Brenan Hanifee

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	55	3	76	3.89	3.26	23.5%	6.2%	1.2	K 21.2% · BB 5.7% · FIP 3.81
2025	27	MIX2 levels	60	1	66	2.86	2.86	16.7%	4.6%	1.3	K 15.4% · BB 4.6% · FIP 3.05
2026	28	MIX2 levels	53	3	57	5.21	4.59	16.9%	7.1%	-0.0	K 15.1% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.74
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	52	0	55	4.36	4.58	15.0%	5.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ93% MLB	30	MLBDET	29	0	30	4.62	4.79	14.3%	6.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ94% MLB	31	MLBDET	16	0	17	4.86	5.02	13.5%	6.5%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo74

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsRamon Delgado (age 29) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31) · Rodolfo Aguirre (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.36

FIP4.58

K%15.0%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6565

CMD4545

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p1014.4%

p1010.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	23	132	529	85	22	8	100%	5.7	11.9%	4.9%	7.0%	2.3%	2.86	3.96	—
2018	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	23	132	529	85	22	8	100%	5.7	16.1%	4.2%	11.9%	1.5%	2.86	3.10	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	22	129	566	78	57	12	92%	5.4	10.6%	11.6%	-1.0%	2.3%	4.60	4.95	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	24	22	129	566	78	57	12	92%	5.4	13.8%	10.1%	3.7%	2.1%	4.60	4.43	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	44	183	40	15	4	100%	3.4	18.1%	8.4%	9.6%	2.6%	3.92	4.07	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	44	183	40	15	4	100%	3.4	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	2.2%	3.92	3.49	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	13	95	422	85	30	12	46%	3.4	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	3.4%	4.44	4.31	+0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	13	95	422	85	30	12	46%	3.4	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.44	3.90	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	3	76	324	76	20	8	5%	1.4	21.2%	5.7%	15.4%	3.2%	3.89	3.81	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	3	76	324	76	20	8	5%	1.4	21.2%	5.7%	15.4%	3.2%	3.89	3.81	+0.7
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	3	76	324	76	20	8	5%	1.4	23.5%	6.2%	17.3%	2.5%	3.89	3.26	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	66	282	47	13	3	2%	1.1	15.4%	4.6%	10.8%	1.2%	2.86	3.05	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	66	282	47	13	3	2%	1.1	15.4%	4.6%	10.8%	1.2%	2.86	3.05	+1.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	66	282	47	13	3	2%	1.1	16.7%	4.6%	12.1%	1.1%	2.86	2.86	+1.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	3	57	254	43	18	9	6%	1.1	15.1%	6.6%	8.5%	3.8%	5.21	4.74	-0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	3	57	254	43	18	9	6%	1.1	15.1%	6.6%	8.5%	3.8%	5.21	4.74	-0.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	3	57	254	43	18	9	6%	1.1	16.9%	7.1%	9.8%	3.5%	5.21	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			101	5	116	496	76	24	11	5%	1.1	15.3%	4.8%	10.5%	2.2%	3.19	3.64	+1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	52	0	55	232	35	14	7	0%	1.1	15.0%	5.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.36	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	30	0	32	135	19	8	4	0%	1.1	14.3%	6.1%	8.2%	3.2%	4.62	4.79	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	17	0	18	77	10	5	3	0%	1.1	13.5%	6.5%	7.1%	3.4%	4.86	5.02	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	29	0	30	127	18	8	4	0%	1.0	14.3%	6.1%	8.2%	3.2%	4.62	4.79	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	16	0	17	72	10	5	2	0%	1.1	13.5%	6.5%	7.1%	3.4%	4.86	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		146	5	163	694	104	36	17	3%	1.1	14.9%	5.2%	9.7%	2.5%	3.63	3.88	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	6	200	854	128	44	21	3%	1.1	14.9%	5.2%	9.7%	2.5%	3.63	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		256	78	599	2560	381	184	68	30%	2.3	14.9%	7.2%	7.7%	2.6%	3.92	4.20	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	26	200	854	127	61	23	30%	2.3	14.9%	7.2%	7.7%	2.6%	3.92	4.20	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 36 IPFIP 3.68 → 3.96 (+0.28)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.50%	—	×0.860	17.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.45%	—	×0.900	6.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 6 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.31 (+0.32)K% 31.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.860	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×0.900	4.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.872	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 47 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.24 (+0.85)K% 26.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.98%	—	×0.860	22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.86%	—	×0.900	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.792	×1.100	4.08%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 90 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.31 (+0.48)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.55%	—	×0.860	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×0.900	6.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷0.901	×1.100	3.37%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 38 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.07 (+0.49)K% 22.3% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.29%	—	×0.810	18.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.100	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.170	×1.200	2.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Frederick Keys · 129 IPFIP 4.38 → 4.95 (+0.58)K% 13.8% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.78%	—	×0.770	10.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.150	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷1.135	×1.250	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 4.38 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 132 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.96 (+0.86)K% 16.1% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.07%	—	×0.740	11.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.16%	—	×1.180	4.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷0.872	×1.300	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brenan Hanifee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	15.0%	5.8%	3.0%	—	4.87	14.0%	7.8%	50	+0.29	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	78
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	75
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	75
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	74
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	72
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	71
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	71
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	70
Clay Condrey R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	13.1%	5.7%	2.5%	.333	3.79	12.2%	7.3%	161	-0.28	3.18	250	70
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	70
David Goforth R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	29	SU	4.07	14.1%	8.6%	2.0%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	256	69
Theo Denlinger R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	28	SU	4.23	15.3%	5.4%	3.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	140	69
Shawn Camp R 2005 · 3.58 FIP	29	SU	3.58	12.3%	4.4%	1.8%	.349	3.69	17.4%	12.2%	154	+0.11	2.79	589	69
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	69
Chad Paronto R 2002 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	14.9%	6.5%	1.9%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	160	68
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	68
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	68
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	38	14.9%	5.7%	1.02	3.84
Scott Atchison ('15)	1.7	50	17.7%	6.2%	0.91	3.63
Alex Wilson ('19)	1.7	55	16.5%	6.6%	0.84	3.44
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	2.4	60	16.8%	6.5%	0.88	3.50
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*