Paul Campbell
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.76
FIP4.92
K%18.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p4424.4%
K%
p4221.0%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
CH+0.7
FB-6.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Rays | 9 | 1 | 20 | 80 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 11% | 2.2 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 2.29 | 3.88 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Rays | 9 | 1 | 20 | 80 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 11% | 2.2 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 16.2% | 1.2% | 2.29 | 2.74 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 6 | 37 | 145 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 86% | 5.2 | 11.2% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.70 | 4.31 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 6 | 37 | 145 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 86% | 5.2 | 15.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 1.4% | 2.70 | 3.59 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 145 | 581 | 112 | 35 | 9 | 74% | 5.4 | 15.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 3.67 | 3.88 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 145 | 581 | 112 | 35 | 9 | 74% | 5.4 | 19.3% | 6.0% | 13.3% | 1.5% | 3.67 | 3.09 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 4 | 37 | 165 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 21% | 2.0 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 4.3% | 4.82 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 4 | 37 | 165 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 21% | 2.0 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 2 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 50% | 4.0 | 23.7% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 11.25 | 5.66 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 2 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 50% | 4.0 | 23.7% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 11.25 | 5.97 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 50 | 202 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 1.7% | 3.78 | 3.73 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 50 | 202 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 3.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 14 | 9 | 58 | 262 | 49 | 20 | 14 | 64% | 4.1 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.45 | 5.95 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 84 | 353 | 65 | 33 | 12 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 8.0 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 142 | 615 | 114 | 53 | 26 | — | — | 18.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 5.86 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 8 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 18.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 23 | 152 | 643 | 115 | 61 | 23 | 100% | 6.6 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.11 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 140 | 590 | 102 | 58 | 22 | 100% | 6.7 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 56 | 236 | 42 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 7.0 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 77 | 325 | 56 | 32 | 12 | 100% | 7.0 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 22 | 168 | 721 | 131 | 67 | 27 | 59% | 4.5 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 5.26 | 4.79 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 26 | 200 | 858 | 156 | 80 | 32 | 59% | 4.5 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 5.26 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 89 | 52 | 354 | 1473 | 239 | 118 | 45 | 58% | 4.0 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.41 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 29 | 200 | 831 | 135 | 67 | 25 | 58% | 4.0 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paul Campbell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 5.21 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 292 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 70 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 69 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 68 |
| Jerome Williams R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 68 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 68 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 68 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 66 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 65 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 64 |
| Tyson Ross R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.11 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .263 | 5.80 | 15.4% | 4.3% | 35 | +1.69 | 2.82 | 449 | 64 |
| Scott McGregor R 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.15 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.56 | 27.5% | 19.3% | 120 | -0.59 | 3.52 | 316 | 63 |
| Marco Estrada R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 63 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 61 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 61 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 61 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 61 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 60 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.25 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.03 | 3.59 | 455 | 60 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.64 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.42 | 3.64 | 139 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 152 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 1.37 | 4.94 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |