Eli Morgan — OGILVIE

Eli Morgan P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 30 RHP 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 92

ERA3.66

FIP3.97

K%20.9%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.399

CH+1.0 (33%)

SL-0.5 (30%)

FB-0.9 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	143	587	156	34	13	100%	5.3	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	2.8%	3.27	3.80	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	143	587	156	34	13	100%	5.3	26.6%	5.8%	20.8%	2.2%	3.27	2.81	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	141	576	146	39	15	96%	5.4	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	3.8%	3.39	4.37	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	141	576	146	39	15	96%	5.4	25.3%	6.8%	18.6%	2.6%	3.39	3.24	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	112	471	102	33	21	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	4.5%	5.08	4.68	+0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	112	471	102	33	21	100%	4.9	21.7%	7.0%	14.6%	4.5%	5.08	4.60	+0.4
2022	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	50	1	67	256	72	13	10	2%	1.3	28.1%	5.1%	23.0%	3.9%	3.37	3.52	+0.8
2022	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	50	1	67	256	72	13	10	2%	1.3	28.1%	5.1%	23.0%	3.9%	3.37	3.48	+0.9
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	61	0	67	299	75	23	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.01	3.61	+0.7
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	61	0	67	299	75	23	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.01	3.61	+0.7
2023	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	61	0	67	299	75	23	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.01	3.63	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	59	237	50	18	5	0%	1.3	19.9%	7.3%	12.7%	2.1%	2.15	3.50	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	59	237	50	18	5	0%	1.3	19.9%	7.3%	12.7%	2.1%	2.15	3.50	+0.7
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	59	237	50	18	5	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	2.1%	2.15	3.42	+0.8
2025	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	0	21	96	18	11	3	0%	1.1	17.6%	15.6%	2.0%	0.0%	6.86	3.59	+0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	0	21	96	18	11	3	0%	1.1	17.6%	15.6%	2.0%	0.0%	6.86	3.59	+0.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	0	21	96	18	11	3	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.5%	7.3%	3.1%	6.86	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			184	19	292	1227	282	79	51	10%	1.6	23.0%	6.4%	16.5%	4.2%	4.25	4.25	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	44	0	52	233	58	29	7	0%	1.2	21.8%	11.6%	10.2%	3.3%	3.10	4.52	+0.0
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	44	0	52	233	58	29	7	0%	1.2	21.8%	11.6%	10.2%	3.3%	3.10	4.52	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	KC	28	0	33	142	42	20	2	0%	1.2	29.6%	14.1%	15.5%	1.4%	1.91	3.16	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	KC	16	0	19	91	16	9	5	0%	1.2	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	5.5%	5.12	5.88	-0.3
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	KC	16	0	19	91	16	9	5	0%	1.2	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	5.5%	5.12	5.88	-0.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.7%	3.66	3.97	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	KC	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.7%	3.66	3.97	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	57	254	62	31	8	—	—	24.6%	12.2%	12.4%	3.0%	3.15	4.47	+0.1
FULL	30	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	24	103	62	31	8	—	—	60.7%	30.1%	30.6%	7.4%	7.40	5.82	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	KC	53	0	56	236	45	22	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.3%	9.7%	3.3%	4.65	4.87	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	49	0	52	218	40	21	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.7%	8.5%	3.5%	4.93	5.12	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	KC	50	0	53	224	43	21	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.3%	9.7%	3.3%	4.65	4.87	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	47	0	49	207	38	20	7	0%	1.0	18.2%	9.7%	8.5%	3.5%	4.93	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		286	19	399	1680	367	122	66	7%	1.4	21.8%	7.3%	14.6%	3.9%	4.38	4.34	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		143	10	200	841	184	61	33	7%	1.4	21.8%	7.3%	14.6%	3.9%	4.38	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		296	76	662	2755	600	211	91	26%	2.2	21.8%	7.6%	14.1%	3.3%	3.69	4.05	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	23	200	833	181	64	28	26%	2.2	21.8%	7.6%	14.1%	3.3%	3.69	4.05	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Morgan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	20.5%	8.8%	2.6%	—	4.99	18.7%	9.1%	108	+0.68	—	—	—
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	71
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	71
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	71
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	70
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	69
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	69
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	69
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	68
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	68
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	68
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	68
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	68
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	67
Carlos Villanueva R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	22.0%	7.6%	2.6%	.259	4.73	19.0%	15.9%	74	+1.11	3.62	135	67
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	67
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	67
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	67
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	67
Justin Miller R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	30	SU	4.44	16.9%	4.4%	4.0%	.305	4.88	25.8%	18.8%	81	+0.44	2.63	279	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	19.3%	9.3%	1.21	4.50
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38