Gregory Santos

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 236 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	16	0	15	3.07	2.83	22.6%	12.9%	0.3	K 22.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 2.83
2025	25	MIX2 levels	14	0	12	5.25	6.02	8.1%	24.2%	-0.2	K 8.1% · BB 24.2% · FIP 5.48
2026	26	MIX3 levels	19	3	24	5.70	4.37	12.6%	13.5%	0.1	K 12.3% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.48
2027PROJ	27	MLBSF	57	0	60	4.92	4.64	18.9%	10.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSF	24	0	25	4.77	4.69	19.2%	10.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBSF	31	0	33	4.79	4.83	19.0%	10.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff61Control59Command56FB velo63

CompsJoe Colón J (age 27) · Austin Adams (age 28) · Luis Mateo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.92

FIP4.64

K%18.9%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

SI (22%)

SL (61%)

FB-1.6 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	16	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	16	10	41	188	25	26	1	62%	2.6	9.0%	17.3%	-8.2%	0.7%	4.17	4.93	—
2016	16	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	16	10	41	188	25	26	1	62%	2.6	13.3%	13.8%	-0.5%	0.5%	4.17	4.10	—
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	12	12	49	206	41	20	2	100%	4.1	13.5%	12.1%	1.4%	1.4%	1.29	4.24	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	12	12	49	206	41	20	2	100%	4.1	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	1.0%	1.29	3.18	—
2019	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	8	8	35	143	26	9	4	100%	4.3	13.5%	7.4%	6.0%	3.4%	2.86	4.75	—
2019	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	8	8	35	143	26	9	4	100%	4.3	18.2%	6.3%	11.9%	2.8%	2.86	3.88	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	18	86	18	11	4	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.9%	5.1%	1.5%	7.13	4.04	+0.1
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	18	86	18	11	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	4.7%	7.13	5.87	-0.3
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	2	39	173	39	23	4	5%	1.0	20.2%	14.2%	6.0%	3.0%	4.66	4.84	-0.1
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	2	39	173	39	23	4	5%	1.0	22.5%	13.3%	9.2%	2.3%	4.66	4.21	+0.2
2023	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	60	0	66	289	66	16	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	0.7%	3.39	2.25	+1.8
2023	23	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	60	0	66	289	66	16	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	0.7%	3.39	2.23	+1.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	15	62	14	8	0	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	0.0%	3.07	2.83	+0.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	15	62	14	8	0	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	0.0%	3.07	2.83	+0.3
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	15	62	14	8	0	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	0.0%	3.07	2.83	+0.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	12	62	5	15	0	0%	0.9	8.1%	24.2%	-16.1%	0.0%	5.25	5.48	-0.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	12	62	5	15	0	0%	0.9	8.1%	24.2%	-16.1%	0.0%	5.25	5.48	-0.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	12	62	5	15	0	0%	0.9	8.1%	24.2%	-16.1%	0.0%	5.25	6.02	-0.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	3	24	111	14	15	1	16%	1.2	12.3%	12.9%	-0.6%	1.4%	5.70	4.48	+0.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	3	24	111	14	15	1	16%	1.2	12.3%	12.9%	-0.6%	1.4%	5.70	4.48	+0.0
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	3	24	111	14	15	1	16%	1.2	12.6%	13.5%	-0.9%	0.9%	5.70	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	0	91	408	78	31	5	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	1.2%	4.14	3.12	+1.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SF	57	0	60	253	48	27	6	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	2.6%	4.92	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	55	0	58	244	47	26	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.7%	8.5%	2.7%	4.77	4.69	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	52	0	55	233	44	25	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.8%	8.1%	2.9%	4.79	4.83	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	20	11	3	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.7%	8.5%	2.7%	4.77	4.69	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	31	0	33	139	26	15	4	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.8%	8.1%	2.9%	4.79	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	0	148	649	124	57	12	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	1.8%	4.39	3.59	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	875	167	77	16	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	1.8%	4.39	3.59	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		199	35	298	1320	213	157	19	18%	1.5	16.2%	11.9%	4.3%	1.4%	3.72	4.04	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	24	200	887	143	106	13	18%	1.5	16.2%	11.9%	4.3%	1.4%	3.72	4.04	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gregory Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	18.9%	10.7%	2.6%	—	4.76	19.1%	8.3%	113	+0.12	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	76
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	76
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	76
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	76
Ty Adcock R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SU	3.76	20.8%	8.9%	2.4%	.405	4.85	20.4%	11.6%	66	+1.09	3.76	122	76
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	76
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	75
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	75
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	75
Ross Wolf R 2010 · 3.95 FIP	27	SU	3.95	16.1%	8.9%	2.0%	.268	4.37	10.1%	3.3%	48	+0.42	3.43	179	75
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	75
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	75
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	74
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	74
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	74
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	19.1%	9.9%	0.84	4.59
Jake Petricka ('21)	1.2	59	17.4%	9.9%	0.72	4.24
Billy Taylor ('01)	1.6	65	21.7%	9.4%	0.75	4.21
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Barry Jones ('86-'93, 1 WAR*)	2.2	62	17.4%*	10.4%*	0.96*	4.17*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*