Eli Morgan
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 30
RHP
5'10" / 190 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 91
ERA3.64
FIP3.97
K%22.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.2
Whiff%
p4724.8%
K%
p2318.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.400
CH+1.0 (33%)
SL-0.5 (30%)
FB-0.9 (37%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 143 | 587 | 156 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 3.27 | 3.83 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 143 | 587 | 156 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 5.3 | 26.6% | 5.8% | 20.8% | 2.2% | 3.27 | 2.81 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 141 | 576 | 146 | 39 | 15 | 96% | 5.4 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 4.5% | 3.39 | 4.78 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 141 | 576 | 146 | 39 | 15 | 96% | 5.4 | 25.3% | 6.8% | 18.6% | 2.6% | 3.39 | 3.24 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 112 | 471 | 102 | 33 | 21 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 4.5% | 5.08 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 112 | 471 | 102 | 33 | 21 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 5.08 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 50 | 1 | 67 | 256 | 72 | 13 | 10 | 2% | 1.3 | 28.1% | 5.1% | 23.0% | 3.9% | 3.37 | 3.52 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 50 | 1 | 67 | 256 | 72 | 13 | 10 | 2% | 1.3 | 28.1% | 5.1% | 23.0% | 3.9% | 3.37 | 3.48 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 61 | 0 | 67 | 299 | 75 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 3.62 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 61 | 0 | 67 | 299 | 75 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 3.63 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 59 | 237 | 50 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 2.15 | 3.53 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 59 | 237 | 50 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 2.1% | 2.15 | 3.42 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 0 | 21 | 96 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 18.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 6.86 | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 0 | 21 | 96 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 6.86 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 32 | 0 | 37 | 167 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 3.38 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | KC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 3.64 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | KC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 3.64 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | KC | — | — | 79 | 343 | 86 | 35 | 11 | — | — | 25.1% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 3.52 | 4.14 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | KC | — | — | 60 | 253 | 86 | 35 | 11 | — | — | 34.0% | 13.8% | 20.1% | 4.3% | 4.63 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | KC | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | KC | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 41 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | KC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 36 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 5.23 | 5.42 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | KC | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | KC | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | KC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 5.23 | 5.42 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 363 | 19 | 480 | 2021 | 437 | 157 | 78 | 5% | 1.3 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 3.9% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 8 | 200 | 842 | 182 | 65 | 33 | 5% | 1.3 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 3.9% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 284 | 76 | 647 | 2689 | 594 | 206 | 94 | 27% | 2.3 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 3.72 | 4.13 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 24 | 200 | 832 | 184 | 64 | 29 | 27% | 2.3 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 3.72 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eli Morgan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 2.6% | — | 5.13 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 155 | +0.77 | — | — | — |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 71 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 70 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 69 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 68 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 68 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 68 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 68 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 68 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 67 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 67 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 66 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.53 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.02 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +1.49 | 3.53 | 135 | 66 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 66 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 66 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 66 |
| Jason Urquidez R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.50 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.0% | .386 | 1.76 | 25.5% | 20.7% | 90 | -1.74 | 1.25 | 123 | 66 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 66 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 66 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 66 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 1.28 | 4.68 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |