Ricky Karcher
P
Reno Aces
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%23.0%
BB%15.6%
K-BB%7.4%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+0.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | AZL Reds | 7 | 4 | 14 | 76 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 57% | 2.0 | 12.5% | 21.4% | -8.9% | 1.8% | 10.67 | 5.76 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | AZL Reds | 7 | 4 | 14 | 76 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 57% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 17.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 10.67 | 4.77 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 10 | 10 | 31 | 166 | 22 | 27 | 3 | 100% | 3.1 | 9.0% | 20.3% | -11.3% | 2.5% | 8.33 | 6.30 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 10 | 10 | 31 | 166 | 22 | 27 | 3 | 100% | 3.1 | 13.3% | 16.3% | -3.0% | 1.8% | 8.33 | 5.53 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 27 | 137 | 48 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 34.5% | -12.2% | 1.4% | 3.95 | 6.33 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 27 | 137 | 48 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.0% | 28.5% | 6.6% | 0.7% | 3.95 | 4.34 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 57 | 251 | 88 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 16.3% | 13.4% | 1.0% | 3.65 | 3.23 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 57 | 251 | 88 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 15.1% | 19.9% | 1.2% | 3.65 | 2.69 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 61 | 294 | 70 | 72 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 25.7% | -4.5% | 1.0% | 4.70 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 61 | 294 | 70 | 72 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 24.5% | -0.7% | 1.0% | 4.70 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 34 | 161 | 42 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 25.7% | -3.2% | 0.5% | 7.49 | 4.76 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 34 | 161 | 42 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 24.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 7.49 | 4.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 0 | 24 | 100 | 23 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 15.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 22 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 15.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 15.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.78 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 171 | 128 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.78 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 181 | 14 | 225 | 1085 | 228 | 255 | 14 | 8% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 23.5% | -2.5% | 1.3% | 5.65 | 5.01 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 12 | 200 | 966 | 203 | 227 | 12 | 8% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 23.5% | -2.5% | 1.3% | 5.65 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ricky Karcher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 23.0% | 15.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.99 | 22.8% | 7.6% | 23 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 83 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 78 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 77 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.02 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | .325 | 4.10 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 103 | +0.08 | 4.02 | 328 | 76 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 76 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 76 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 272 | 76 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.2% | .363 | 3.59 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 181 | -0.37 | 3.07 | 227 | 75 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.63 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.94 | 2.96 | 230 | 75 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 75 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 75 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | .306 | 3.27 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 110 | -1.03 | 2.50 | 520 | 74 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 74 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 74 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.13 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.32 | 2.37 | 363 | 74 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 74 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.66 | 23.1% | 15.5% | 2.8% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 197 | 74 |