Carlos Hernández

P Columbus Clippers

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 255 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	52	0	57	4.29	3.74	26.0%	11.6%	0.5	K 24.0% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.85
2025	28	MIX2 levels	48	0	51	6.00	3.85	20.5%	9.8%	0.4	K 19.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.87
2026	29	MIX3 levels	22	3	26	3.81	4.37	29.0%	9.3%	0.1	K 25.2% · BB 9.6% · FIP 5.41
2027PROJ	30	MLBCLE	135	0	142	4.65	4.56	23.8%	10.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBCLE	78	0	82	4.73	4.79	23.1%	11.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBCLE	50	0	53	4.92	5.05	22.3%	11.6%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo90

K%30

xwOBA vs10

CompsHirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Mike Broadway (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.65

FIP4.56

K%23.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	12	11	62	284	62	27	6	92%	5.2	14.8%	11.9%	3.0%	3.0%	5.49	4.98	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	12	11	62	284	62	27	6	92%	5.2	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	2.1%	5.49	3.66	—
2018	21	A MLE	Lexington Legends	15	15	79	331	82	23	7	100%	5.3	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	2.6%	3.29	4.03	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lexington Legends	15	15	79	331	82	23	7	100%	5.3	24.8%	6.9%	17.8%	2.1%	3.29	3.05	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	47	195	55	12	6	100%	3.9	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	4.1%	4.40	4.41	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	47	195	55	12	6	100%	3.9	28.2%	6.2%	22.1%	3.1%	4.40	3.19	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	5	3	15	67	13	6	4	60%	2.9	19.4%	9.0%	10.4%	6.5%	4.91	6.14	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	5	3	15	67	13	6	4	60%	2.9	19.4%	9.0%	10.4%	6.0%	4.91	6.10	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	112	471	100	46	13	57%	3.7	20.6%	9.8%	10.7%	3.0%	3.86	4.24	+1.5
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	17	112	471	100	46	13	57%	3.7	21.2%	9.8%	11.5%	2.8%	3.86	4.06	+1.8
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	18	106	474	79	49	14	46%	2.7	15.6%	10.5%	5.0%	3.2%	5.69	4.90	-0.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	18	106	474	79	49	14	46%	2.7	16.7%	10.3%	6.3%	3.0%	5.69	4.71	-0.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	67	4	70	300	77	30	10	6%	1.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	3.6%	5.27	4.18	+0.3
2023	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	67	4	70	300	77	30	10	6%	1.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	3.3%	5.27	4.04	+0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	242	63	28	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	2.5%	4.29	3.85	+0.5
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	242	63	28	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	2.5%	4.29	3.85	+0.5
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	57	242	63	28	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.6%	14.5%	2.5%	4.29	3.74	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	51	234	48	23	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	2.0%	6.00	3.87	+0.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	51	234	48	23	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	2.0%	6.00	3.87	+0.4
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	51	234	48	23	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	2.1%	6.00	3.85	+0.4
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	3	26	107	31	10	5	14%	1.2	25.2%	9.6%	15.6%	5.9%	3.81	5.41	-0.3
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	3	26	107	31	10	5	14%	1.2	25.2%	9.6%	15.6%	5.9%	3.81	5.41	-0.3
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	3	26	107	31	10	5	14%	1.2	29.0%	9.3%	19.6%	4.7%	3.81	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			193	25	303	1337	269	144	34	13%	1.6	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	2.5%	5.14	4.21	+1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CLE	135	0	142	600	143	65	19	0%	1.1	23.8%	10.8%	13.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CLE	82	0	86	362	84	40	12	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.2%	12.0%	3.4%	4.73	4.79	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	CLE	53	0	56	236	53	27	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.6%	10.8%	3.6%	4.92	5.05	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	CLE	78	0	82	346	80	39	12	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.2%	12.0%	3.4%	4.73	4.79	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	CLE	50	0	53	224	50	26	8	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.6%	10.8%	3.6%	4.92	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		321	25	437	1905	398	208	54	8%	1.4	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	2.8%	5.04	4.27	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		147	11	200	871	182	95	25	8%	1.4	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	2.8%	5.04	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		302	83	625	2705	536	269	86	27%	2.1	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.44	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	27	200	866	171	86	28	27%	2.1	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.44	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 18 IPFIP 4.90 → 5.41 (+0.50)K% 29.3% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.860	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.67%	—	×0.900	9.60%
HR / BF /BF	5.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.90 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 8 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.51 (+0.27)K% 29.0% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.03%	—	×0.860	24.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×0.900	5.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.093	×1.100	3.25%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 27 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.40 (+0.22)K% 31.9% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.86%	—	×0.860	27.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.62%	—	×0.900	9.56%
HR / BF /BF	4.42%	÷1.111	×1.100	4.38%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 50 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.81 (+0.49)K% 21.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.880	18.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.13%	—	×1.050	9.59%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷0.984	×1.100	3.76%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 26 IPFIP 4.74 → 5.22 (+0.47)K% 23.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.01%	—	×0.880	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.31%	—	×1.050	5.58%
HR / BF /BF	5.31%	÷1.027	×1.100	5.69%

Result: FIP 4.74 → 5.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALexington Legends · 36 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.41 (+1.14)K% 29.5% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.45%	—	×0.740	21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.16%	—	×1.180	7.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷1.095	×1.300	4.06%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Royals · 11 IPFIP 2.93 → 4.23 (+1.30)K% 24.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.680	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.12%	—	×1.250	7.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALexington Legends · 79 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.03 (+0.98)K% 24.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.77%	—	×0.740	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.95%	—	×1.180	8.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.051	×1.300	2.61%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Hernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	23.8%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.89	22.8%	11.5%	142	+0.33	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	66
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	65
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	65
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	65
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	64
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	63
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	63
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	63
Bryan Mitchell R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	20.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.305	5.07	14.4%	3.9%	39	+0.78	2.72	481	62
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	61
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	61
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	60
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	59
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	59
Scott Dohmann R 2008 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	3.0%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	173	59
Guillermo Moscoso R 2013 · 5.15 FIP	29	SU	5.15	24.2%	14.1%	4.2%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	486	59
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	59
Arquimedes Caminero R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	29	SU	4.45	17.9%	11.4%	2.6%	.314	4.62	18.6%	7.5%	38	+0.17	3.54	186	59
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	59
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	21.6%	11.1%	1.12	4.94
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*
Jerry Johnson ('68-'77, -4 WAR*)	3.9	77	19.4%*	11.3%*	1.06*	5.08*
Wes Gardner ('84-'91, -0 WAR*)	2.3	78	23.2%*	10.4%*	1.24*	5.03*
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71