Darren McCaughan
P
Louisville Bats
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA4.88
FIP5.11
K%14.3%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%7.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.4
Whiff%
p1015.5%
K%
p1014.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
CT+1.2 (9%)
CH+0.9 (12%)
SL+0.8 (42%)
SI (23%)
FB-2.1 (37%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 9 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 37.5% | 6.2% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 3.75 | 0.73 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 9 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 37.5% | 6.2% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 3.75 | 0.85 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 642 | 129 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 1.5% | 3.08 | 3.33 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 642 | 129 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.1% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 1.1% | 3.08 | 2.72 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 144 | 606 | 125 | 21 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 4.38 | 5.61 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 144 | 606 | 125 | 21 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.6% | 3.5% | 17.2% | 4.0% | 4.38 | 3.97 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 130 | 534 | 107 | 21 | 23 | 96% | 5.7 | 18.4% | 3.8% | 14.6% | 4.9% | 4.71 | 4.74 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 130 | 534 | 107 | 21 | 23 | 96% | 5.7 | 20.0% | 3.9% | 16.1% | 4.3% | 4.71 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 28 | 28 | 154 | 642 | 141 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 3.95 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 28 | 28 | 154 | 642 | 141 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 3.94 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 144 | 640 | 140 | 45 | 31 | 89% | 5.1 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 5.81 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 144 | 640 | 140 | 45 | 31 | 89% | 5.1 | 21.9% | 7.0% | 14.8% | 4.8% | 5.81 | 4.89 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 22 | 128 | 560 | 120 | 45 | 22 | 76% | 4.4 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 4.7% | 5.22 | 5.09 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 22 | 128 | 560 | 120 | 45 | 22 | 76% | 4.4 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 5.22 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 12 | 102 | 456 | 102 | 34 | 20 | 41% | 3.5 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.32 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 12 | 102 | 456 | 102 | 34 | 20 | 41% | 3.5 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 14.9% | 4.4% | 4.93 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 14 | 11 | 55 | 262 | 51 | 19 | 17 | 79% | 4.0 | 17.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 9.11 | 6.54 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 275 | 39 | 19 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.11 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 121 | 537 | 90 | 38 | 27 | — | — | 16.8% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 6.82 | 5.76 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 7 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 14.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 27 | 163 | 689 | 98 | 50 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.25 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 151 | 638 | 90 | 49 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.26 | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 36 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 49 | 27 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.26 | 5.43 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 31 | 211 | 916 | 136 | 70 | 37 | 69% | 4.7 | 14.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 5.41 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 30 | 200 | 868 | 129 | 66 | 35 | 69% | 4.7 | 14.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 5.41 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 213 | 173 | 1019 | 4390 | 807 | 276 | 180 | 81% | 4.8 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 4.59 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 34 | 200 | 862 | 158 | 54 | 35 | 81% | 4.8 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Darren McCaughan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | — | 5.34 | 14.2% | 6.8% | 314 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 71 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 71 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2028 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 68 |
| Phil Hughes R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.94 | 13.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | .323 | 5.53 | 17.7% | 12.7% | 86 | +0.59 | 4.61 | 301 | 66 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 66 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 65 |
| Chris Heston R 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 64 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2025 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 64 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 64 |
| Taylor Hill R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.69 | 13.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | .371 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 542 | 63 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 63 |
| Mat Latos R 2025 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 63 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 62 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 62 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .293 | 5.01 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 170 | +0.43 | 3.89 | 250 | 62 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 62 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 61 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 61 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 60 |
| Doug Fister R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.25 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.03 | 3.59 | 455 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 163 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 1.46 | 5.06 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Mike Pelfrey ('17) | 3 | 135 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 1.14 | 4.99 |