Paul Campbell
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP4.75
SIERA4.22
K%22.0%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.9%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p4424.4%
K%
p4221.0%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
CH+0.7
FB-6.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Rays | 9 | 1 | 20 | 80 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 2.29 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 6 | 37 | 145 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 11.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 2.70 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 27 | 20 | 145 | 581 | 112 | 35 | 9 | 15.3% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 3.67 | 3.79 | +2.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 19 | 4 | 37 | 165 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 4.82 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 2 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 11.25 | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 11 | 11 | 50 | 202 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 3.78 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CHC | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 41 | 171 | 36 | 14 | 6 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 18.7% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 44 | 300 | 1227 | 200 | 97 | 30 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 4.05 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 29 | 200 | 817 | 133 | 65 | 20 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 4.05 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paul Campbell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.90 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 100 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 78 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 74 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 74 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 73 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 73 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.58 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .257 | 5.67 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 20 | +1.09 | 2.33 | 318 | 73 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.38 | 13.2% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .283 | 3.66 | 19.4% | 11.5% | 210 | -0.72 | 2.96 | 358 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 73 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 72 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 72 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 71 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 71 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.65 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.52 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 136 | -1.13 | 3.01 | 260 | 71 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 71 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 70 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 70 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.