Billy Lescher
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.2%
IP15
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 17 | 0 | 22 | 91 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 1.5% | 2.45 | 3.35 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 19 | 0 | 29 | 116 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.92 | 2.76 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 34 | 4 | 65 | 266 | 71 | 17 | 7 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 2.91 | 3.90 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 4.60 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 41 | 1 | 44 | 182 | 45 | 12 | 3 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 19 | 0 | 23 | 107 | 24 | 9 | 5 | 20.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.94 | 5.97 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | DET | 15 | — | 15 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 157 | 5 | 215 | 894 | 184 | 65 | 28 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 3.64 | 4.03 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 5 | 200 | 832 | 171 | 60 | 26 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 3.64 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Billy Lescher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.42 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 20 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 90 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 78 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 78 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 78 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 77 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 77 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.17 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 3.79 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.62 | 3.17 | 272 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 76 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 76 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.21 | 1.72 | 402 | 76 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 75 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.