Darren McCaughan

Darren McCaughan P Louisville Bats

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 175 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.12

FIP5.41

K%13.3%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP175

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL7070

CMD5555

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.4

Whiff%

p1015.5%

p1014.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

CT+1.2 (9%)

CH+0.9 (12%)

SL+0.8 (42%)

SI (23%)

FB-2.1 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	9	0	12	48	18	3	0	0%	1.3	37.5%	6.2%	31.2%	0.0%	3.75	0.73	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	9	0	12	48	18	3	0	0%	1.3	37.5%	6.2%	31.2%	0.0%	3.75	0.85	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	642	129	37	7	100%	5.5	15.7%	5.8%	9.9%	1.4%	3.08	3.26	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	642	129	37	7	100%	5.5	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	1.1%	3.08	2.72	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	144	606	125	21	24	100%	5.5	17.1%	3.7%	13.4%	5.2%	4.38	4.97	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	144	606	125	21	24	100%	5.5	20.6%	3.5%	17.2%	4.0%	4.38	3.97	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	130	534	107	21	23	96%	5.7	18.4%	3.8%	14.6%	4.8%	4.71	4.66	+0.4
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	130	534	107	21	23	96%	5.7	20.0%	3.9%	16.1%	4.3%	4.71	4.24	+1.0
2022	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	28	28	154	642	141	42	22	100%	5.5	19.3%	6.9%	12.5%	3.3%	4.55	4.15	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	28	28	154	642	141	42	22	100%	5.5	22.0%	6.5%	15.4%	3.4%	4.55	3.94	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	144	640	140	45	31	89%	5.1	18.2%	6.2%	12.1%	4.7%	5.81	4.89	+0.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	144	640	140	45	31	89%	5.1	21.9%	7.0%	14.8%	4.8%	5.81	4.89	+0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	128	560	120	45	22	76%	4.4	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	4.5%	5.22	4.88	+0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	128	560	120	45	22	76%	4.4	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	4.5%	5.22	4.88	+0.0
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	128	560	120	45	22	76%	4.4	21.4%	8.0%	13.4%	3.9%	5.22	4.52	+0.6
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	12	102	456	102	34	20	41%	3.5	19.1%	6.9%	12.2%	4.1%	4.93	4.59	-0.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	12	102	456	102	34	20	41%	3.5	19.1%	6.9%	12.2%	4.1%	4.93	4.59	-0.0
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	12	102	456	102	34	20	41%	3.5	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	4.4%	4.93	4.64	-0.1
2026	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	14	11	55	262	51	19	17	79%	4.0	16.7%	6.5%	10.2%	7.1%	9.11	6.43	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	14	11	55	262	51	19	17	79%	4.0	16.7%	6.5%	10.2%	7.1%	9.11	6.43	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	14	11	55	262	51	19	17	79%	4.0	19.5%	7.3%	12.2%	6.5%	9.11	6.28	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	6	61	284	46	23	13	30%	3.1	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	4.6%	6.02	5.48	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CIN	29	29	175	739	98	42	31	100%	6.0	13.3%	5.7%	7.6%	4.2%	5.12	5.41	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	27	27	162	684	91	43	30	100%	6.0	13.4%	6.3%	7.0%	4.4%	5.33	5.55	-1.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	148	627	82	43	28	100%	5.9	13.2%	6.9%	6.3%	4.5%	5.53	5.73	-1.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	60	253	34	16	11	100%	6.0	13.4%	6.3%	7.0%	4.4%	5.33	5.55	-0.4
2029	33	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	82	346	46	24	16	100%	5.9	13.2%	6.9%	6.3%	4.5%	5.53	5.73	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	30	203	881	125	63	40	68%	4.6	14.2%	7.1%	7.1%	4.5%	5.62	5.27	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	29	200	869	123	62	39	68%	4.7	14.2%	7.1%	7.1%	4.5%	5.62	5.27	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		213	173	1019	4390	799	257	179	81%	4.8	18.2%	5.9%	12.4%	4.1%	4.87	4.54	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	34	200	862	157	50	35	81%	4.8	18.2%	5.9%	12.4%	4.1%	4.87	4.54	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darren McCaughan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	13.3%	5.7%	4.2%	—	5.64	13.3%	6.7%	310	+0.23	—	—	—
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	70
Dylan Axelrod R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP	4.28	13.7%	6.3%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	468	67
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	66
Thad Weber R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	31	SP	4.40	10.5%	5.9%	2.6%	.316	5.25	13.2%	8.8%	55	+0.85	4.40	378	65
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	65
Scott Carroll R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP	4.94	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.289	5.71	14.4%	5.8%	22	+0.77	3.92	377	64
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	63
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	62
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	61
Nestor Molina R 2019 · 4.27 FIP	30	SP	4.27	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	401	61
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	60
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	31	SP-	4.92	14.9%	7.2%	4.0%	.277	5.19	16.3%	8.8%	259	+0.27	3.97	567	60
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	60
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	59
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	59
Donovan Hand R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	31	SP	4.56	12.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	305	58
Adrian Garza R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	31	SP	5.18	9.7%	5.6%	4.0%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	229	58
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	58
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	58
Mario Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	30	SP	4.53	14.1%	5.0%	3.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	368	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	137	13.6%	6.5%	1.70	5.39
Ryan Rupe ('03)	2.4	119	16.9%	7.7%	1.53	5.85
Bryan Rekar ('02)	3.3	109	13.1%	7.1%	1.36	5.62
Jose Lima ('06)	7.8	143	14.4%	5.8%	1.53	5.26
Bob Wolcott ('99)	1.6	81	12.2%	7.8%	1.71	5.86
Darrell May ('05)	3.3	132	14.3%	7.3%	1.68	5.16
Chad Ogea ('99)	3.2	127	13.4%	7.8%	1.32	4.88