Jesse Scholtens

P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs MLB ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

MLBRP40M40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX2 levels	35	20	132	4.99	4.86	18.1%	7.4%	0.1	K 17.0% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.82
2025	31	MIX3 levels	19	15	77	4.79	3.35	25.8%	7.3%	1.5	K 22.5% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.34
2026	32	MIX3 levels	24	14	102	4.43	5.15	18.5%	6.4%	-0.3	K 16.8% · BB 5.9% · FIP 5.44
2027PROJ	33	MLBTB	22	22	135	4.61	4.82	18.3%	5.4%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBTB	23	23	140	4.92	5.13	17.4%	5.9%	-0.4
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBTB	20	20	120	5.25	5.46	16.4%	6.4%	-0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo30

xwOBA vs21

K%19

Whiff%13

CompsMike Burns (age 31) · Elih Villanueva (age 31) · Sergio Valenzuela (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.61

FIP4.82

K%18.3%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP135

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p1320.1%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

FB+1.4 (44%)

SL+1.4 (41%)

SI (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	8	31	3	1	0	50%	3.8	9.7%	3.2%	6.5%	0.0%	1.17	2.69	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	8	31	3	1	0	50%	3.8	9.7%	3.2%	6.5%	0.0%	1.17	2.71	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	147	612	123	32	12	96%	5.9	15.3%	6.1%	9.2%	2.6%	3.60	4.02	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	147	612	123	32	12	96%	5.9	20.1%	5.2%	14.9%	2.0%	3.60	3.14	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	137	570	119	33	9	89%	5.1	17.2%	6.3%	10.9%	2.0%	4.14	3.55	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	137	570	119	33	9	89%	5.1	20.9%	5.8%	15.1%	1.6%	4.14	2.94	—
2019	25	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	20	125	544	129	39	15	83%	5.2	19.2%	7.9%	11.3%	2.5%	5.40	3.84	—
2019	25	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	20	125	544	129	39	15	83%	5.2	23.7%	7.2%	16.5%	2.8%	5.40	3.53	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	21	20	102	435	103	34	15	95%	4.8	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	3.3%	5.05	4.18	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	21	20	102	435	103	34	15	95%	4.8	23.7%	7.8%	15.9%	3.4%	5.05	4.00	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	37	15	83	362	92	29	13	41%	2.3	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	3.5%	4.10	4.18	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	37	15	83	362	92	29	13	41%	2.3	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	3.6%	4.10	3.96	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	20	132	569	103	42	24	57%	3.8	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	4.1%	4.99	4.82	+0.1
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	20	132	569	103	42	24	57%	3.8	18.1%	7.4%	10.7%	4.2%	4.99	4.86	+0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	77	329	85	24	9	79%	4.1	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	2.5%	4.79	3.34	+1.5
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	77	329	85	24	9	79%	4.1	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	2.5%	4.79	3.34	+1.5
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	15	77	329	85	24	9	79%	4.1	25.8%	7.3%	18.5%	2.7%	4.79	3.35	+1.5
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	14	102	438	81	28	22	58%	4.2	16.8%	5.9%	10.9%	5.5%	4.43	5.44	-0.6
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	14	102	438	81	28	22	58%	4.2	16.8%	5.9%	10.9%	5.5%	4.43	5.44	-0.6
2026	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	14	102	438	81	28	22	58%	4.2	18.5%	6.4%	12.1%	5.0%	4.43	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	13	141	624	107	46	28	32%	3.5	17.1%	7.4%	9.8%	4.5%	4.98	5.14	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	TB	22	22	135	570	104	31	23	100%	6.1	18.3%	5.4%	12.9%	4.0%	4.61	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	147	621	108	37	27	100%	6.1	17.4%	5.9%	11.5%	4.3%	4.92	5.13	-0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	132	557	92	36	26	100%	6.0	16.4%	6.4%	10.0%	4.7%	5.25	5.46	-0.8
2028	34	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	140	591	103	35	26	100%	6.1	17.4%	5.9%	11.5%	4.3%	4.92	5.13	-0.4
2029	35	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	120	507	83	33	24	100%	6.0	16.4%	6.4%	10.0%	4.7%	5.25	5.46	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	56	401	1721	293	113	77	67%	4.8	17.0%	6.6%	10.4%	4.5%	5.04	4.96	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	28	200	859	146	56	38	67%	4.8	17.0%	6.6%	10.4%	4.5%	5.04	4.96	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		214	153	912	3890	715	270	123	71%	4.3	18.4%	6.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.51	4.17	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	853	157	59	27	71%	4.3	18.4%	6.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.51	4.17	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesse Scholtens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	18.3%	5.4%	4.0%	—	5.29	16.9%	10.8%	279	+0.47	—	—	—
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	67
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	66
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	64
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	64
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	64
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	63
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	62
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	61
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	61
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	61
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	60
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	59
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	59
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	58
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	58
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	58
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	57
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	56
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	56
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	111	17.3%	6.4%	1.69	4.94
Paul Mitchell ('75-'80, 1 WAR*)	3.1	104	16.7%*	7.1%*	1.59*	4.98*
Jackson Todd ('77-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.4	72	17.5%*	7.1%*	1.69*	4.65*
Allen Ripley ('78-'82, 1 WAR*)	2.3	93	17.2%*	7.5%*	1.41*	5.06*
Tommy Milone ('23)	4.8	95	17.4%	5.7%	1.53	4.58
Luke Prokopec ('02)	1.2	77	14.1%	7.3%	1.87	5.30
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50