	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.1%	6.86	4.71	+0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	59	253	54	22	10	92%	4.5	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.1%	6.86	4.71	+0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	59	253	54	22	10	92%	4.5	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	4.0%	6.86	4.59	+0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	4	37	172	35	11	5	16%	1.5	16.7%	6.4%	10.4%	4.2%	6.99	4.77	-0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	4	37	172	35	11	5	16%	1.5	16.7%	6.4%	10.4%	4.2%	6.99	4.77	-0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	4	37	172	35	11	5	16%	1.5	20.3%	6.4%	14.0%	2.9%	6.99	3.85	+0.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	47	2	46	187	36	18	3	4%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	1.8%	3.13	3.68	+0.5
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	47	2	46	187	36	18	3	4%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	1.8%	3.13	3.68	+0.5
2026	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	47	2	46	187	36	18	3	4%	1.0	19.3%	9.6%	9.6%	1.6%	3.13	3.56	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			72	17	151	628	125	46	19	24%	2.1	19.9%	7.3%	12.6%	3.0%	5.20	4.00	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SF	36	0	38	160	32	14	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	2.8%	4.65	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SF	56	0	59	249	48	23	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.68	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	SF	52	0	55	232	43	22	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	9.6%	9.1%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	SF	53	0	56	236	46	22	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.68	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	SF	50	0	52	220	41	21	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.6%	9.1%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	17	259	1085	212	89	33	10%	1.5	19.5%	8.2%	11.4%	3.1%	5.00	4.18	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		135	13	200	838	164	69	25	10%	1.5	19.5%	8.2%	11.4%	3.1%	5.00	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		164	82	478	2034	375	148	57	50%	2.9	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	2.8%	4.50	3.99	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	34	200	851	157	62	24	50%	2.9	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	2.8%	4.50	3.99	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keaton Winn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	20.1%	8.9%	2.8%	—	4.79	19.1%	9.7%	114	+0.32	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	69
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	69
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	66
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	65
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	65
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	64
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	64
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	64
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	63
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	63
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	63
Felipe Arredondo R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	29	SW	3.92	17.2%	6.6%	2.6%	.281	4.71	15.4%	8.2%	139	+0.79	3.92	337	62
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	62
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	61
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	61
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	701	60
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	616	60
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	60
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	60
Dinelson Lamet R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	29	SW	3.67	27.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.339	4.61	20.7%	8.6%	176	+0.94	2.11	778	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	51	19.6%	8.4%	1.18	4.95
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*