Pedro Alfonseca — OGILVIE

Pedro Alfonseca P Dayton Dragons

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 178 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 16 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%21.3%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	23	122	24	27	1	0%	1.2	14.8%	33.0%	-18.2%	1.6%	7.71	6.93	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	23	122	24	27	1	0%	1.2	19.7%	22.1%	-2.5%	0.8%	7.71	5.07	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	0	28	158	30	35	1	0%	1.4	14.6%	25.5%	-10.9%	0.6%	8.04	5.43	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	0	28	158	30	35	1	0%	1.4	14.6%	25.5%	-10.9%	0.6%	8.04	5.43	—
2024	26	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	20	0	28	158	30	35	1	0%	1.4	19.0%	22.2%	-3.2%	0.6%	8.04	5.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	15	0	16	68	14	10	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.0%	6.3%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	18	12	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	14.7%	6.4%	3.2%	5.22	5.29	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	14.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.36	5.43	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	14.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.36	5.05	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	132	33	0%	1.1	21.1%	14.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.36	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		40	0	51	280	41	81	3	0%	1.3	14.7%	28.8%	-14.1%	1.1%	7.89	6.08	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	1091	160	314	12	0%	1.3	14.7%	28.8%	-14.1%	1.1%	7.89	6.08	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Alfonseca (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	21.3%	15.0%	2.9%	—	5.29	21.1%	6.4%	20	+0.09	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	78
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	76
Edwar Ramirez R 2010 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	18.5%	16.7%	2.0%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	109	76
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	75
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	75
Scott Dohmann R 2007 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	19.1%	12.5%	2.2%	.289	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	15	+0.10	4.28	173	75
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	74
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	74
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	73
Irving Jimenez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	27	SU	4.51	18.9%	12.4%	2.6%	.417	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	104	73
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	73
Jordan Jankowski R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	21.8%	16.9%	2.5%	.396	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	196	73