Darren McCaughan
P
Louisville Bats
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.39
FIP4.84
xFIP4.63
SIERA3.84
K%19.9%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%11.7%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†3030
FB Velo
p1089.4
Whiff%
p1015.5%
K%
p1014.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
CT+1.2 (9%)
CH+0.9 (12%)
SL+0.8 (42%)
SI (23%)
FB-2.1 (37%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 9 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 18 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.75 | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 27 | 27 | 149 | 642 | 129 | 37 | 7 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 1.4% | 3.08 | 3.27 | +3.4 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 26 | 26 | 144 | 606 | 125 | 21 | 24 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.38 | 4.98 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 23 | 22 | 130 | 534 | 107 | 21 | 23 | 18.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.71 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 28 | 28 | 154 | 642 | 141 | 42 | 22 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.22 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 28 | 25 | 144 | 640 | 140 | 45 | 31 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.81 | 5.07 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 29 | 22 | 128 | 560 | 120 | 45 | 22 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 5.22 | 4.90 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 29 | 12 | 102 | 456 | 102 | 34 | 20 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 4 | 2 | 14 | 67 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 9.00 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 58 | 42 | 16 | 12.9% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 5.88 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 121 | 519 | 74 | 46 | 19 | 14.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 6.24 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 58 | 40 | 16 | 13.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 5.61 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 55 | 39 | 15 | 13.2% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.53 | 5.54 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 52 | 37 | 15 | 13.0% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 5.55 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 48 | 36 | 14 | 12.5% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.63 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 42 | 35 | 14 | 11.8% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.77 | 5.86 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 13.0% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.76 | 5.75 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 203 | 164 | 977 | 4195 | 776 | 260 | 163 | 18.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.45 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 34 | 200 | 858 | 159 | 53 | 33 | 18.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.45 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Darren McCaughan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.55 | 12.9% | 9.2% | 3.6% | — | 5.55 | 13.1% | 3.9% | 298 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Sam LeCure R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.16 | 171 | 70 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 66 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 60 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 60 |
| David Fletcher R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.65 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | 100 | 58 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 58 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.81 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.04 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -0.77 | 3.17 | 273 | 58 |
| Nick Tepesch R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.57 | 10.1% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 276 | 57 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 57 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 57 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.77 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .304 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 133 | -0.46 | 4.31 | 251 | 57 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 57 |
| Alex Caldera R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.57 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 120 | 56 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 56 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.80 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.86 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.06 | 4.80 | 104 | 56 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 6.02 FIP | 28 | SP- | 6.02 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 223 | 56 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2028 · 4.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.99 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | .244 | 4.90 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.09 | 4.78 | 160 | 56 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 135 | 55 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 55 |
| Chris Heston R 2025 · 5.90 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.90 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 4.9% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 321 | 55 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.