Brenan Hanifee — OGILVIE

Brenan Hanifee P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 90

ERA3.70

FIP3.87

K%15.6%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6565

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p1014.4%

p1010.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

FB+3.0 (75%)

SI (63%)

SL-1.7 (21%)

CH-2.4 (4%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	23	132	529	85	22	8	100%	5.7	11.9%	4.9%	7.0%	2.3%	2.86	3.96	—
2018	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	23	132	529	85	22	8	100%	5.7	16.1%	4.2%	11.9%	1.5%	2.86	3.10	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	22	129	566	78	57	12	92%	5.4	10.6%	11.6%	-1.0%	2.3%	4.60	4.95	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	24	22	129	566	78	57	12	92%	5.4	13.8%	10.1%	3.7%	2.1%	4.60	4.43	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	44	183	40	15	4	100%	3.4	18.1%	8.4%	9.6%	2.6%	3.92	4.07	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	44	183	40	15	4	100%	3.4	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	2.2%	3.92	3.49	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	13	95	422	85	30	12	46%	3.4	17.1%	6.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.44	4.36	+0.2
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	13	95	422	85	30	12	46%	3.4	17.1%	6.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.44	4.36	+0.2
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	13	95	422	85	30	12	46%	3.4	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.44	3.90	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	3	76	324	76	20	8	5%	1.4	20.7%	5.7%	14.9%	3.2%	3.89	3.85	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	3	76	324	76	20	8	5%	1.4	20.7%	5.7%	14.9%	3.2%	3.89	3.85	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	3	76	324	76	20	8	5%	1.4	23.5%	6.2%	17.3%	2.5%	3.89	3.26	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	66	282	47	13	3	2%	1.1	15.4%	4.6%	10.8%	1.2%	2.86	3.05	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	66	282	47	13	3	2%	1.1	15.4%	4.6%	10.8%	1.2%	2.86	3.05	+1.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	66	282	47	13	3	2%	1.1	16.7%	4.6%	12.1%	1.1%	2.86	2.86	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			101	5	116	496	76	24	11	5%	1.1	15.3%	4.8%	10.5%	2.2%	3.19	3.64	+1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	52	3	56	250	41	18	9	6%	1.1	14.3%	6.7%	7.6%	3.8%	5.30	4.86	-0.2
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	52	3	56	250	41	18	9	6%	1.1	14.3%	6.7%	7.6%	3.8%	5.30	4.86	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	DET	29	1	35	157	31	12	4	3%	1.2	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	2.5%	5.45	3.80	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	DET	23	2	21	93	10	6	5	9%	0.9	10.8%	6.5%	4.3%	5.4%	5.06	5.96	-0.3
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	DET	23	2	21	93	10	6	5	9%	0.9	10.8%	6.5%	4.3%	5.4%	5.06	5.96	-0.3
ROS	28	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	27	4	1	1	0%	1.1	15.6%	5.5%	10.1%	2.5%	3.70	3.87	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	DET	6	0	6	25	4	1	1	0%	1.0	15.6%	5.5%	10.1%	2.5%	3.70	3.87	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	62	277	45	19	10	—	—	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	3.5%	5.14	4.76	-0.1
FULL	28	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	28	117	45	19	10	—	—	38.7%	16.7%	22.0%	8.3%	11.59	6.50	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	70	0	73	310	44	18	10	0%	1.0	14.3%	5.7%	8.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.68	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	66	0	69	291	40	17	10	0%	1.0	13.6%	6.0%	7.7%	3.3%	4.75	4.88	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	67	0	70	296	42	17	9	0%	1.0	14.3%	5.7%	8.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.68	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	63	0	66	279	38	17	9	0%	1.0	13.6%	6.0%	7.7%	3.3%	4.75	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	5	257	1094	160	59	30	2%	1.1	14.6%	5.4%	9.3%	2.7%	3.97	4.04	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	4	200	850	124	46	23	2%	1.1	14.6%	5.4%	9.3%	2.7%	3.97	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		255	78	598	2556	374	184	68	31%	2.3	14.6%	7.2%	7.4%	2.6%	3.93	4.23	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	26	200	854	125	61	23	31%	2.3	14.6%	7.2%	7.4%	2.6%	3.93	4.23	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brenan Hanifee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	16.2%	5.2%	2.5%	—	4.78	14.0%	8.2%	142	+0.65	—	—	—
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	80
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	80
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	79
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	78
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	78
Pedro Echemendia R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	11.0%	5.1%	2.7%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	141	77
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	76
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	75
John Church R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	28	SU	3.84	13.2%	5.7%	2.1%	.278	2.78	17.7%	8.4%	30	-1.06	2.78	101	75
Diego Moreno R 2015 · 2.95 FIP	28	SU	2.95	17.9%	8.1%	0.6%	.257	3.21	21.6%	14.6%	78	+0.26	2.29	187	75
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	74
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	74
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	74
Warwick Saupold R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	13.7%	7.6%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	389	74
Ronnie Shaban R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SU	4.32	14.1%	5.3%	3.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	104	73
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	73
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	73
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	71	14.7%	5.6%	1.14	4.42
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57