Michel Baez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Michel Baez P San Antonio Missions

Age 30 RHP 6'8" / 220 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.10

FIP4.99

K%20.4%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

FB+1.5

SL-0.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	64	243	89	10	9	100%	5.8	27.0%	4.2%	22.8%	4.4%	2.54	3.77	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	64	243	89	10	9	100%	5.8	36.6%	4.1%	32.5%	3.7%	2.54	2.61	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	450	113	45	9	100%	5.0	19.5%	11.4%	8.2%	2.9%	3.69	4.51	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	105	450	113	45	9	100%	5.0	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	2.0%	3.69	3.35	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	57	246	66	22	4	3%	1.5	23.9%	9.3%	14.5%	1.6%	2.54	3.12	+1.0
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	57	246	66	22	4	3%	1.5	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	1.6%	2.54	2.85	+1.2
2020	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	3	1	5	23	7	2	0	33%	1.6	30.4%	8.7%	21.7%	0.0%	7.71	1.63	+0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	3	1	5	23	7	2	0	33%	1.6	30.4%	8.7%	21.7%	0.0%	7.71	1.39	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	2	50	215	59	23	6	5%	1.2	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	3.9%	4.71	4.96	-0.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	2	50	215	59	23	6	5%	1.2	27.4%	10.7%	16.7%	2.8%	4.71	3.68	+0.5
2023	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	1	41	195	34	29	7	3%	1.3	12.9%	16.1%	-3.3%	4.0%	6.64	6.24	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	1	41	195	34	29	7	3%	1.3	12.9%	16.1%	-3.3%	4.0%	6.64	6.24	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	32	1	41	195	34	29	7	3%	1.3	17.4%	14.9%	2.6%	3.6%	6.64	5.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			29	2	36	161	37	14	3	7%	1.3	23.0%	8.7%	14.3%	1.9%	3.47	3.29	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	12.8%	7.6%	2.9%	5.10	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SD	51	0	54	227	45	29	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	3.2%	5.11	5.16	-0.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	50	210	41	27	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.0%	6.4%	3.4%	5.23	5.35	-0.4
2027	31	MLB CTX	SD	16	0	17	72	14	9	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	3.2%	5.11	5.16	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	SD	25	0	26	110	21	14	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.0%	6.4%	3.4%	5.23	5.35	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	2	79	340	72	37	9	3%	1.1	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	2.6%	4.39	4.13	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		176	5	200	864	183	94	23	3%	1.1	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	2.6%	4.39	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		149	37	320	1372	292	145	44	25%	2.1	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.2%	3.85	4.40	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	23	200	857	182	91	27	25%	2.1	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.2%	3.85	4.40	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michel Baez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	20.4%	12.8%	2.9%	—	5.25	19.7%	6.8%	104	+0.26	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	73
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	72
Bryan Mitchell R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	20.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.305	5.07	14.4%	3.9%	39	+0.78	2.72	481	71
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	70
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	69
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	69
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	69
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	68
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	68
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	68
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	68
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	67
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	67
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	67
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	67
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	67
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.94	409	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	20.5%	12.3%	1.13	4.84
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Jose Paniagua ('03)	1.8	60	17.3%	11.8%	1.01	4.49