Carlos Hernández

Carlos Hernández P Columbus Clippers

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 255 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.59

FIP4.40

K%23.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

SI (3%)

CU (9%)

SL-0.7 (17%)

FB-1.5 (54%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	12	11	62	284	62	27	6	92%	5.2	14.8%	11.9%	3.0%	3.0%	5.49	4.98	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	12	11	62	284	62	27	6	92%	5.2	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	2.1%	5.49	3.66	—
2018	21	A MLE	Lexington Legends	15	15	79	331	82	23	7	100%	5.3	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	2.6%	3.29	4.03	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lexington Legends	15	15	79	331	82	23	7	100%	5.3	24.8%	6.9%	17.8%	2.1%	3.29	3.05	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	47	195	55	12	6	100%	3.9	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	4.1%	4.40	4.41	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	47	195	55	12	6	100%	3.9	28.2%	6.2%	22.1%	3.1%	4.40	3.19	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	5	3	15	67	13	6	4	60%	2.9	19.4%	9.0%	10.4%	6.5%	4.91	6.14	-0.2
2020	23	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	5	3	15	67	13	6	4	60%	2.9	19.4%	9.0%	10.4%	6.0%	4.91	6.10	-0.2
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	112	471	100	46	13	57%	3.7	20.6%	9.8%	10.7%	3.0%	3.86	4.24	+0.9
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	17	112	471	100	46	13	57%	3.7	21.2%	9.8%	11.5%	2.8%	3.86	4.06	+1.1
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	18	106	474	79	49	14	46%	2.7	15.6%	10.5%	5.0%	3.2%	5.69	4.90	-0.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	18	106	474	79	49	14	46%	2.7	16.7%	10.3%	6.3%	3.0%	5.69	4.71	-0.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	67	4	70	300	77	30	10	6%	1.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	3.6%	5.27	4.18	+0.3
2023	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	67	4	70	300	77	30	10	6%	1.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	3.6%	5.27	4.18	+0.3
2023	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	67	4	70	300	77	30	10	6%	1.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	3.3%	5.27	4.04	+0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	242	63	28	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.5%	4.29	3.89	+0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	57	242	63	28	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.5%	4.29	3.89	+0.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	57	242	63	28	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.6%	14.5%	2.5%	4.29	3.74	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	51	234	48	23	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	2.0%	6.00	3.87	+0.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	51	234	48	23	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	2.0%	6.00	3.87	+0.4
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	51	234	48	23	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	2.1%	6.00	3.85	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			193	25	303	1337	269	144	34	13%	1.6	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	2.5%	5.14	4.21	+1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	19	3	22	94	29	10	5	16%	1.2	26.8%	11.6%	15.2%	7.1%	4.43	6.21	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	19	3	22	94	29	10	5	16%	1.2	26.8%	11.6%	15.2%	7.1%	4.43	6.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	ROK RAW	CLE	4	3	5	18	5	1	0	75%	1.2	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.46	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	CLE	13	0	14	62	20	8	4	0%	1.1	32.3%	12.9%	19.4%	6.5%	5.65	5.55	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	CLE	2	0	3	14	4	1	1	0%	1.5	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	7.1%	6.00	5.51	—
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CLE	2	0	3	14	4	1	1	0%	1.5	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	7.1%	6.00	5.51	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CLE	4	0	5	19	4	2	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	2.7%	4.59	4.40	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CLE	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	2.7%	4.59	4.40	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	27	113	33	12	6	—	—	29.6%	10.7%	18.9%	4.9%	4.46	5.90	-0.4
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	8	32	33	12	6	—	—	105.6%	38.2%	67.4%	17.4%	15.94	8.58	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CLE	48	0	50	212	48	24	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.3%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.61	-0.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	47	198	44	23	6	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	3.2%	4.74	4.84	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	CLE	41	0	43	183	39	22	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	3.4%	4.95	5.09	-0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	CLE	46	0	48	203	46	23	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.3%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.61	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	42	22	6	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	3.2%	4.74	4.84	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	CLE	39	0	41	173	37	21	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	3.4%	4.95	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		325	25	441	1920	398	212	52	8%	1.4	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.7%	5.02	4.25	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		147	11	200	871	181	96	24	8%	1.4	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.7%	5.02	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		299	83	621	2692	533	269	87	28%	2.1	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	3.2%	4.72	4.47	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	27	200	867	172	87	28	28%	2.1	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	3.2%	4.72	4.47	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Hernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	23.4%	11.0%	2.7%	—	4.83	22.0%	10.3%	141	+0.43	—	—	—
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	617	72
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	72
Arquimedes Caminero R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	29	SU	4.45	17.9%	11.4%	2.6%	.314	4.62	18.6%	7.5%	38	+0.17	3.54	173	69
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	69
Zach McAllister R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	29	SU	3.70	26.5%	8.4%	3.2%	.292	4.70	21.4%	16.7%	57	+1.00	2.82	363	68
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	68
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	68
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	67
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	67
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	66
Lucas Erceg R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	25.6%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.6%	13.9%	166	-0.28	2.10	346	66
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	66
Brandon Maurer R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	28	SU	4.87	19.7%	13.0%	3.2%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	234	66
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	66
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	66
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	65
Kelvin Herrera R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	22.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	297	65
Jacob Barnes R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	29	SU	5.09	21.9%	10.0%	4.7%	.303	3.54	23.1%	15.1%	101	-1.55	1.84	551	65
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	65
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	22.4%	11.5%	1.17	4.71
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64