Aaron Leasher prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Aaron Leasher P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%18.8%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	7	7	23	107	23	11	1	100%	3.2	14.6%	12.9%	1.8%	1.3%	5.56	4.21	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	7	7	23	107	23	11	1	100%	3.2	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	0.9%	5.56	3.10	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	119	520	117	52	7	75%	4.9	16.8%	11.7%	5.0%	1.6%	3.49	4.07	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	119	520	117	52	7	75%	4.9	22.5%	10.0%	12.5%	1.3%	3.49	3.21	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	122	511	114	38	12	83%	5.3	17.5%	7.9%	9.6%	3.1%	3.60	4.31	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	122	511	114	38	12	83%	5.3	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	2.3%	3.60	3.44	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	65	280	62	26	6	94%	4.0	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	2.7%	3.76	4.30	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	65	280	62	26	6	94%	4.0	22.1%	9.3%	12.9%	2.1%	3.76	3.59	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	35	11	87	381	91	38	10	31%	2.5	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	2.5%	4.23	4.04	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	35	11	87	381	91	38	10	31%	2.5	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	2.6%	4.23	3.81	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	9	64	287	51	52	5	31%	2.2	15.1%	17.1%	-1.9%	1.8%	5.37	4.98	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	9	64	287	51	52	5	31%	2.2	15.1%	17.1%	-1.9%	1.8%	5.37	4.98	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	9	64	287	51	52	5	31%	2.2	17.8%	18.1%	-0.3%	1.7%	5.37	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.8%	13.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.15	5.15	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SD	7	7	40	170	32	22	5	100%	5.8	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	3.1%	5.19	5.27	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	15	63	12	8	2	100%	7.5	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	3.1%	5.19	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	15	63	12	8	2	100%	7.4	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	3.1%	5.19	4.89	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	108	27	100%	6.1	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	3.1%	5.19	4.89	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		134	79	479	2086	367	232	48	59%	3.6	17.6%	11.1%	6.4%	2.3%	4.04	4.29	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	33	200	870	153	97	20	59%	3.6	17.6%	11.1%	6.4%	2.3%	4.04	4.29	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Leasher (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	18.8%	13.2%	2.9%	—	5.27	18.9%	5.8%	40	+0.12	—	—	—
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	76
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	68
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	68
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	66
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	65
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	63
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	62
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	60
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	60
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	59
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	59
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	58
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	57
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	56
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	454	56
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	55
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	55
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	55
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	54
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	18.9%	13.1%	1.17	5.17
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57