Eli Morgan

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 31 RHP 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	46	59	2.15	3.42	21.1%	7.6%	0.8	K 20.2% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.49
2025	29	MIX4 levels	19	21	6.86	4.81	18.8%	11.5%	-0.1	K 18.2% · BB 15.6% · FIP 3.54
2026	30	MIX2 levels	47	56	3.21	4.17	24.8%	12.4%	0.3	K 22.2% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	31	MLBKC	135	142	4.35	4.75	20.3%	10.8%	-0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBKC	92	97	4.74	5.01	19.5%	11.2%	-0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBKC	72	76	5.07	5.29	18.6%	11.6%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%18

FB Velo10

xwOBA vs10

CompsDustin Molleken (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Scott Atchison (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.35

FIP4.75

K%20.3%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.399

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	143	587	156	34	13	100%	5.3	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	2.8%	3.27	3.80	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	143	587	156	34	13	100%	5.3	26.6%	5.8%	20.8%	2.2%	3.27	2.81	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	141	576	146	39	15	96%	5.4	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	3.8%	3.39	4.37	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	141	576	146	39	15	96%	5.4	25.3%	6.8%	18.6%	2.6%	3.39	3.24	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	112	471	102	33	21	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	4.5%	5.08	4.68	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	112	471	102	33	21	100%	4.9	21.7%	7.0%	14.6%	4.5%	5.08	4.60	+1.0
2022	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	50	1	67	256	72	13	10	2%	1.3	28.1%	5.1%	23.0%	3.9%	3.37	3.52	+0.8
2022	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	50	1	67	256	72	13	10	2%	1.3	28.1%	5.1%	23.0%	3.9%	3.37	3.48	+0.9
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	61	0	67	299	75	23	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.01	3.61	+0.7
2023	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	61	0	67	299	75	23	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.01	3.63	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	59	237	50	18	5	0%	1.3	20.2%	7.3%	12.9%	2.1%	2.15	3.49	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	59	237	50	18	5	0%	1.3	20.2%	7.3%	12.9%	2.1%	2.15	3.49	+0.7
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	59	237	50	18	5	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	2.1%	2.15	3.42	+0.8
2025	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	0	21	96	18	11	3	0%	1.1	18.2%	15.6%	2.6%	0.0%	6.86	3.54	+0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	0	21	96	18	11	3	0%	1.1	18.2%	15.6%	2.6%	0.0%	6.86	3.54	+0.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	0	21	96	18	11	3	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.5%	7.3%	3.1%	6.86	4.81	-0.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	250	62	31	7	0%	1.2	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	3.0%	3.21	4.35	+0.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	250	62	31	7	0%	1.2	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	3.0%	3.21	4.35	+0.1
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	56	250	62	31	7	0%	1.2	24.8%	12.4%	12.4%	2.8%	3.21	4.17	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			184	19	292	1227	282	79	51	10%	1.6	23.0%	6.4%	16.5%	4.2%	4.25	4.25	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	KC	135	0	142	600	122	64	18	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.8%	9.6%	3.0%	4.35	4.75	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	97	0	102	432	84	48	14	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.2%	8.3%	3.2%	4.74	5.01	-0.5
2029	33	MLB MLE	KC	76	0	80	339	63	39	12	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	3.5%	5.07	5.29	-0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	92	0	97	410	80	46	13	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.2%	8.3%	3.2%	4.74	5.01	-0.5
2029	33	MLB CTX	KC	72	0	76	321	60	37	11	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	3.5%	5.07	5.29	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		349	19	465	1959	422	162	75	5%	1.3	21.5%	8.3%	13.3%	3.8%	4.49	4.44	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		150	8	200	842	181	70	32	5%	1.3	21.5%	8.3%	13.3%	3.8%	4.49	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		299	76	665	2772	605	212	91	25%	2.2	21.8%	7.7%	14.2%	3.3%	3.69	4.04	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	23	200	833	182	64	27	25%	2.2	21.8%	7.7%	14.2%	3.3%	3.69	4.04	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 37 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.34 (+0.24)K% 28.9% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.93%	—	×0.860	24.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.84%	—	×0.900	12.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.38%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 11 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.54 (+0.03)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.860	18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.31%	—	×0.900	15.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.125	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 17 IPFIP 3.40 → 3.56 (+0.15)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.860	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×0.900	10.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.060	×1.100	1.48%

Result: FIP 3.40 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAColumbus Clippers · 22 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.63 (+0.35)K% 22.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.83%	—	×0.880	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.96%	—	×1.050	12.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷1.034	×1.100	1.16%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAkron RubberDucks · 102 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.60 (+1.07)K% 24.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.810	19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.100	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.863	×1.200	3.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 34 IPFIP 2.20 → 3.55 (+1.35)K% 32.8% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.79%	—	×0.770	25.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.10%	—	×1.150	4.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷0.850	×1.250	3.61%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 5 IPFIP 3.48 → 3.63 (+0.15)K% 9.1% → 8.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.09%	—	×0.880	8.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.050	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.985	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 99 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.32 (+1.01)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.98%	—	×0.770	18.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.24%	—	×1.150	7.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷0.967	×1.250	3.41%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Morgan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	20.3%	10.8%	3.0%	—	5.13	19.1%	7.8%	182	+0.38	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	74
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	73
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	73
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	71
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	71
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	70
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	70
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	69
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	69
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	69
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	68
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	68
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	68
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	68
Al Reyes R 2001 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	19.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.305	3.40	21.8%	11.1%	34	-0.72	2.60	411	68
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	67
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	66
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	66
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	88	21.2%	9.0%	1.40	4.46
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Keith Atherton ('83-'89, 2 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.9%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.24*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86