Jason Foley
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.01
FIP4.13
K%20.0%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
SL+8.0 (31%)
SI (55%)
CH-1.0 (5%)
FB-1.3 (64%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 36 | 147 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 4.1% | 19.1% | 0.0% | 2.48 | 1.66 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 36 | 147 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.9% | 3.4% | 24.5% | 0.7% | 2.48 | 1.61 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 36 | 0 | 44 | 201 | 43 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 3.97 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 36 | 0 | 44 | 201 | 43 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 1.5% | 3.89 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 45 | 198 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.00 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 45 | 198 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 4.3% | 12.5% | 0.9% | 3.86 | 2.69 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 13.4% | 1.1% | 3.86 | 2.75 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 70 | 0 | 69 | 276 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 4.7% | 15.2% | 0.8% | 2.61 | 2.45 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 70 | 0 | 69 | 276 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 4.7% | 15.2% | 0.7% | 2.61 | 2.45 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 69 | 0 | 60 | 250 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 3.15 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 69 | 0 | 60 | 250 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 3.15 | 3.55 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 5 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 40.9% | 0.0% | 40.9% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.35 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 5 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 40.9% | 0.0% | 40.9% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 19 | 1 | 18 | 81 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 5% | 0.9 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 7.64 | 3.76 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 63 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 55 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.13 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 83 | 358 | 70 | 29 | 8 | — | — | 19.6% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 4.78 | 4.05 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 30 | 125 | 25 | 9 | 3 | — | — | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 3.75 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 58 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 312 | 0 | 307 | 1280 | 237 | 82 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 3.54 | 3.33 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 203 | 0 | 200 | 834 | 154 | 53 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 3.54 | 3.33 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 331 | 1 | 345 | 1456 | 279 | 100 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 1.5% | 3.47 | 3.17 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 1 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 58 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 1.5% | 3.47 | 3.17 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Foley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 2.5% | — | 4.48 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 118 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 79 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 78 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.96 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 1.4% | .251 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 17.4% | 50 | +0.68 | 2.96 | 230 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 77 |
| Austin Adams R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.39 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 2.4% | .376 | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 60 | +2.77 | 3.39 | 162 | 77 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 76 |
| Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 76 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.18 | 19.3% | 6.0% | 1.7% | .275 | 4.66 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 37 | +1.48 | 2.09 | 339 | 75 |
| Jim Johnson R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 75 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 75 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.84 | 14.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | .276 | 2.73 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 27 | -1.11 | 2.73 | 141 | 75 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 74 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 74 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.34 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 2.0% | .264 | 3.21 | 22.1% | 16.9% | 62 | -0.13 | 2.67 | 333 | 74 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 74 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 19.2% | 7.8% | 1.07 | 4.22 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Roenis Elías ('19) | 3 | 72 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 1.08 | 3.74 |