Dayeison Arias prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dayeison Arias P Arkansas Travelers

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%22.6%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	25	0	29	115	36	7	1	0%	1.2	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	1.2%	3.41	2.93	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	25	0	29	115	36	7	1	0%	1.2	31.3%	6.1%	25.2%	0.9%	3.41	1.79	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	55	210	80	15	3	0%	1.2	28.2%	8.3%	19.8%	2.1%	1.15	2.92	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	55	210	80	15	3	0%	1.2	38.1%	7.1%	31.0%	1.4%	1.15	1.72	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	44	187	69	20	6	3%	1.4	29.1%	12.0%	17.1%	3.9%	2.66	4.31	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	44	187	69	20	6	3%	1.4	36.9%	10.7%	26.2%	3.2%	2.66	3.10	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	33	1	33	137	42	17	3	3%	1.0	24.8%	13.6%	11.2%	2.9%	3.03	4.32	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	33	1	33	137	42	17	3	3%	1.0	30.7%	12.4%	18.2%	2.2%	3.03	3.28	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	41	0	51	231	61	37	3	0%	1.2	21.4%	17.6%	3.8%	1.8%	4.62	4.53	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	41	0	51	231	61	37	3	0%	1.2	21.4%	17.6%	3.8%	1.8%	4.62	4.53	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	41	0	51	231	61	37	3	0%	1.2	26.4%	16.0%	10.4%	1.3%	4.62	3.65	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	13.0%	9.6%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SEA	31	0	33	138	31	18	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.89	4.96	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	SEA	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.89	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	6	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.89	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	117	20	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.89	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		175	2	211	880	221	108	21	1%	1.2	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	2.4%	2.90	3.86	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	2	200	833	210	102	20	1%	1.2	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	2.4%	2.90	3.86	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dayeison Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	22.6%	13.0%	2.9%	—	4.96	22.3%	9.4%	33	+0.13	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	88
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	80
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	79
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	79
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	79
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	78
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	77
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	77
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	77
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	76
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	76
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	22.4%	12.9%	1.18	4.86
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44