Brenan Hanifee
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.5
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.44
FIP3.98
xFIP3.91
SIERA3.77
K%18.8%
BB%6.3%
K-BB%12.5%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL6565
CMD4545
K†4040
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p1016.1%
K%
p1015.4%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
FB+3.0 (75%)
SI (63%)
SL-1.7 (21%)
CH-2.4 (4%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 23 | 132 | 529 | 85 | 22 | 8 | 11.9% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 2.86 | 3.96 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 24 | 22 | 129 | 566 | 78 | 57 | 12 | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.60 | 4.97 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 13 | 13 | 44 | 183 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 13 | 95 | 422 | 85 | 30 | 12 | 18.1% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.36 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 55 | 3 | 76 | 324 | 76 | 20 | 8 | 21.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.89 | 3.87 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 60 | 1 | 66 | 282 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 15.4% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 2.86 | 2.99 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 7 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 9 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 17.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 3.51 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 57 | 245 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 3.51 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | DET | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | DET | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | DET | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 14.9% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | DET | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 21 | 12 | 5 | 14.2% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 210 | 75 | 550 | 2343 | 354 | 179 | 59 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 3.83 | 4.17 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 27 | 200 | 851 | 129 | 65 | 21 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 3.83 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brenan Hanifee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.08 | 17.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.28 | 17.8% | 11.1% | 140 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Chris Martin R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.21 | 1.72 | 402 | 84 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 82 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 82 |
| Anthony Bass R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 81 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 81 |
| Cole Johnson R 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 101 | 80 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 80 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 80 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.68 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.38 | 3.02 | 258 | 80 |
| Mark Serrano R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.10 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.2% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.29 | 3.10 | 120 | 80 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .276 | 3.94 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.48 | 3.46 | 295 | 79 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 79 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.42 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.85 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.43 | 2.67 | 333 | 79 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .359 | 5.13 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.78 | 3.35 | 108 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.06 | 17.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | .218 | 4.20 | 21.7% | 15.4% | 36 | +1.14 | 3.06 | 137 | 79 |
| Bo Schultz R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 78 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 15.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 140 | 78 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 78 |
| Jack Dallas R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.