Braden Bristo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Braden Bristo P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%22.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

CT+1.0

FB+0.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	10	0	15	71	17	6	1	0%	1.5	16.3%	10.6%	5.7%	2.0%	6.00	4.15	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	10	0	15	71	17	6	1	0%	1.5	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	1.4%	6.00	2.90	—
2017	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	11	52	10	7	1	0%	1.9	14.2%	15.9%	-1.7%	2.6%	3.97	5.36	—
2017	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	11	52	10	7	1	0%	1.9	19.2%	13.5%	5.8%	1.9%	3.97	4.34	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	55	233	63	24	3	0%	1.6	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	1.8%	2.14	3.93	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	55	233	63	24	3	0%	1.6	27.0%	10.3%	16.7%	1.3%	2.14	2.83	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	66	263	84	20	5	0%	1.7	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	2.4%	2.60	3.41	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	66	263	84	20	5	0%	1.7	31.9%	7.6%	24.3%	1.9%	2.60	2.45	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	38	1	50	218	61	29	7	3%	1.3	24.6%	14.0%	10.7%	3.1%	4.86	4.48	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	38	1	50	218	61	29	7	3%	1.3	28.0%	13.3%	14.7%	3.2%	4.86	4.22	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	41	1	53	243	64	30	6	2%	1.3	23.2%	13.0%	10.2%	2.7%	4.56	4.27	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	41	1	53	243	64	30	6	2%	1.3	26.3%	12.3%	14.0%	2.5%	4.56	3.85	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	57	272	68	36	14	2%	1.2	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	7.1%	7.06	6.64	-1.4
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	57	272	68	36	14	2%	1.2	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	7.1%	7.06	6.64	-1.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	57	272	68	36	14	2%	1.2	25.0%	13.2%	11.8%	5.1%	7.06	5.79	-0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	7	30	5	3	0	0%	2.3	16.7%	10.0%	6.7%	0.0%	2.57	2.96	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	10.6%	12.2%	3.3%	4.71	4.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	DET	29	0	30	128	29	14	5	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	3.5%	4.80	4.89	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	DET	10	0	11	46	10	5	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	3.5%	4.80	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	18	77	16	8	2	0%	1.3	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	2.2%	3.94	3.91	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		150	0	200	849	176	88	22	0%	1.3	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	2.2%	3.94	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		215	3	307	1352	302	162	46	1%	1.4	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.4%	4.28	4.59	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	2	200	880	197	105	30	1%	1.4	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.4%	4.28	4.59	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Bristo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	22.9%	10.6%	3.3%	—	4.89	22.5%	11.6%	30	+0.18	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	79
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	78
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	78
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	76
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	75
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	75
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	75
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	74
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	74
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	73
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	73
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	73
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	22.1%	11.0%	1.19	4.54
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16