Paul Campbell — OGILVIE

Paul Campbell P Iowa Cubs

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.76

FIP4.92

K%18.3%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p180.350

CH+0.7

FB-6.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	9	1	20	80	19	6	1	11%	2.2	16.2%	9.4%	6.8%	1.7%	2.29	3.88	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	9	1	20	80	19	6	1	11%	2.2	23.8%	7.5%	16.2%	1.2%	2.29	2.74	—
2018	23	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	6	37	145	22	12	2	86%	5.2	11.2%	9.8%	1.5%	1.7%	2.70	4.34	—
2018	23	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	6	37	145	22	12	2	86%	5.2	15.2%	8.3%	6.9%	1.4%	2.70	3.59	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	145	581	112	35	9	74%	5.4	15.3%	6.8%	8.5%	2.0%	3.67	3.78	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	145	581	112	35	9	74%	5.4	19.3%	6.0%	13.3%	1.5%	3.67	3.09	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	4	37	165	35	16	6	21%	2.0	21.0%	8.1%	12.9%	4.2%	4.82	4.68	-0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	4	37	165	35	16	6	21%	2.0	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	3.6%	4.82	4.60	-0.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	2	1	8	38	9	5	2	50%	4.0	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	5.3%	11.25	5.66	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	2	1	8	38	9	5	2	50%	4.0	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	5.3%	11.25	5.97	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	50	202	42	15	5	100%	4.5	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	1.8%	3.78	3.79	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	50	202	42	15	5	100%	4.5	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	1.8%	3.78	3.79	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	50	202	42	15	5	100%	4.5	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	2.5%	3.78	3.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	1	27	124	26	10	5	6%	1.7	21.0%	8.1%	12.9%	4.0%	6.41	4.71	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	18	9	66	302	62	25	15	50%	3.7	17.0%	7.5%	9.6%	5.5%	7.33	5.60	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	18	9	66	302	62	25	15	50%	3.7	17.0%	7.5%	9.6%	5.5%	7.33	5.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	CHC	18	9	66	302	62	25	15	50%	3.7	20.5%	8.3%	12.3%	5.0%	7.33	5.14	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	14	59	11	5	2	100%	6.9	18.3%	9.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.92	-0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.3%	9.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	80	361	73	30	17	—	—	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.7%	6.88	5.49	-0.7
FULL	31	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	1	6	1	1	0	—	—	18.3%	9.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.54	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	152	643	115	61	23	100%	6.9	17.9%	9.4%	8.5%	3.5%	4.94	5.11	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	140	590	102	57	22	100%	7.0	17.4%	9.7%	7.6%	3.8%	5.14	5.32	-0.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	56	236	42	22	8	100%	7.0	17.9%	9.4%	8.5%	3.5%	4.94	5.11	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	77	325	56	32	12	100%	7.0	17.4%	9.7%	7.6%	3.8%	5.14	5.32	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	20	161	691	126	64	26	57%	4.6	18.2%	9.3%	8.9%	3.7%	5.28	4.80	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	25	200	859	156	79	32	57%	4.6	18.2%	9.3%	8.9%	3.7%	5.28	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		93	52	363	1513	247	120	45	56%	3.9	16.3%	7.9%	8.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.35	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	29	200	834	136	66	25	56%	3.9	16.3%	7.9%	8.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.35	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Campbell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	18.3%	9.2%	3.3%	—	5.21	17.7%	8.1%	292	+0.29	—	—	—
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	69
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	68
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	67
Clay Buchholz R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP-	4.94	15.8%	9.2%	3.7%	.260	4.18	17.8%	11.6%	180	-0.76	2.51	433	67
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	66
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	65
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	64
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	64
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	63
Bud Norris R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SP-	4.00	20.6%	9.1%	2.7%	.305	3.58	27.5%	19.3%	120	-0.42	3.51	316	63
Marco Estrada R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	32	SP-	4.32	18.1%	7.3%	3.3%	.213	4.55	20.6%	12.0%	506	+0.23	4.04	710	60
Doug Fister R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	14.0%	4.7%	3.1%	.302	4.33	16.2%	8.3%	352	+0.11	3.63	455	59
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	59
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	59
Tyler Cloyd R 2018 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	16.1%	6.0%	4.3%	.317	5.21	18.9%	9.4%	67	+0.37	3.89	250	59
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	58
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	57
Lucas Harrell R 2016 · 4.07 FIP	31	SP	4.07	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.57	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.50	3.57	139	57
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	57
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	152	17.9%	9.4%	1.37	4.94
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64