Ricky Karcher — OGILVIE

Ricky Karcher P Reno Aces

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%23.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

SL+0.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	7	4	14	76	14	13	1	57%	2.0	12.5%	21.4%	-8.9%	1.8%	10.67	5.76	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	7	4	14	76	14	13	1	57%	2.0	18.4%	17.1%	1.3%	1.3%	10.67	4.77	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	Greeneville Reds	10	10	31	166	22	27	3	100%	3.1	9.0%	20.3%	-11.3%	2.5%	8.33	6.30	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Greeneville Reds	10	10	31	166	22	27	3	100%	3.1	13.3%	16.3%	-3.0%	1.8%	8.33	5.53	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	27	137	48	39	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	34.5%	-12.2%	1.3%	3.95	6.30	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	27	137	48	39	1	0%	1.0	35.0%	28.5%	6.6%	0.7%	3.95	4.34	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	251	88	38	3	0%	1.1	29.7%	16.3%	13.4%	1.2%	3.65	3.30	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	57	251	88	38	3	0%	1.1	35.1%	15.1%	19.9%	1.2%	3.65	2.69	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	61	294	70	72	3	0%	1.2	20.8%	22.0%	-1.3%	1.1%	4.70	4.73	-0.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	61	294	70	72	3	0%	1.2	23.8%	24.5%	-0.7%	1.0%	4.70	4.97	-0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	34	161	42	39	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	22.8%	-0.7%	0.6%	7.49	4.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	34	161	42	39	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	22.8%	-0.7%	0.6%	7.49	4.46	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	34	161	42	39	1	0%	1.0	26.1%	24.2%	1.9%	0.6%	7.49	4.47	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	19	0	20	84	20	12	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	19	12	3	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	3.1%	4.95	5.02	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	3.1%	4.95	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	7	5	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	15.2%	5.0%	2.8%	4.36	4.83	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	839	168	120	24	0%	1.0	20.2%	15.2%	5.0%	2.8%	4.36	4.83	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		181	14	225	1085	226	240	14	8%	1.2	20.8%	22.1%	-1.2%	1.3%	5.65	4.87	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	12	200	966	201	213	13	8%	1.2	20.8%	22.1%	-1.2%	1.3%	5.65	4.87	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricky Karcher (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	23.1%	14.1%	2.9%	—	5.02	22.8%	8.9%	20	+0.12	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	75
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	75
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	75
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	75
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	73
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	72
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	72
Scott Dohmann R 2007 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	19.1%	12.5%	2.2%	.289	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	15	+0.10	4.28	173	72
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	72
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	72
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	72
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	72