Carlos Hernández
P
ACL Guardians
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 255 lbs
ROK
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 54 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.60
FIP4.40
K%23.6%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.7
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p3019.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
SI (3%)
CU (9%)
SL-0.7 (17%)
FB-1.5 (54%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Burlington Royals | 12 | 11 | 62 | 284 | 62 | 27 | 6 | 92% | 5.2 | 14.8% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.49 | 4.98 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Burlington Royals | 12 | 11 | 62 | 284 | 62 | 27 | 6 | 92% | 5.2 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 5.49 | 3.66 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 15 | 15 | 79 | 331 | 82 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 3.29 | 3.96 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 15 | 15 | 79 | 331 | 82 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.8% | 6.9% | 17.8% | 2.1% | 3.29 | 3.05 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 47 | 195 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 4.40 | 4.23 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 47 | 195 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 28.2% | 6.2% | 22.1% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 3.19 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 5 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 60% | 2.9 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 4.91 | 6.10 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 5 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 60% | 2.9 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 6.0% | 4.91 | 6.10 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 17 | 112 | 471 | 100 | 46 | 13 | 57% | 3.7 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 17 | 112 | 471 | 100 | 46 | 13 | 57% | 3.7 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 4.06 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 18 | 106 | 474 | 79 | 49 | 14 | 46% | 2.7 | 15.6% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 5.69 | 4.91 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 18 | 106 | 474 | 79 | 49 | 14 | 46% | 2.7 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 5.69 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 67 | 4 | 70 | 300 | 77 | 30 | 10 | 6% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 67 | 4 | 70 | 300 | 77 | 30 | 10 | 6% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 63 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 4.29 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 63 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 2.5% | 4.29 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 51 | 234 | 48 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 6.00 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 51 | 234 | 48 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 2.1% | 6.00 | 3.85 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 54 | 226 | 53 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.6% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 56 | 237 | 56 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 23.8% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 49 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 255 | 25 | 366 | 1605 | 327 | 177 | 42 | 10% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 4.21 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 139 | 14 | 200 | 876 | 179 | 97 | 23 | 10% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 283 | 83 | 602 | 2609 | 513 | 261 | 78 | 29% | 2.1 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.36 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 28 | 200 | 867 | 170 | 87 | 26 | 29% | 2.1 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Hernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.6% | 11.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.83 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 141 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 70 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 67 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 67 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 66 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 66 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 66 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 65 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 65 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.48 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | -0.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 64 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .218 | 3.45 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.86 | 2.73 | 141 | 64 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 64 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 64 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 64 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 64 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 64 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 63 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 63 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 63 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 63 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 22.6% | 11.7% | 1.17 | 4.71 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |