Ron Marinaccio
P
San Diego Padres
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.31
FIP4.56
K%20.8%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP9
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p2518.6%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
SL+1.5 (7%)
CT+0.9 (19%)
CH+0.5 (30%)
FB-1.3 (44%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 13 | 0 | 16 | 65 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 2.30 | 2.75 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 13 | 0 | 16 | 65 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 6.2% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 2.30 | 1.95 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 10 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 27.0% | 4.5% | 22.5% | 1.7% | 1.77 | 2.32 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 10 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 39.8% | 3.6% | 36.1% | 1.2% | 1.77 | 0.94 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 18 | 0 | 32 | 140 | 40 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 4.18 | 3.24 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 18 | 0 | 32 | 140 | 40 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 28.6% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 4.18 | 2.30 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 66 | 263 | 105 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 33.4% | 10.7% | 22.7% | 1.5% | 2.04 | 2.44 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 66 | 263 | 105 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 39.9% | 9.9% | 30.0% | 1.5% | 2.04 | 1.89 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 55 | 228 | 80 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.9% | 13.3% | 17.7% | 1.0% | 2.14 | 2.73 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 55 | 228 | 80 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 12.3% | 22.8% | 2.2% | 2.14 | 2.90 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 63 | 282 | 69 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 16.3% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 5.17 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 63 | 282 | 69 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 16.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 63 | 258 | 66 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 2.71 | 3.53 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 63 | 258 | 66 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 9.3% | 16.3% | 2.3% | 2.71 | 3.39 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 57 | 254 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 4.26 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 57 | 254 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 0 | 46 | 199 | 37 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 4.89 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SD | 9 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SD | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | SD | — | — | 55 | 238 | 45 | 22 | 10 | — | — | 19.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 4.79 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | SD | — | — | 55 | 233 | 45 | 22 | 10 | — | — | 19.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 4.79 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 44 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.96 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 39 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 5.25 | 5.45 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SD | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 34 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.55 | 5.75 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.96 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SD | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 5.25 | 5.45 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 31 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.55 | 5.75 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 275 | 0 | 313 | 1323 | 304 | 147 | 45 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.44 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 194 | 94 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 320 | 0 | 418 | 1772 | 440 | 202 | 40 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 2.2% | 3.40 | 3.68 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 0 | 200 | 848 | 211 | 97 | 19 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 2.2% | 3.40 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ron Marinaccio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.2% | — | 5.44 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 141 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 87 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 80 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 76 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 75 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 75 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 75 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 75 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 74 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 74 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 74 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 73 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 73 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.15 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 131 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 73 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.48 | 4.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |