Tyler Ahearn — OGILVIE

Tyler Ahearn P Spokane Indians

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%21.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	5	0	4	14	6	0	1	0%	0.8	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	7.1%	2.25	3.40	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	5	0	4	14	6	0	1	0%	0.8	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	7.1%	2.25	3.35	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	44	189	47	18	3	0%	1.2	17.5%	10.9%	6.7%	1.8%	3.68	3.99	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	44	189	47	18	3	0%	1.2	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	1.6%	3.68	3.08	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	39	0	38	192	40	21	10	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.6%	3.5%	6.2%	8.12	6.75	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	39	0	38	192	40	21	10	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	5.2%	8.12	6.10	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	14	0	14	75	10	9	2	0%	1.0	10.3%	13.8%	-3.5%	3.1%	12.21	5.67	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	14	0	14	75	10	9	2	0%	1.0	10.3%	13.8%	-3.5%	3.1%	12.21	5.67	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	14	0	14	75	10	9	2	0%	1.0	13.3%	12.0%	1.3%	2.7%	12.21	5.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	19	0	20	84	18	9	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.63	4.69	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.63	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.63	4.31	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	99	33	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.63	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		95	0	100	470	78	55	19	0%	1.0	16.5%	11.7%	4.8%	4.0%	6.50	5.37	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		191	0	200	943	156	110	37	0%	1.0	16.5%	11.7%	4.8%	4.0%	6.50	5.37	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Ahearn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	21.7%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.69	21.6%	11.3%	20	+0.11	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	83
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	83
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	81
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	80
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	79
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	79
Josh Roenicke R 2011 · 3.44 FIP	28	SU	3.44	17.6%	8.8%	1.3%	.265	4.35	14.9%	4.2%	151	+0.91	3.25	500	79
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	79