TJ Shook

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 217 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AANYM	30	11	85	4.66	2.98	29.2%	7.9%	—	K 23.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.15
2025	27	MIX2 levels	36	2	56	2.41	2.99	26.4%	7.4%	—	K 22.2% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.35
2026	28	MIX2 levels	53	0	65	4.02	4.56	20.8%	11.3%	-0.0	K 18.0% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	29	MLBCOL	128	0	134	4.43	4.43	19.6%	8.1%	0.2
2028PROJ50% MLB	30	MLBCOL	61	0	64	4.52	4.59	19.5%	8.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ65% MLB	31	MLBCOL	72	0	76	4.65	4.76	19.3%	8.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control60Command60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31) · Ramon Delgado (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%19.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP134

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	53	229	71	28	7	100%	4.1	21.7%	13.8%	8.0%	3.4%	4.96	4.90	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	53	229	71	28	7	100%	4.1	31.0%	12.2%	18.8%	3.1%	4.96	3.73	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	114	512	118	57	22	84%	4.6	18.3%	12.4%	6.0%	5.3%	4.74	6.01	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	114	512	118	57	22	84%	4.6	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	4.3%	4.74	5.04	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	25	12	97	412	107	36	13	48%	3.9	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	3.6%	4.62	4.51	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	25	12	97	412	107	36	13	48%	3.9	26.0%	8.7%	17.2%	3.2%	4.62	3.75	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	30	11	85	366	107	29	9	37%	2.8	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.5%	4.66	4.15	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	30	11	85	366	107	29	9	37%	2.8	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.5%	4.66	4.15	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	30	11	85	366	107	29	9	37%	2.8	29.2%	7.9%	21.3%	2.5%	4.66	2.98	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	56	231	61	17	5	6%	1.6	22.2%	6.5%	15.8%	2.4%	2.41	3.35	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	56	231	61	17	5	6%	1.6	22.2%	6.5%	15.8%	2.4%	2.41	3.35	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	2	56	231	61	17	5	6%	1.6	26.4%	7.4%	19.0%	2.2%	2.41	2.99	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	65	284	59	32	9	0%	1.2	18.0%	10.9%	7.1%	2.7%	4.02	4.42	+0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	65	284	59	32	9	0%	1.2	18.0%	10.9%	7.1%	2.7%	4.02	4.42	+0.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	65	284	59	32	9	0%	1.2	20.8%	11.3%	9.5%	3.2%	4.02	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	0	8	36	7	2	3	0%	1.5	19.4%	5.6%	13.9%	8.3%	8.22	7.14	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	COL	128	0	134	566	111	46	16	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	COL	120	0	126	532	104	44	16	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.52	4.59	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	COL	112	0	118	496	96	43	16	0%	1.0	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	3.3%	4.65	4.76	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	COL	61	0	64	270	53	23	8	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	COL	72	0	76	321	62	28	11	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	3.3%	4.65	4.76	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	0	147	625	121	52	22	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.5%	4.78	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	849	165	71	30	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.5%	4.78	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		182	59	470	2034	420	212	76	32%	2.6	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.7%	4.35	4.72	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	25	200	866	179	90	32	32%	2.6	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.7%	4.35	4.72	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
TJ Shook (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	19.6%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.67	19.4%	10.9%	244	+0.24	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	77
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	75
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	74
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	71
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	70
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	70
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	69
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	69
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	69
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	69
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	69
Evan Scribner R 2013 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	16.7%	6.1%	2.9%	.271	4.59	26.9%	25.2%	60	+0.53	3.23	136	69
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	69
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	69
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	68
Theo Denlinger R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	28	SU	4.23	15.3%	5.4%	3.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	140	68
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	68
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	68
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	701	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	128	19.5%	8.3%	1.24	4.60
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Manny Salvo ('39-'43, 4 WAR*)	3.6	144	17.2%*	9.2%*	1.19*	4.37*
Red Embree ('41-'49, 5 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.9%*	9.1%*	1.32*	4.29*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Daniel Mengden ('22)	1.5	77	17.5%	7.8%	1.25	4.65