Tom Cosgrove — OGILVIE

Tom Cosgrove P Rochester Red Wings

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.04

FIP4.27

K%19.3%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.6

Whiff%

p1016.8%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

CH+0.6 (12%)

FB (45%)

SL (42%)

SI (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	2	0	3	12	5	0	0	0%	1.7	41.7%	0.0%	41.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.42	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	2	0	3	12	5	0	0	0%	1.7	41.7%	0.0%	41.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2018	22	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	24	21	116	514	122	34	6	88%	4.8	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	1.3%	3.71	3.31	—
2018	22	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	24	21	116	514	122	34	6	88%	4.8	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	1.2%	3.71	2.55	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	33	151	33	13	5	100%	3.7	14.7%	10.1%	4.6%	5.1%	5.45	5.95	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	33	151	33	13	5	100%	3.7	21.9%	8.6%	13.2%	3.3%	5.45	4.25	—
2021	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	22	0	27	106	32	6	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	6.2%	18.2%	2.6%	2.36	3.26	—
2021	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	22	0	27	106	32	6	2	0%	1.2	30.2%	5.7%	24.5%	1.9%	2.36	2.35	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	230	82	25	9	0%	1.2	30.2%	11.7%	18.5%	4.3%	3.72	4.40	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	230	82	25	9	0%	1.2	35.7%	10.9%	24.8%	3.9%	3.72	3.60	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	63	1	61	239	54	23	3	2%	1.0	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	1.4%	1.63	3.18	+1.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	63	1	61	239	54	23	3	2%	1.0	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	1.4%	1.63	3.18	+1.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	63	1	61	239	54	23	3	2%	1.0	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	1.3%	1.63	3.10	+1.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	46	214	52	20	8	2%	0.9	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	3.4%	7.04	4.28	+0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	46	214	52	20	8	2%	0.9	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	3.4%	7.04	4.28	+0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	46	214	52	20	8	2%	0.9	24.3%	9.3%	15.0%	3.7%	7.04	4.40	+0.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	241	60	30	4	0%	1.2	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	1.7%	4.36	3.75	+0.5
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	241	60	30	4	0%	1.2	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	1.7%	4.36	3.75	+0.5
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	54	241	60	30	4	0%	1.2	24.9%	12.4%	12.4%	1.7%	4.36	3.51	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			92	0	86	371	76	31	9	0%	0.9	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	2.4%	4.59	3.77	+0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	48	0	47	215	46	28	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	2.4%	5.40	4.35	+0.1
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	48	0	47	215	46	28	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	2.4%	5.40	4.35	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	WSH	30	0	30	141	32	22	2	0%	1.0	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	1.4%	4.15	3.94	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	WSH	18	0	16	74	14	6	3	0%	0.9	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	4.1%	7.71	4.75	-0.0
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	WSH	18	0	16	74	14	6	3	0%	0.9	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	4.1%	7.71	4.75	-0.0
ROS	30	MLB MLE	WSH	4	0	5	19	4	2	0	0%	1.1	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	2.5%	4.04	4.27	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	2.5%	4.04	4.27	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	51	234	50	30	5	—	—	21.2%	12.9%	8.4%	2.3%	5.28	4.35	+0.1
FULL	30	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	21	88	50	30	5	—	—	56.4%	34.2%	22.2%	6.2%	12.95	6.08	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	55	231	44	25	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.7%	8.3%	3.0%	4.68	4.86	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	48	0	50	213	40	23	7	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.2%	4.90	5.08	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	WSH	50	0	52	220	42	23	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	10.7%	8.3%	3.0%	4.68	4.86	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	46	0	48	203	38	22	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.2%	4.90	5.08	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	0	191	812	159	79	23	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	2.8%	4.68	4.20	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	851	167	83	24	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	2.8%	4.68	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		314	32	442	1922	400	182	47	10%	1.4	20.8%	9.5%	11.4%	2.5%	4.05	3.89	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	14	200	870	181	82	21	10%	1.4	20.8%	9.5%	11.4%	2.5%	4.05	3.89	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tom Cosgrove (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	19.5%	10.9%	2.5%	—	4.97	18.8%	8.0%	105	+0.36	—	—	—
Josh Edgin L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SU	4.02	16.3%	10.2%	1.8%	.303	3.63	29.2%	20.0%	43	-0.39	3.63	113	73
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	72
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	72
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	71
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	71
Zack Britton L 2018 · 3.89 FIP	30	SU	3.89	20.1%	12.4%	1.7%	.234	3.57	21.1%	8.3%	99	-0.32	1.58	309	70
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	70
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	69
Vidal Nuño L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	30	SU	4.57	20.7%	8.1%	4.0%	.315	4.17	20.6%	15.0%	125	-0.40	4.00	424	68
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	68
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	68
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	68
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	67
Luis Avilán L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SU	4.51	21.3%	9.9%	3.5%	.304	5.40	22.2%	12.2%	26	+0.89	2.62	256	66
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	66
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	66
Dario Alvarez L 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	20.7%	12.4%	1.0%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	160	66
Grant Dayton L 2017 · 5.39 FIP	29	SU	5.39	19.6%	10.8%	4.7%	.212	4.52	30.4%	23.8%	66	-0.87	1.63	277	66
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	66
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	19.0%	10.9%	1.12	4.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64