Ryan Miller

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	47	1	75	2.75	3.54	23.5%	6.5%	0.9	K 20.7% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.03
2025	29	AAADET	37	0	50	4.32	4.32	22.0%	7.5%	—	K 18.9% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.13
2026	30	AAACOL	47	7	62	7.84	5.28	15.3%	12.1%	—	K 13.2% · BB 10.9% · FIP 5.11
2027PROJ	31	MLBCOL	60	0	63	4.81	5.19	15.0%	9.2%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBCOL	20	0	21	5.10	5.36	15.1%	9.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBCOL	28	0	29	5.34	5.56	14.8%	10.1%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo37

xwOBA vs37

K%28

Whiff%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAngel Castro (age 32) · Luis Angel Daniel (age 31) · Tyler Sturdevant (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA4.81

FIP5.19

K%15.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1019.6%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

FB+0.9 (42%)

SI (42%)

SL-1.6 (58%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	27	0	55	238	36	17	7	0%	2.0	11.2%	8.4%	2.8%	4.4%	3.62	5.62	—
2019	23	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	27	0	55	238	36	17	7	0%	2.0	15.1%	7.1%	8.0%	2.9%	3.62	4.38	—
2022	26	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	25	0	36	151	50	18	7	0%	1.4	25.5%	13.7%	11.8%	5.7%	5.75	5.82	—
2022	26	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	25	0	36	151	50	18	7	0%	1.4	33.1%	11.9%	21.2%	4.6%	5.75	4.35	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	41	1	60	260	67	19	8	2%	1.5	20.9%	8.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.03	4.29	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	41	1	60	260	67	19	8	2%	1.5	25.8%	7.3%	18.5%	3.1%	4.03	3.55	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	75	306	72	20	9	2%	1.6	20.7%	6.1%	14.7%	3.5%	2.75	4.03	+0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	75	306	72	20	9	2%	1.6	20.7%	6.1%	14.7%	3.5%	2.75	4.03	+0.5
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	75	306	72	20	9	2%	1.6	23.5%	6.5%	17.0%	2.9%	2.75	3.54	+0.9
2025	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	37	0	50	200	44	15	8	0%	1.4	18.9%	6.8%	12.2%	5.0%	4.32	5.13	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	37	0	50	200	44	15	8	0%	1.4	18.9%	6.8%	12.2%	5.0%	4.32	5.13	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	37	0	50	200	44	15	8	0%	1.4	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	4.0%	4.32	4.32	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	47	7	62	313	48	38	9	15%	1.3	13.2%	10.9%	2.3%	3.2%	7.84	5.11	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	47	7	62	313	48	38	9	15%	1.3	13.2%	10.9%	2.3%	3.2%	7.84	5.11	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	47	7	62	313	48	38	9	15%	1.3	15.3%	12.1%	3.2%	2.9%	7.84	5.28	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	0	13	58	11	6	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	10.3%	8.6%	3.4%	4.15	4.79	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	COL	60	0	63	266	40	25	9	0%	1.1	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	3.3%	4.81	5.19	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	COL	56	0	58	246	37	24	9	0%	1.0	15.1%	9.6%	5.4%	3.5%	5.10	5.36	-0.5
2029	33	MLB MLE	COL	51	0	54	226	34	23	8	0%	1.0	14.8%	10.1%	4.8%	3.8%	5.34	5.56	-0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	COL	20	0	21	89	13	9	3	0%	1.1	15.1%	9.6%	5.4%	3.5%	5.10	5.36	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	COL	28	0	29	122	18	12	5	0%	1.0	14.8%	10.1%	4.8%	3.8%	5.34	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	0	64	273	43	27	10	0%	1.0	15.8%	10.0%	5.8%	3.6%	5.02	5.01	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	854	135	84	31	0%	1.0	15.8%	10.0%	5.8%	3.6%	5.02	5.01	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		224	9	338	1468	262	128	59	4%	1.5	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	4.0%	4.60	4.90	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	5	200	868	155	76	35	4%	1.5	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	4.0%	4.60	4.90	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	15.0%	9.2%	3.3%	—	5.46	15.0%	5.1%	112	+0.27	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	89
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	87
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	85
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	83
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	81
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	81
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	81
Fernando Villalobos R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	12.3%	8.6%	1.6%	.305	4.70	10.6%	2.6%	55	+0.70	4.00	152	80
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	79
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	79
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Rodney Myers R 2001 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	13.7%	9.5%	2.8%	.301	3.98	10.9%	1.0%	21	-0.72	3.98	218	78
Jeff Gray R 2012 · 5.43 FIP	30	SU	5.43	11.0%	9.3%	3.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	127	78
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	78
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	9.8%	9.5%	1.6%	.307	3.52	13.2%	7.9%	80	-0.85	2.23	173	77
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	76
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	75
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	75
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	15.3%	9.9%	1.36	5.01
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*