Skylar Arias
P
Portland Sea Dogs
Age 29
LHP
6'3" / 204 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.5%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Indians | 11 | 0 | 19 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 3.72 | 2.29 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Indians | 11 | 0 | 19 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.1% | 3.6% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 3.72 | 1.50 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians | 5 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 35.7% | 3.6% | 1.23 | 2.65 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians | 5 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 35.7% | 3.6% | 1.23 | 2.69 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lake County Captains | 15 | 0 | 23 | 110 | 33 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.2% | 16.1% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 4.63 | 3.82 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lake County Captains | 15 | 0 | 23 | 110 | 33 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.0% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 0.9% | 4.63 | 2.76 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 67 | 278 | 81 | 32 | 1 | 3% | 1.7 | 20.6% | 13.9% | 6.7% | 0.5% | 1.75 | 3.40 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 67 | 278 | 81 | 32 | 1 | 3% | 1.7 | 29.1% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 0.4% | 1.75 | 2.31 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 36 | 0 | 40 | 198 | 53 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 19.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 6.92 | 4.58 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 36 | 0 | 40 | 198 | 53 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 17.7% | 9.1% | 1.0% | 6.92 | 3.72 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 24 | 115 | 40 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.4% | 16.6% | 10.8% | 1.3% | 4.44 | 3.61 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 24 | 115 | 40 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.8% | 13.9% | 20.9% | 0.9% | 4.44 | 2.32 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 14 | 1 | 24 | 111 | 34 | 17 | 2 | 7% | 1.7 | 24.8% | 16.8% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 4.07 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 14 | 1 | 24 | 111 | 34 | 17 | 2 | 7% | 1.7 | 30.6% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 1.8% | 4.07 | 3.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 0 | 14 | 60 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.15 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 146 | 2 | 206 | 923 | 211 | 140 | 10 | 1% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 15.2% | 7.7% | 1.1% | 3.85 | 3.71 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 2 | 200 | 898 | 205 | 136 | 10 | 1% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 15.2% | 7.7% | 1.1% | 3.85 | 3.71 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Skylar Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.53 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 20 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 80 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 78 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 78 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 77 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 77 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 77 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 76 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 76 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 76 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 76 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 75 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 75 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .253 | 3.69 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 161 | -0.35 | 2.69 | 703 | 75 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 74 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 73 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.38 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.43 | 2.90 | 414 | 73 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 3.67 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.64 | 1.52 | 350 | 72 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 72 |