Tom Cosgrove
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.41
FIP4.40
xFIP3.54
SIERA3.47
K%22.4%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%11.6%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†4545
FB Velo
p1090.3
Whiff%
p1018.9%
K%
p3319.7%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
CH+0.6 (12%)
FB (45%)
SL (42%)
SI (33%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 24 | 21 | 116 | 514 | 122 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 3.71 | 3.35 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 9 | 9 | 33 | 151 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 14.7% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 5.45 | 6.06 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 22 | 0 | 27 | 106 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 24.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 2.36 | 3.21 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 48 | 0 | 56 | 230 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 30.2% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 3.72 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 63 | 1 | 61 | 239 | 54 | 23 | 3 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.5% | 1.63 | 3.24 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 52 | 1 | 46 | 214 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 7.04 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 46 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 60 | 30 | 4 | 22.3% | 13.5% | 1.7% | 4.36 | 3.88 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | HOU | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 46 | 198 | 42 | 24 | 5 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.59 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 30 | 18 | 4 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 17.5% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 16.7% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 5.25 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 273 | 32 | 402 | 1737 | 374 | 167 | 44 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 3.89 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 16 | 200 | 864 | 186 | 83 | 22 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tom Cosgrove (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 2.5% | — | 4.81 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 110 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 75 |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | .234 | 3.60 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 99 | -0.28 | 1.60 | 309 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 74 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 73 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 72 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 72 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 70 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 70 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 68 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.0% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 160 | 68 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 68 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 67 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 67 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 67 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 66 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 66 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.60 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 3.6% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 153 | 66 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 66 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 65 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.71 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 108 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.