Riley O'Brien

P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	22	21	5.06	4.27	20.4%	13.3%	0.1	K 14.9% · BB 8.7% · FIP 2.94
2025	30	MIX2 levels	61	67	2.27	2.64	27.0%	9.8%	1.5	K 25.4% · BB 9.5% · FIP 2.82
2026	31	MLBSTL	66	64	4.08	3.29	23.2%	9.1%	1.0
2027PROJ	32	MLBSTL	63	66	3.94	3.89	25.3%	10.1%	0.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBSTL	54	57	4.08	4.17	24.5%	10.5%	0.3
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBSTL	48	50	4.32	4.47	23.6%	11.0%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

Whiff%60

K%55

xwOBA vs26

CompsJohn Axford (age 32) · Hirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Jumbo Diaz (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA3.94

FIP3.89

K%25.3%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

FB+5.8 (58%)

SL+0.8 (41%)

SI (58%)

CH (1%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	11	10	41	159	40	17	1	91%	3.7	17.1%	13.4%	3.7%	0.9%	2.20	3.83	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	11	10	41	159	40	17	1	91%	3.7	25.2%	10.7%	14.5%	0.6%	2.20	2.71	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	88	357	103	41	4	52%	3.5	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	1.5%	2.75	3.77	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	88	357	103	41	4	52%	3.5	28.9%	11.5%	17.4%	1.1%	2.75	2.75	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	103	429	107	44	6	85%	5.1	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	1.8%	3.16	3.88	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	103	429	107	44	6	85%	5.1	24.9%	10.3%	14.7%	1.4%	3.16	3.06	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	114	499	123	57	18	96%	4.8	21.7%	11.6%	10.2%	3.3%	4.66	4.54	+0.5
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	114	499	123	57	18	96%	4.8	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	3.6%	4.66	4.49	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	41	201	48	31	5	3%	1.2	21.1%	16.1%	5.0%	2.5%	6.86	4.70	-0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	41	201	48	31	5	3%	1.2	23.9%	15.4%	8.5%	2.5%	6.86	4.62	-0.0
2023	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	51	3	55	228	86	30	2	6%	1.1	32.4%	11.8%	20.6%	0.8%	2.29	2.32	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	51	3	55	228	86	30	2	6%	1.1	37.7%	13.2%	24.6%	0.9%	2.29	2.08	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	21	98	20	13	2	0%	1.0	14.9%	8.7%	6.2%	0.0%	5.06	2.94	+0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	21	98	20	13	2	0%	1.0	14.9%	8.7%	6.2%	0.0%	5.06	2.94	+0.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	21	98	20	13	2	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.3%	7.1%	2.0%	5.06	4.27	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	67	285	77	28	3	0%	1.1	25.4%	9.5%	15.9%	1.2%	2.27	2.82	+1.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	67	285	77	28	3	0%	1.1	25.4%	9.5%	15.9%	1.2%	2.27	2.82	+1.4
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	67	285	77	28	3	0%	1.1	27.0%	9.8%	17.2%	1.1%	2.27	2.64	+1.5
2026	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	66	0	64	276	64	25	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	1.9%	4.08	3.36	+0.9
2026	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	66	0	64	276	64	25	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	1.9%	4.08	3.36	+0.9
2026	31	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	66	0	64	276	64	25	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	1.8%	4.08	3.29	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			118	1	122	535	123	57	11	1%	1.0	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	2.1%	3.83	3.66	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	STL	63	0	66	279	71	28	6	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.1%	15.3%	2.3%	3.94	3.89	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	STL	58	0	60	255	63	27	7	0%	1.0	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.6%	4.08	4.17	+0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	STL	52	0	55	233	55	26	7	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.0%	12.6%	2.9%	4.32	4.47	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	STL	54	0	57	241	59	25	6	0%	1.1	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.6%	4.08	4.17	+0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	STL	48	0	50	211	50	23	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	11.0%	12.6%	2.9%	4.32	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	1	230	988	232	106	23	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	2.4%	4.00	3.77	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	1	200	861	202	92	20	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	2.4%	4.00	3.77	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		314	67	594	2532	566	296	47	21%	1.9	22.3%	11.7%	10.7%	1.8%	3.56	3.70	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	23	200	852	190	100	16	21%	1.9	22.3%	11.7%	10.7%	1.8%	3.56	3.70	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley O'Brien (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	25.3%	10.1%	2.3%	—	4.31	24.1%	13.3%	116	+0.42	—	—	—
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	1.90	518	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	72
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	70
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	67
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	66
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	65
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	65
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	64
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	64
Jose Veras R 2013 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	23.6%	8.3%	2.5%	.234	4.28	21.9%	10.2%	65	+0.77	3.37	422	64
Jared Hughes R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	32	SU	3.28	19.7%	7.8%	1.6%	.260	3.99	19.3%	10.9%	172	+0.71	3.00	530	63
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.3%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	370	62
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	62
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	62
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.51	246	62
Scot Shields R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	32	SU	3.58	24.1%	10.3%	2.2%	.271	4.26	20.3%	7.3%	127	+0.68	2.77	686	61
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	61
Steve Delabar R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	32	SU	3.74	25.0%	9.9%	2.7%	.246	4.62	20.4%	4.8%	24	+0.88	2.43	229	61
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	61
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	61	23.9%	11.0%	0.92	3.99
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*