Juan Mercedes

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	16	14	67	5.61	3.87	22.7%	8.1%	—	K 18.0% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.95
2024	24	AASEA	27	27	144	2.87	3.34	21.3%	4.4%	—	K 17.2% · BB 4.8% · FIP 4.43
2025	25	AAASF	17	6	52	9.35	7.25	19.6%	12.4%	—	K 16.9% · BB 11.2% · FIP 7.47
2027PROJ	27	MLBSF	10	10	70	5.56	5.56	16.2%	9.9%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSF	4	4	29	5.48	5.52	16.8%	10.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBSF	6	6	38	5.49	5.56	17.1%	10.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

CompsDavid Griffin (age 27) · Clay Condrey (age 27) · Mike Connolly (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%16.2%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	10	2	30	115	20	3	0	20%	3.0	11.8%	3.3%	8.6%	0.0%	2.43	2.51	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	10	2	30	115	20	3	0	20%	3.0	17.4%	2.6%	14.8%	0.0%	2.43	2.06	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	15	9	58	238	45	11	4	60%	3.9	12.9%	5.8%	7.1%	2.4%	2.79	4.04	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	15	9	58	238	45	11	4	60%	3.9	18.9%	4.6%	14.3%	1.7%	2.79	3.01	—
2019	19	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	2	0	4	14	2	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	2.25	1.89	—
2019	19	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	2	0	4	14	2	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	2.25	2.10	—
2021	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	34	0	63	277	88	17	9	0%	1.9	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	4.9%	5.54	4.73	—
2021	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	34	0	63	277	88	17	9	0%	1.9	31.8%	6.1%	25.6%	3.2%	5.54	2.97	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	22	122	516	137	36	15	85%	4.7	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.13	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	22	122	516	137	36	15	85%	4.7	26.6%	7.0%	19.6%	2.9%	4.59	3.34	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	67	308	70	25	9	88%	4.2	18.0%	9.0%	9.0%	4.1%	5.61	4.95	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	67	308	70	25	9	88%	4.2	22.7%	8.1%	14.6%	2.9%	5.61	3.87	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	592	126	26	16	100%	5.3	17.2%	4.8%	12.4%	4.0%	2.87	4.43	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	592	126	26	16	100%	5.3	17.2%	4.8%	12.4%	4.0%	2.87	4.43	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	592	126	26	16	100%	5.3	21.3%	4.4%	16.9%	2.7%	2.87	3.34	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	17	6	52	250	49	31	17	35%	3.1	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	8.0%	9.35	7.47	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	17	6	52	250	49	31	17	35%	3.1	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	8.0%	9.35	7.47	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	17	6	52	250	49	31	17	35%	3.1	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	6.8%	9.35	7.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SF	10	10	70	296	48	29	12	100%	7.0	16.2%	9.9%	6.3%	4.0%	5.56	5.56	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	68	287	48	29	11	100%	6.8	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	4.0%	5.48	5.52	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	65	274	47	28	11	100%	6.5	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	4.1%	5.49	5.56	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	29	122	21	12	5	100%	7.2	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	4.0%	5.48	5.52	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	38	160	27	16	7	100%	6.3	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	4.1%	5.49	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	67	283	48	29	11	100%	6.7	16.9%	10.1%	6.9%	4.0%	5.49	5.16	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	143	86	33	100%	6.8	16.9%	10.1%	6.9%	4.0%	5.49	5.16	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		147	80	540	2310	421	161	92	54%	3.7	18.2%	7.0%	11.2%	4.0%	4.50	4.64	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	30	200	855	156	60	34	54%	3.7	18.2%	7.0%	11.2%	4.0%	4.50	4.64	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	16.2%	9.9%	4.0%	—	5.54	16.9%	6.8%	133	-0.02	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	83
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	82
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	81
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	81
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	79
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	79
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	78
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	78
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	77
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	77
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	77
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	77
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	76
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	76
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.68	11.7%	-1.4%	68	-0.33	4.00	293	76
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	75
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	74
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.7%	10.0%	1.55	5.51
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*