Darius Vines

P Louisville Bats

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX4 levels	15	11	70	2.84	4.15	22.7%	8.3%	0.6	K 17.1% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.83
2024	26	MIX3 levels	21	19	107	5.05	4.87	17.3%	7.4%	0.0	K 15.0% · BB 7.1% · FIP 5.25
2026	28	AAACIN	6	1	15	6.60	5.10	14.5%	11.6%	—	K 12.5% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.12
2027PROJ	29	MLBCIN	9	9	56	5.02	5.28	14.5%	9.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBCIN	3	3	19	5.20	5.39	14.7%	9.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBCIN	4	4	27	5.37	5.54	14.6%	10.0%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%29

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · Miguel Ruiz (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.02

FIP5.28

K%14.5%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%5.1%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.8

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p1013.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.385

SL (14%)

CU (5%)

CT (11%)

CH-2.9 (31%)

FB-3.9 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	9.00	-1.12	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	9.00	-0.90	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	443	129	29	15	100%	5.0	22.1%	7.6%	14.5%	4.7%	2.92	4.75	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	443	129	29	15	100%	5.0	29.1%	6.5%	22.6%	3.4%	2.92	3.32	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	141	588	156	43	17	93%	5.2	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	3.7%	3.77	4.30	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	141	588	156	43	17	93%	5.2	26.5%	7.3%	19.2%	2.9%	3.77	3.37	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	11	70	278	63	23	10	73%	4.6	17.1%	8.4%	8.7%	3.9%	2.84	4.83	+0.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	11	70	278	63	23	10	73%	4.6	22.7%	8.3%	14.4%	3.6%	2.84	4.15	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	107	462	80	34	19	90%	5.1	15.0%	7.1%	7.9%	4.6%	5.05	5.25	-0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	107	462	80	34	19	90%	5.1	15.0%	7.1%	7.9%	4.6%	5.05	5.25	-0.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	19	107	462	80	34	19	90%	5.1	17.3%	7.4%	10.0%	4.1%	5.05	4.87	+0.0
2026	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	6	1	15	69	10	8	2	17%	2.5	12.5%	10.4%	2.0%	3.2%	6.60	5.12	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	6	1	15	69	10	8	2	17%	2.5	12.5%	10.4%	2.0%	3.2%	6.60	5.12	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	6	1	15	69	10	8	2	17%	2.5	14.5%	11.6%	2.9%	2.9%	6.60	5.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	4	34	150	23	11	7	44%	3.8	15.3%	7.3%	8.0%	4.7%	5.82	5.39	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	9	9	56	236	34	22	8	100%	6.2	14.5%	9.5%	5.1%	3.3%	5.02	5.28	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	53	223	33	22	8	100%	5.9	14.7%	9.7%	5.0%	3.5%	5.20	5.39	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	49	208	30	21	8	100%	6.2	14.6%	10.0%	4.6%	3.7%	5.37	5.54	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	19	80	12	8	3	100%	6.3	14.7%	9.7%	5.0%	3.5%	5.20	5.39	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	27	114	17	11	4	100%	6.8	14.6%	10.0%	4.6%	3.7%	5.37	5.54	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	12	81	347	52	31	14	71%	4.7	15.0%	8.8%	6.2%	4.1%	5.52	5.18	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	29	200	860	129	77	35	70%	4.8	15.0%	8.8%	6.2%	4.1%	5.52	5.18	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		92	78	444	1844	354	143	77	85%	4.8	19.2%	7.8%	11.4%	4.2%	3.83	4.75	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	35	200	830	159	65	34	85%	4.8	19.2%	7.8%	11.4%	4.2%	3.83	4.75	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darius Vines (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	—	5.46	14.7%	4.8%	102	+0.18	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	82
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	80
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	75
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	75
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	74
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	72
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	72
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	72
Samuel Deduno R 2012 · 5.22 FIP	29	SP	5.22	16.4%	15.3%	2.9%	.260	3.94	16.6%	7.2%	230	-1.28	2.99	327	71
Scott Carroll R 2014 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP-	4.35	11.2%	7.7%	2.2%	.296	4.52	11.9%	3.7%	248	+0.17	3.92	377	71
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	71
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	70
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	70
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	70
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	70
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	69
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	69
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	69
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	14.8%	9.3%	1.44	5.30
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*