Carlos Hernández
P
Cleveland Guardians
+0.4
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 255 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.66
FIP4.32
xFIP5.17
SIERA4.64
K%21.9%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.5%
IP41
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD3535
K†6060
FB Velo
p9097.7
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p3019.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
SI (3%)
CU (9%)
SL-0.7 (17%)
FB-1.5 (54%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Burlington Royals | 12 | 11 | 62 | 284 | 62 | 27 | 6 | 14.8% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 5.49 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 15 | 15 | 79 | 331 | 82 | 23 | 7 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.29 | 4.04 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | 12 | 12 | 47 | 195 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.40 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 5 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 4.91 | 5.90 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 30 | 17 | 112 | 471 | 100 | 46 | 13 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 4.20 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 39 | 18 | 106 | 474 | 79 | 49 | 14 | 15.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 5.69 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 67 | 4 | 70 | 300 | 77 | 30 | 10 | 25.7% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 5.27 | 3.96 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 52 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 63 | 28 | 6 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.29 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 48 | 0 | 51 | 234 | 48 | 23 | 5 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 6.00 | 3.82 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 25.5% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 280 | 80 | 599 | 2598 | 510 | 260 | 78 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.35 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 27 | 200 | 867 | 170 | 87 | 26 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Hernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 25.5% | 10.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.37 | 24.3% | 13.2% | 116 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 73 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 72 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 71 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 71 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 71 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.85 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.74 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +0.89 | 2.83 | 363 | 70 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 70 |
| John Axford R 2029 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 70 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 70 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 69 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 69 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.40 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.44 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.04 | 2.83 | 432 | 69 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 68 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 68 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 68 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.99 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.8% | .332 | 2.92 | 26.6% | 18.0% | 165 | -0.07 | 1.54 | 521 | 68 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.97 | 29.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .291 | 4.69 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 117 | +0.72 | 2.67 | 382 | 68 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 68 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.21 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.66 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.45 | 2.80 | 284 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.