Phoenix Sanders prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Phoenix Sanders P Sacramento River Cats

Age 31 RHP 5'10" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%22.2%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.3

Whiff%

p1017.4%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

SL+4.1

FB-1.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	14	5	39	160	40	10	7	36%	2.8	17.0%	7.8%	9.2%	6.1%	4.42	6.02	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	14	5	39	160	40	10	7	36%	2.8	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	4.4%	4.42	4.16	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	64	269	89	22	2	0%	1.9	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	0.9%	3.08	2.75	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	64	269	89	22	2	0%	1.9	33.1%	8.2%	24.9%	0.7%	3.08	1.76	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	61	250	68	25	5	2%	1.4	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	1.9%	1.92	3.74	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	61	250	68	25	5	2%	1.4	27.2%	10.0%	17.2%	2.0%	1.92	3.17	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	50	0	64	247	80	12	8	0%	1.3	28.5%	5.1%	23.4%	3.4%	3.38	3.19	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	50	0	64	247	80	12	8	0%	1.3	32.4%	4.9%	27.5%	3.2%	3.38	2.79	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	47	197	50	6	7	3%	1.3	23.1%	3.1%	19.9%	4.0%	5.21	3.76	+0.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	47	197	50	6	7	3%	1.3	25.4%	3.0%	22.3%	3.6%	5.21	3.29	+0.7
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	22	1	23	100	23	10	7	5%	1.1	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	7.3%	5.79	6.57	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	22	1	23	100	23	10	7	5%	1.1	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	7.3%	5.79	6.57	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	22	1	23	100	23	10	7	5%	1.1	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	7.0%	5.79	6.31	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	15	57	12	3	0	0%	1.8	21.1%	5.3%	15.8%	0.0%	3.07	2.08	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	9.2%	13.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.6%	12.0%	3.4%	4.62	4.72	-0.0
2027	32	MLB CTX	SF	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.6%	12.0%	3.4%	4.62	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	22	88	19	6	1	0%	1.5	21.2%	6.8%	14.5%	1.2%	3.59	2.82	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		136	0	200	800	173	54	9	0%	1.5	21.2%	6.8%	14.5%	1.2%	3.59	2.82	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		200	8	298	1223	286	96	41	4%	1.5	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.3%	3.62	3.94	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	5	200	821	192	64	27	4%	1.5	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.3%	3.62	3.94	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Phoenix Sanders (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.2%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.72	21.6%	12.0%	20	+0.24	—	—	—
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	73
Kazuhisa Makita R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	33	SU	3.93	21.6%	7.9%	3.0%	.270	2.81	18.9%	15.2%	70	-1.12	2.81	132	72
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	71
Pat Venditte S 2016 · 3.76 FIP	31	SU	3.76	25.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.344	3.36	23.9%	14.5%	182	-0.40	2.21	317	69
Anthony Varvaro R 2016 · 3.41 FIP	31	SU	3.41	22.9%	9.7%	1.9%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	208	68
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	68
Pat Neshek R 2012 · 4.52 FIP	31	SU	4.52	20.8%	6.5%	4.3%	.150	3.33	22.9%	18.3%	162	-1.19	1.57	479	68
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	67
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	67
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	67
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	67
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	67
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	67
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	67
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	66
Vinny Nittoli R 2022 · 3.66 FIP	31	SU	3.66	27.1%	7.1%	3.6%	.268	4.86	23.8%	15.4%	112	+1.20	3.66	331	66
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	66
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	66
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	65