Matt Manning

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	18	18	87	3.22	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	0.5	K 15.8% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.60
2024	26	MIX2 levels	20	19	97	4.45	4.03	23.1%	9.0%	1.0	K 20.6% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.69
2025	27	MIX2 levels	33	6	56	6.47	4.90	23.3%	16.7%	—	K 19.3% · BB 14.0% · FIP 5.33
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	26	26	154	4.69	5.00	20.3%	11.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBDET	9	9	53	5.00	5.20	19.6%	11.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBDET	12	12	74	5.26	5.43	18.8%	11.8%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo40

Whiff%38

xwOBA vs32

K%26

CompsNate Long (age 29) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 30) · Tim Adleman (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.69

FIP5.00

K%20.3%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL5050

CMD4555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

SL+2.1 (38%)

CU (10%)

FB-2.9 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	10	10	29	122	46	7	2	100%	2.9	25.6%	7.2%	18.5%	2.3%	3.99	3.10	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	10	10	29	122	46	7	2	100%	2.9	37.7%	5.7%	32.0%	1.6%	3.99	1.57	—
2017	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	5	5	18	79	26	11	0	100%	3.5	24.4%	16.4%	7.9%	0.0%	5.60	3.12	—
2017	19	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	5	5	18	79	26	11	0	100%	3.5	32.9%	13.9%	19.0%	0.0%	5.60	2.02	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	118	488	154	51	7	100%	5.3	24.0%	12.4%	11.6%	1.8%	3.29	3.64	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	118	488	154	51	7	100%	5.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	1.4%	3.29	2.56	—
2019	21	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	24	24	134	527	148	37	7	100%	5.6	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	1.2%	2.56	2.83	—
2019	21	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	24	24	134	527	148	37	7	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.0%	21.1%	1.3%	2.56	2.40	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	118	529	93	43	21	100%	4.7	16.8%	8.2%	8.5%	4.1%	6.42	5.00	-0.1
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	118	529	93	43	21	100%	4.7	17.6%	8.1%	9.5%	4.0%	6.42	4.94	-0.0
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	85	357	71	30	6	100%	4.5	19.5%	8.4%	11.1%	1.8%	3.16	3.50	+1.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	85	357	71	30	6	100%	4.5	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	1.7%	3.16	3.40	+1.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	355	59	29	11	100%	4.8	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	3.6%	3.22	4.60	+0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	87	355	59	29	11	100%	4.8	16.6%	8.2%	8.5%	3.1%	3.22	4.39	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	97	412	95	37	13	95%	4.8	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	4.1%	4.45	4.69	+0.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	97	412	95	37	13	95%	4.8	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	4.1%	4.45	4.69	+0.2
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	97	412	95	37	13	95%	4.8	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.2%	4.45	4.03	+1.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	56	257	60	43	7	18%	1.7	19.3%	14.0%	5.3%	3.8%	6.47	5.33	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	56	257	60	43	7	18%	1.7	19.3%	14.0%	5.3%	3.8%	6.47	5.33	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	6	56	257	60	43	7	18%	1.7	23.3%	16.7%	6.6%	2.7%	6.47	4.90	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			50	50	254	1087	178	85	30	100%	5.1	16.4%	7.8%	8.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.24	+2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	26	26	154	650	132	73	21	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	3.3%	4.69	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	144	610	119	70	21	100%	6.0	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.5%	5.00	5.20	-0.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	135	569	107	67	21	100%	6.1	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	3.7%	5.26	5.43	-0.8
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	53	224	44	26	8	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.5%	5.00	5.20	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	74	312	59	37	12	100%	6.2	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	3.7%	5.26	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	71	381	1625	281	148	50	100%	5.4	17.3%	9.1%	8.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.47	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	852	147	78	26	100%	5.4	17.3%	9.1%	8.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		176	148	741	3126	637	291	86	84%	4.2	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.11	4.07	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	844	172	78	23	84%	4.2	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.11	4.07	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Manning (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	20.3%	11.2%	3.3%	—	5.31	19.2%	7.5%	279	+0.31	—	—	—
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	74
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	74
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	73
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	73
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	72
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	71
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	71
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	70
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	70
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	69
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	69
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	68
Caleb Boushley R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	29	SP	4.79	16.3%	7.9%	3.8%	.294	4.15	17.0%	11.5%	211	-0.64	3.05	790	68
Seth Frankoff R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	28	SP	5.03	21.2%	10.0%	4.5%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	263	67
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	67
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	66
Forrest Snow R 2018 · 5.14 FIP	29	SP-	5.14	19.6%	7.7%	5.0%	.282	5.53	18.8%	10.3%	28	+0.39	3.02	406	66
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	66
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	98	18.4%	10.1%	1.25	4.77
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
George Chalmers ('10-'16, 2 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.2%*	10.7%*	1.14*	4.59*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Les Tietje ('33-'38, 3 WAR*)	2.6	85	19.0%*	10.6%*	1.45*	4.56*
Eddie Stack ('10-'14, 2 WAR*)	2.5	123	19.1%*	9.2%*	1.24*	4.60*
Tony Armas ('08)	4.6	116	16.8%	10.6%	1.19	4.65