Tom Cosgrove
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.42
FIP4.69
K%20.2%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%8.0%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.3
Whiff%
p1018.9%
K%
p3319.7%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
CH+0.6 (12%)
FB (45%)
SL (42%)
SI (33%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.42 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 24 | 21 | 116 | 514 | 122 | 34 | 6 | 88% | 4.8 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 1.1% | 3.71 | 3.22 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 24 | 21 | 116 | 514 | 122 | 34 | 6 | 88% | 4.8 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 17.1% | 1.2% | 3.71 | 2.55 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 33 | 151 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 3.7 | 14.7% | 10.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.45 | 6.30 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 33 | 151 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 5.45 | 4.25 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 22 | 0 | 27 | 106 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 6.2% | 18.2% | 3.1% | 2.36 | 3.51 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 22 | 0 | 27 | 106 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.2% | 5.7% | 24.5% | 1.9% | 2.36 | 2.35 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 230 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.2% | 11.7% | 18.5% | 4.4% | 3.72 | 4.42 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 230 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 35.7% | 10.9% | 24.8% | 3.9% | 3.72 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 1 | 61 | 239 | 54 | 23 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 1.6% | 1.63 | 3.26 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 1 | 61 | 239 | 54 | 23 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 1.63 | 3.10 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 46 | 214 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 0.9 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 7.04 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 46 | 214 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 0.9 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 7.04 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 60 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 4.36 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 60 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 4.36 | 3.51 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 61 | 0 | 62 | 284 | 63 | 44 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 4.09 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | HOU | 54 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 48 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 118 | 523 | 111 | 73 | 10 | — | — | 21.3% | 14.0% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 4.54 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 58 | 247 | 111 | 73 | 10 | — | — | 45.0% | 29.6% | 15.4% | 4.0% | 8.58 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 46 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 48 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 41 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 4.91 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 43 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 39 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 4.91 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 225 | 0 | 228 | 964 | 195 | 107 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.18 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 94 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 327 | 32 | 457 | 1991 | 420 | 209 | 47 | 10% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 3.95 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 14 | 200 | 871 | 184 | 92 | 21 | 10% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tom Cosgrove (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.99 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 105 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | .234 | 3.56 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 99 | -0.32 | 1.59 | 309 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .303 | 3.36 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.66 | 3.36 | 113 | 73 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 72 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 71 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 71 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 70 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 70 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 70 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 70 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 68 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.1% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 160 | 67 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 67 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 66 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .304 | 5.19 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +0.67 | 2.68 | 256 | 65 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 64 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 64 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.42 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | .202 | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.33 | 2.37 | 296 | 64 |
| Adam Loewen L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 63 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 63 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 1.07 | 4.66 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |