Skylar Arias — OGILVIE

Skylar Arias P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 204 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 120

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%23.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	11	0	19	83	20	3	0	0%	1.8	16.4%	4.5%	11.9%	0.0%	3.72	2.29	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	11	0	19	83	20	3	0	0%	1.8	24.1%	3.6%	20.5%	0.0%	3.72	1.50	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	5	0	7	28	14	4	1	0%	1.5	50.0%	14.3%	35.7%	3.6%	1.23	2.65	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	5	0	7	28	14	4	1	0%	1.5	50.0%	14.3%	35.7%	3.6%	1.23	2.69	—
2018	21	A MLE	Lake County Captains	15	0	23	110	33	15	1	0%	1.6	22.2%	16.1%	6.1%	1.1%	4.63	3.87	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lake County Captains	15	0	23	110	33	15	1	0%	1.6	30.0%	13.6%	16.4%	0.9%	4.63	2.76	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	67	278	81	32	1	3%	1.7	20.6%	13.9%	6.7%	0.5%	1.75	3.40	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	67	278	81	32	1	3%	1.7	29.1%	11.5%	17.6%	0.4%	1.75	2.31	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	36	0	40	198	53	35	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	19.4%	2.2%	1.4%	6.92	4.48	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	36	0	40	198	53	35	2	0%	1.1	26.8%	17.7%	9.1%	1.0%	6.92	3.72	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	24	115	40	16	1	0%	0.9	27.4%	16.6%	10.8%	1.3%	4.44	3.58	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	24	115	40	16	1	0%	0.9	34.8%	13.9%	20.9%	0.9%	4.44	2.32	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	14	1	24	111	34	17	2	7%	1.7	24.8%	16.8%	8.0%	2.1%	4.07	4.27	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	14	1	24	111	34	17	2	7%	1.7	24.8%	16.8%	8.0%	2.1%	4.07	4.27	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	14	1	24	111	34	17	2	7%	1.7	30.6%	15.3%	15.3%	1.8%	4.07	3.47	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	BOS	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.3%	12.4%	3.0%	4.55	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BOS	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.4%	11.9%	3.2%	4.63	4.70	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	BOS	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.4%	11.9%	3.2%	4.63	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.4%	11.9%	3.2%	4.63	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.4%	11.9%	3.2%	4.63	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		146	2	206	923	211	140	10	1%	1.4	22.9%	15.2%	7.7%	1.1%	3.85	3.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	2	200	898	205	136	10	1%	1.4	22.9%	15.2%	7.7%	1.1%	3.85	3.69	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Skylar Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	23.8%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.70	23.4%	11.9%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	80
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	79
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	78
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	77
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	77
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	77
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	74
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	74
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	74
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	74
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	74
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	74
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	73
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	73
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	73
Dario Alvarez L 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	20.7%	12.4%	1.0%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	160	72
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	72
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	71
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	70