Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 10 | 106 | 461 | 108 | 20 | 15 | 38% | 4.1 | 18.1% | 4.9% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 4.85 | 4.59 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 10 | 106 | 461 | 108 | 20 | 15 | 38% | 4.1 | 23.4% | 4.3% | 19.1% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 3.47 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 31 | 1 | 60 | 255 | 84 | 21 | 9 | 3% | 1.9 | 26.7% | 9.1% | 17.6% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 3.84 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 31 | 1 | 60 | 255 | 84 | 21 | 9 | 3% | 1.9 | 32.9% | 8.2% | 24.7% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 3.30 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 1 | 30 | 139 | 34 | 12 | 12 | 5% | 1.6 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.30 | 7.84 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 1 | 30 | 139 | 34 | 12 | 12 | 5% | 1.6 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 8.6% | 6.30 | 7.23 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 8 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.5% | 2.6% | 36.8% | 2.6% | 2.70 | 1.54 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 8 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.5% | 2.6% | 36.8% | 2.6% | 2.70 | 1.70 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 48 | 2 | 54 | 262 | 56 | 23 | 10 | 4% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 7.33 | 5.03 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 48 | 2 | 54 | 262 | 56 | 23 | 10 | 4% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 7.33 | 4.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 27 | 12 | 62 | 282 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 44% | 2.3 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 7.74 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ATL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 54 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 131 | 575 | 116 | 55 | 18 | — | — | 20.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 6.34 | 4.96 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 52 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 49 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.17 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 45 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 25 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.17 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 72 | 40 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 4.92 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 87 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 159 | 26 | 322 | 1437 | 293 | 115 | 63 | 16% | 2.0 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 4.4% | 5.90 | 4.81 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 99 | 16 | 200 | 893 | 182 | 72 | 39 | 16% | 2.0 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 4.4% | 5.90 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Dashwood (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | — | 5.27 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 186 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 80 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 80 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 79 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 78 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 75 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 75 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.70 | 2.22 | 286 | 75 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 74 |
| Michael Johnson L 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.99 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 256 | 74 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 74 |
| Will Lamb L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 74 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 74 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 4.73 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.31 | 3.33 | 228 | 72 |
| Carson Teel L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.22 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 248 | 72 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.56 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 491 | 72 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 72 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.88 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 4.4% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 160 | 71 |
| Wei-Chung Wang L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.76 | 16.0% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 387 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 64 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 1.44 | 5.16 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |