Alex Speas

P St. Paul Saints

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX3 levels	52	1	59	3.22	2.66	34.6%	16.3%	1.3	K 28.9% · BB 15.0% · FIP 3.04
2024	26	MIX2 levels	33	0	32	11.65	6.76	27.2%	25.4%	-0.8	K 23.5% · BB 23.5% · FIP 5.93
2025	27	AAAMIN	15	0	17	11.12	5.04	20.4%	20.4%	—	K 17.6% · BB 18.4% · FIP 4.44
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIN	11	0	12	5.30	5.30	20.9%	16.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBMIN	7	0	7	5.31	5.38	20.8%	15.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Thad Weber (age 28) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%20.9%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

FB+0.7 (21%)

SL (5%)

CT-1.3 (74%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	3	8	37	11	7	0	75%	2.1	29.7%	18.9%	10.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.99	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	3	8	37	11	7	0	75%	2.1	29.7%	18.9%	10.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.98	—
2018	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	20	0	29	124	49	21	1	0%	1.4	29.2%	20.0%	9.3%	0.9%	2.20	3.64	—
2018	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	20	0	29	124	49	21	1	0%	1.4	39.5%	16.9%	22.6%	0.8%	2.20	2.33	—
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	2	2	1	6	2	2	0	100%	0.5	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	2	2	1	6	2	2	0	100%	0.5	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	5.10	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	15	86	30	26	2	7%	1.0	27.0%	33.5%	-6.5%	3.1%	11.15	6.77	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	15	86	30	26	2	7%	1.0	34.9%	30.2%	4.7%	2.3%	11.15	5.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	59	257	89	42	2	2%	1.1	28.9%	15.0%	13.9%	0.9%	3.22	3.04	+1.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	59	257	89	42	2	2%	1.1	34.6%	16.3%	18.3%	0.8%	3.22	2.66	+1.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	32	173	47	44	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	23.5%	-0.0%	3.3%	11.65	5.93	-0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	32	173	47	44	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	23.5%	-0.0%	3.3%	11.65	5.93	-0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	32	173	47	44	6	0%	1.0	27.2%	25.4%	1.7%	3.5%	11.65	6.76	-0.8
2025	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	15	0	17	98	20	20	1	0%	1.1	17.6%	18.4%	-0.8%	0.9%	11.12	4.44	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	15	0	17	98	20	20	1	0%	1.1	17.6%	18.4%	-0.8%	0.9%	11.12	4.44	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	15	0	17	98	20	20	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	20.4%	0.0%	1.0%	11.12	5.04	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	4	20	6	5	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	25.0%	5.0%	5.0%	9.00	7.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIN	11	0	12	51	11	8	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.0%	4.9%	2.8%	5.30	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	84	18	13	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	15.6%	5.2%	3.1%	5.31	5.38	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIN	7	0	7	30	6	5	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	15.6%	5.2%	3.1%	5.31	5.38	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	51	12	10	2	0%	1.0	24.4%	19.3%	5.1%	3.8%	6.61	5.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	899	211	176	35	0%	1.0	24.4%	19.3%	5.1%	3.8%	6.61	5.58	-2.4
Career	—	MLE		141	7	161	781	204	160	13	5%	1.1	26.2%	20.5%	5.7%	1.6%	6.11	4.37	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	9	200	972	255	199	16	5%	1.1	26.2%	20.5%	5.7%	1.6%	6.11	4.37	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Speas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	20.9%	16.0%	2.8%	—	5.38	20.8%	5.2%	20	+0.08	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	78
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	76
Edwar Ramirez R 2010 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	18.5%	16.7%	2.0%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	109	75
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	74
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	73
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	73
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	72
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	72
Scott Dohmann R 2007 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	19.1%	12.5%	2.2%	.289	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	15	+0.10	4.28	173	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	72
Kane Davis R 2005 · 5.15 FIP	30	SU	5.15	15.7%	14.3%	2.9%	.170	4.82	16.9%	6.7%	11	-0.33	3.40	125	72
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	72
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	71
Jordan Jankowski R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	21.8%	16.9%	2.5%	.396	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	196	71
Irving Jimenez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	27	SU	4.51	18.9%	12.4%	2.6%	.417	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	104	71
Mark Thompson R 2000 · 5.25 FIP	29	SU	5.25	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	328	70
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	70
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	69