Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 11 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 2.66 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 11 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.6% | 11.5% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 1.75 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 53 | 220 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 6.2% | 14.6% | 0.7% | 3.57 | 2.49 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 53 | 220 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 5.5% | 21.4% | 0.5% | 3.57 | 1.80 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 41 | 0 | 53 | 217 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 8.1% | 16.5% | 1.9% | 4.27 | 3.11 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 41 | 0 | 53 | 217 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.4% | 7.4% | 23.0% | 0.9% | 4.27 | 2.00 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 41 | 178 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 3% | 1.2 | 31.4% | 7.5% | 23.9% | 1.9% | 5.23 | 2.44 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 41 | 178 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 3% | 1.2 | 34.8% | 7.3% | 27.5% | 1.7% | 5.23 | 1.99 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 66 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 1.7% | 3.29 | 3.36 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 66 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 1.5% | 3.29 | 3.07 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 32 | 7 | 52 | 226 | 49 | 29 | 8 | 22% | 1.6 | 19.1% | 13.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.12 | 5.40 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 32 | 7 | 52 | 226 | 49 | 29 | 8 | 22% | 1.6 | 21.7% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 3.12 | 4.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 34 | 0 | 37 | 164 | 52 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.2% | 12.8% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 3.16 | 2.17 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | LAD | 38 | 0 | 39 | 167 | 31 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 14.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.55 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | LAD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 30 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 14.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.55 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 76 | 331 | 83 | 46 | 5 | — | — | 25.0% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | 4.39 | 3.86 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 44 | 185 | 83 | 46 | 5 | — | — | 44.8% | 25.1% | 19.6% | 2.9% | 7.67 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 46 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.55 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 41 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.66 | 5.79 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 36 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.85 | 6.02 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.55 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 39 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.66 | 5.79 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 32 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.85 | 6.02 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 228 | 0 | 241 | 1037 | 187 | 144 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 5.76 | 4.94 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 861 | 155 | 120 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 5.76 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 252 | 8 | 312 | 1319 | 322 | 130 | 23 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 1.7% | 3.63 | 3.23 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 5 | 200 | 845 | 206 | 83 | 15 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 1.7% | 3.63 | 3.23 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wyatt Mills (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.45 | 18.5% | 14.1% | 3.2% | — | 5.79 | 17.6% | 2.8% | 166 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 80 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 21.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 46 | -1.03 | 2.40 | 231 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Noah Song R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 75 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.69 | 4.11 | 156 | 74 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.42 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 241 | 73 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 72 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 72 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 72 |
| Grant Black R 2024 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 72 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.78 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .282 | 3.61 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 136 | -1.17 | 2.95 | 260 | 72 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 72 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.34 | 13.0% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 150 | 72 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 104 | 71 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 71 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.88 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 114 | 71 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 254 | 71 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.44 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .293 | 3.55 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 147 | -0.89 | 3.07 | 363 | 70 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.14 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .281 | 4.13 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -1.01 | 3.26 | 273 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 1.33 | 5.65 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |