Kade Strowd

P Reno Aces

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	46	0	51	5.44	3.74	30.7%	12.1%	—	K 26.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.62
2025	27	MIX2 levels	54	0	61	3.10	2.99	25.2%	10.9%	1.1	K 23.0% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.16
2026	28	MIX2 levels	47	1	49	5.88	4.04	20.1%	14.4%	0.3	K 18.0% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.91
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	37	0	39	4.17	4.32	22.9%	12.5%	0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	30	MLBARI	31	0	33	4.39	4.53	22.3%	12.5%	0.0
2029PROJ84% MLB	31	MLBARI	28	0	29	4.60	4.74	21.6%	12.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo68

K%54

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Dustin Molleken (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.17

FIP4.32

K%22.9%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.262

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	1	38	173	45	15	6	5%	1.8	20.0%	10.0%	10.1%	4.2%	8.05	4.96	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	1	38	173	45	15	6	5%	1.8	26.0%	8.7%	17.3%	3.5%	8.05	3.97	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	17	67	24	6	2	8%	1.3	26.5%	11.3%	15.2%	4.0%	1.06	4.48	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	17	67	24	6	2	8%	1.3	35.8%	9.0%	26.9%	3.0%	1.06	2.86	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	35	0	55	255	67	32	7	0%	1.6	21.3%	13.8%	7.5%	2.7%	5.20	4.55	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	35	0	55	255	67	32	7	0%	1.6	26.3%	12.5%	13.7%	2.7%	5.20	4.06	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	51	231	71	28	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	12.5%	14.0%	4.0%	5.44	4.62	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	51	231	71	28	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	12.5%	14.0%	4.0%	5.44	4.62	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	51	231	71	28	7	0%	1.1	30.7%	12.1%	18.6%	3.0%	5.44	3.74	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	61	258	65	28	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	1.3%	3.10	3.16	+1.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	61	258	65	28	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	1.3%	3.10	3.16	+1.0
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	61	258	65	28	3	0%	1.1	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	1.2%	3.10	2.99	+1.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	49	229	46	33	3	2%	1.0	18.0%	11.7%	6.3%	1.5%	5.88	3.91	+0.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	49	229	46	33	3	2%	1.0	18.0%	11.7%	6.3%	1.5%	5.88	3.91	+0.4
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	49	229	46	33	3	2%	1.0	20.1%	14.4%	5.7%	1.3%	5.88	4.04	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	0	29	119	25	18	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.1%	5.9%	0.8%	1.86	3.69	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	37	0	39	165	38	21	4	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.5%	10.4%	2.2%	4.17	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	39	0	41	175	39	22	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	2.5%	4.39	4.53	+0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	ARI	32	0	34	143	31	18	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	2.7%	4.60	4.74	-0.1
2030	32	MLB MLE	ARI	27	0	29	121	25	15	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	3.0%	4.82	4.98	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	31	0	33	139	31	17	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	2.5%	4.39	4.53	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	26	15	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	2.7%	4.60	4.74	-0.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	ARI	24	0	25	106	22	14	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	3.0%	4.82	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	0	116	485	104	64	11	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.2%	8.3%	2.2%	3.90	4.19	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	838	180	111	19	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.2%	8.3%	2.2%	3.90	4.19	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		216	3	272	1213	268	142	33	1%	1.3	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	2.7%	5.04	4.20	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	2	200	893	198	105	24	1%	1.3	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	2.7%	5.04	4.20	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 46 IPFIP 3.75 → 3.91 (+0.16)K% 20.9% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.860	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.02%	—	×0.900	11.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 35 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.11 (+0.31)K% 26.8% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.80%	—	×0.860	23.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.80%	—	×0.900	8.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷0.945	×1.100	1.52%

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 41 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.62 (+0.39)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.860	26.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.85%	—	×0.900	12.46%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷0.996	×1.100	3.96%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 10 IPFIP 0.87 → 1.40 (+0.53)K% 30.6% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.810	24.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.78%	—	×1.100	3.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.249	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 0.87 → 1.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 55 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.55 (+0.57)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.27%	—	×0.810	21.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.55%	—	×1.100	13.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.208	×1.200	2.73%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 15 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.48 (+1.24)K% 34.4% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.43%	—	×0.770	26.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.84%	—	×1.150	11.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷1.029	×1.250	3.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 38 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.96 (+1.05)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.01%	—	×0.770	20.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.67%	—	×1.150	9.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.041	×1.250	4.16%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kade Strowd (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	22.9%	12.5%	2.2%	—	4.72	21.7%	9.1%	104	+0.40	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	78
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	77
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	76
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	75
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	75
Chuck King R 2024 · 3.17 FIP	26	SU	3.17	19.4%	9.9%	0.8%	.308	4.25	15.8%	8.7%	256	+1.08	3.17	294	75
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	75
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	74
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	74
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	74
Scott Dohmann R 2007 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	19.1%	12.5%	2.2%	.289	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	15	+0.10	4.28	173	74
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	74
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	74
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	74
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	37	22.0%	13.0%	0.88	4.04
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Sam Freeman ('20)	1.2	47	22.6%	13.3%	0.65	3.58
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*