Eli Morgan
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 30
RHP
5'10" / 190 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA3.83
FIP4.21
xFIP4.86
SIERA4.62
K%22.1%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%12.7%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL5555
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p4724.9%
K%
p3820.4%
xwOBA vs
p900.254
CH+1.0 (35%)
SL-0.5 (27%)
FB-0.9 (38%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 27 | 27 | 143 | 587 | 156 | 34 | 13 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 3.27 | 3.79 | +2.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 26 | 25 | 141 | 576 | 146 | 39 | 15 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 3.39 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 23 | 23 | 112 | 471 | 102 | 33 | 21 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.08 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 50 | 1 | 67 | 256 | 72 | 13 | 10 | 28.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.37 | 3.79 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 61 | 0 | 67 | 299 | 75 | 23 | 9 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 3.60 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 46 | 0 | 59 | 237 | 50 | 18 | 5 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 2.15 | 3.47 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 19 | 0 | 21 | 96 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 18.6% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 6.86 | 3.83 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 5 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.96 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | KC | 10 | — | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | KC | — | — | 19 | 78 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 27.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 2.39 | 2.24 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | KC | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | KC | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | KC | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 29 | 15 | 4 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | KC | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | KC | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 17.4% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 257 | 76 | 619 | 2558 | 563 | 190 | 84 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 3.70 | 3.98 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 25 | 200 | 827 | 182 | 61 | 27 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 3.70 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eli Morgan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.56 | 20.3% | 10.6% | 111 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 75 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 74 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 74 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.98 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.10 | 256 | 73 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.21 | 1.72 | 402 | 73 |
| Greg Holland R 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 73 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 72 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 72 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 71 |
| Bryan Morris R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 71 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 71 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 71 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 71 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 71 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.