Skylar Arias
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'3" / 204 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.8%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Indians | 11 | 0 | 19 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 3.72 | 2.29 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians | 5 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.23 | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lake County Captains | 15 | 0 | 23 | 110 | 33 | 15 | 1 | 22.2% | 16.1% | 1.1% | 4.63 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 39 | 1 | 67 | 278 | 81 | 32 | 1 | 20.6% | 13.9% | 0.5% | 1.75 | 3.40 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 36 | 0 | 40 | 198 | 53 | 35 | 2 | 21.7% | 19.4% | 1.4% | 6.92 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 26 | 0 | 24 | 115 | 40 | 16 | 1 | 27.4% | 16.6% | 1.3% | 4.44 | 3.59 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 14 | 1 | 24 | 111 | 34 | 17 | 2 | 24.8% | 16.8% | 2.1% | 4.07 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 20 | — | 20 | 86 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 2 | 206 | 923 | 211 | 140 | 10 | 22.9% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 3.85 | 3.69 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 2 | 200 | 898 | 205 | 136 | 10 | 22.9% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 3.85 | 3.69 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Skylar Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 20 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 83 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 82 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 79 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 79 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 78 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 77 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 77 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 76 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 75 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 75 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.74 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .253 | 3.72 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 161 | -0.02 | 2.70 | 655 | 75 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 75 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 74 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.72 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .329 | 3.96 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.76 | 1.36 | 350 | 73 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.