Josh Fleming

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	51	3	60	4.50	4.23	13.4%	7.7%	0.2	K 12.4% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.28
2025	29	AAASEA	47	3	84	4.91	4.37	11.5%	6.8%	—	K 9.9% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.22
2026	30	MIX2 levels	25	20	115	4.21	4.25	16.8%	5.3%	0.9	K 14.8% · BB 4.5% · FIP 4.46
2027PROJ	31	MLBTOR	57	0	60	4.65	4.80	12.3%	5.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBTOR	19	0	20	4.90	5.06	11.5%	5.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBTOR	27	0	28	5.16	5.34	10.6%	6.2%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs39

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsAlejandro Soto (age 31) · Tyler Alexander (age 29) · Jason Gurka (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.65

FIP4.80

K%12.3%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.4

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p1012.3%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

SI (38%)

CU (34%)

CH (23%)

CT-0.6 (5%)

FB-1.3 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	12	9	35	149	26	7	5	75%	2.9	11.9%	5.9%	6.0%	4.7%	5.40	5.42	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	12	9	35	149	26	7	5	75%	2.9	17.4%	4.7%	12.8%	3.4%	5.40	4.07	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	110	433	80	18	5	89%	5.8	13.9%	4.8%	9.1%	1.6%	2.53	3.44	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	110	433	80	18	5	89%	5.8	18.5%	4.2%	14.3%	1.2%	2.53	2.73	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	149	611	108	26	15	80%	5.9	14.5%	4.6%	9.9%	2.9%	3.57	4.04	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	149	611	108	26	15	80%	5.9	17.7%	4.3%	13.4%	2.5%	3.57	3.48	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	7	5	32	130	25	7	5	71%	4.6	19.2%	5.4%	13.8%	4.0%	2.78	4.33	+0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	7	5	32	130	25	7	5	71%	4.6	19.2%	5.4%	13.8%	3.8%	2.78	4.21	+0.3
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	11	114	485	77	27	11	33%	3.5	14.5%	5.8%	8.7%	2.5%	4.72	4.00	+0.8
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	11	114	485	77	27	11	33%	3.5	15.9%	5.6%	10.3%	2.3%	4.72	3.71	+1.1
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	100	429	75	25	9	52%	4.0	16.2%	6.0%	10.2%	2.2%	4.24	3.69	+1.4
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	100	429	75	25	9	52%	4.0	17.5%	5.8%	11.7%	2.1%	4.24	3.52	+1.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	8	85	371	42	25	12	30%	3.1	10.4%	6.6%	3.8%	3.3%	4.46	4.89	-0.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	8	85	371	42	25	12	30%	3.1	11.3%	6.7%	4.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.84	-0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	3	60	261	35	20	6	6%	1.2	12.4%	7.4%	5.0%	2.3%	4.50	4.28	+0.2
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	3	60	261	35	20	6	6%	1.2	12.4%	7.4%	5.0%	2.3%	4.50	4.28	+0.2
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	3	60	261	35	20	6	6%	1.2	13.4%	7.7%	5.7%	2.3%	4.50	4.23	+0.2
2025	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	47	3	84	381	44	26	9	6%	1.8	9.9%	6.1%	3.8%	2.2%	4.91	4.22	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	47	3	84	381	44	26	9	6%	1.8	9.9%	6.1%	3.8%	2.2%	4.91	4.22	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	47	3	84	381	44	26	9	6%	1.8	11.5%	6.8%	4.7%	2.4%	4.91	4.37	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	115	493	83	26	17	80%	4.6	14.8%	4.5%	10.3%	3.7%	4.21	4.46	+0.6
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	115	493	83	26	17	80%	4.6	14.8%	4.5%	10.3%	3.7%	4.21	4.46	+0.6
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	115	493	83	26	17	80%	4.6	16.8%	5.3%	11.6%	3.4%	4.21	4.25	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			81	25	258	1124	162	77	34	31%	3.2	14.4%	6.9%	7.6%	3.0%	4.86	4.45	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TOR	57	0	60	253	31	13	8	0%	1.1	12.3%	5.3%	7.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TOR	53	0	55	233	27	13	8	0%	1.0	11.5%	5.7%	5.8%	3.3%	4.90	5.06	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	TOR	48	0	51	214	23	13	8	0%	1.1	10.6%	6.2%	4.5%	3.6%	5.16	5.34	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	TOR	19	0	20	84	10	5	3	0%	1.1	11.5%	5.7%	5.8%	3.3%	4.90	5.06	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	TOR	27	0	28	118	13	7	4	0%	1.0	10.6%	6.2%	4.5%	3.6%	5.16	5.34	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	25	306	1328	184	89	41	20%	2.4	13.9%	6.7%	7.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.48	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		83	16	200	868	120	58	27	20%	2.4	13.9%	6.7%	7.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		271	109	885	3743	514	209	103	40%	3.3	13.7%	5.6%	8.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.16	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	25	200	846	116	47	23	40%	3.3	13.7%	5.6%	8.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.16	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Fleming (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	12.3%	5.3%	3.1%	—	5.19	11.1%	5.1%	106	+0.39	—	—	—
Alejandro Soto L 2017 · 4.36 FIP	31	SW	4.36	13.8%	3.3%	3.7%	.323	4.03	17.1%	10.2%	61	-0.33	3.96	280	65
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	63
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	62
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	62
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	60
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	57
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	54
Chris Capuano L 2010 · 4.06 FIP	31	SW	4.06	19.4%	7.2%	3.1%	.287	3.77	19.8%	14.1%	490	-0.29	3.40	1,458	52
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	52
Randy Keisler L 2007 · 5.51 FIP	31	SP-	5.51	6.5%	6.5%	3.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	135	52
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	51
Chad Zerbe L 2003 · 3.89 FIP	31	SU	3.89	7.8%	5.5%	1.4%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	145	51
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	50
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	671	50
Erasmo Ramirez L 2005 · 4.68 FIP	29	SU	4.68	6.2%	3.1%	3.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	108	50
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	49
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	47
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	47
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	47
Darin Downs L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	30	SU	4.06	12.9%	4.2%	2.8%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	107	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	13.3%	6.8%	1.21	4.87
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Donne Wall ('02)	2.4	59	16.1%	7.7%	1.18	4.20
Joe Roa ('04)	1.3	66	13.1%	6.1%	1.32	4.94
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Adrian Devine ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	1.9	65	16.7%*	7.8%*	1.12*	4.45*
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*