Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 14 | 14 | 38 | 176 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 2.7 | 13.5% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.96 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 14 | 14 | 38 | 176 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 2.7 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 4.74 | 3.73 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.5% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 2.39 | 2.26 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.6% | 5.1% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 2.39 | 1.80 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 21 | 0 | 24 | 92 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 1.1% | 1.52 | 2.62 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 21 | 0 | 24 | 92 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 1.1% | 1.52 | 2.68 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 65 | 0 | 67 | 281 | 56 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 2.4% | 4.28 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 65 | 0 | 67 | 281 | 56 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 15 | 0 | 13 | 63 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 21.0% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 7.82 | 5.71 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 15 | 0 | 13 | 63 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.8% | 17.5% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 7.82 | 5.39 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 67 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.38 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 67 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 8.0% | 21.9% | 3.1% | 3.38 | 3.31 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 30 | 0 | 31 | 137 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 3.79 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CLE | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 52 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 7.6% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 3.59 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CLE | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 52 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 7.6% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 3.59 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 81 | 347 | 76 | 27 | 8 | — | — | 22.0% | 7.8% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.62 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 58 | 244 | 76 | 27 | 8 | — | — | 31.3% | 11.1% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 5.28 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 44 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 278 | 0 | 295 | 1243 | 285 | 106 | 36 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.82 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 842 | 193 | 72 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 234 | 14 | 294 | 1248 | 252 | 101 | 25 | 6% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 3.54 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 10 | 200 | 850 | 171 | 69 | 17 | 6% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 3.54 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Codi Heuer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.81 | 26.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.35 | 23.4% | 14.5% | 149 | +0.54 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 81 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 80 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2029 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 76 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 76 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 76 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.23 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.16 | 186 | 75 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.99 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .280 | 3.50 | 23.7% | 15.4% | 87 | +0.51 | 2.39 | 332 | 74 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.4% | .248 | 2.54 | 20.5% | 14.7% | 19 | -0.49 | 2.54 | 130 | 74 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 74 |
| Austin Adams R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.39 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 2.4% | .376 | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 60 | +2.77 | 3.39 | 162 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.41 | 3.03 | 120 | 73 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.96 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 1.4% | .251 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 17.4% | 50 | +0.68 | 2.96 | 230 | 73 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 73 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 1.18 | 4.14 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |