Jason Foley
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA3.59
FIP4.07
xFIP4.09
SIERA4.09
K%20.7%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%13.0%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
SL+8.0 (31%)
SI (55%)
CH-1.0 (5%)
FB-1.3 (64%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 24 | 0 | 36 | 147 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 23.2% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 2.48 | 1.66 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 36 | 0 | 44 | 201 | 43 | 16 | 3 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 1.9% | 3.89 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 43 | 0 | 45 | 198 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 64 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 16.8% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 3.86 | 2.68 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 70 | 0 | 69 | 276 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 19.9% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 2.61 | 2.43 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 69 | 0 | 60 | 250 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 3.15 | 3.56 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 5 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | DET | 18 | — | 18 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 3.62 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 20.4% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | DET | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | DET | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | DET | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 18.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 312 | 0 | 327 | 1375 | 266 | 92 | 20 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 1.5% | 3.24 | 3.11 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 163 | 56 | 12 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 1.5% | 3.24 | 3.11 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Foley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 2.5% | — | 4.21 | 21.0% | 12.7% | 168 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 77 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.21 | 1.72 | 402 | 76 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.10 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.2% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.29 | 3.10 | 120 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 74 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.93 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.62 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.69 | 2.93 | 176 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 73 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.08 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .248 | 2.59 | 20.5% | 14.7% | 19 | -0.49 | 2.59 | 130 | 72 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 72 |
| Austin Adams R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.28 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .376 | 5.85 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 60 | +2.57 | 3.28 | 162 | 71 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 71 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 30 | SW | 2.97 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 1.4% | .251 | 4.16 | 22.0% | 17.4% | 50 | +1.19 | 2.97 | 230 | 71 |
| Matt Albers R 2028 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 70 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 70 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 70 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.