Antonio Santos

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AA

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	29	0	42	5.74	4.56	22.2%	9.8%	—	K 18.2% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.33
2024	27	AATennessee Smo…	14	13	70	3.99	3.56	28.2%	8.8%	—	K 22.8% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.84
2025	28	MIX2 levels	25	19	94	3.46	3.60	21.8%	11.9%	—	K 18.0% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	30	MLBCHC	11	11	68	5.02	5.02	18.4%	12.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBCHC	3	3	20	5.07	5.16	18.6%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	32	MLBCHC	5	5	30	5.19	5.32	18.5%	12.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control54Command40FB velo55

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Fabio Castillo (age 28) · Jared Fernandez (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%18.4%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4545

CH+0.7

FB-0.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	6	5	24	99	17	5	0	83%	4.0	11.7%	6.3%	5.4%	0.0%	0.75	2.91	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	6	5	24	99	17	5	0	83%	4.0	17.2%	5.1%	12.1%	0.0%	0.75	2.31	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	2	2	10	36	7	0	0	100%	5.0	19.4%	0.0%	19.4%	0.0%	1.80	1.46	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	2	2	10	36	7	0	0	100%	5.0	19.4%	0.0%	19.4%	0.0%	1.80	1.70	—
2017	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	27	27	147	650	106	26	17	100%	5.4	12.1%	4.7%	7.3%	2.7%	5.39	4.18	—
2017	20	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	27	27	147	650	106	26	17	100%	5.4	16.3%	4.0%	12.3%	2.6%	5.39	3.69	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	152	659	142	33	23	100%	5.6	16.2%	5.8%	10.4%	3.3%	4.80	4.27	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	152	659	142	33	23	100%	5.6	21.5%	5.0%	16.5%	3.5%	4.80	3.85	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	145	622	140	28	14	100%	5.6	17.6%	5.1%	12.5%	2.2%	4.53	3.47	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	145	622	140	28	14	100%	5.6	22.5%	4.5%	18.0%	2.3%	4.53	3.00	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	3	1	6	35	4	4	1	33%	2.0	11.4%	11.4%	0.0%	2.9%	16.50	5.15	-0.0
2020	23	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	3	1	6	35	4	4	1	33%	2.0	11.4%	11.4%	0.0%	2.9%	16.50	5.93	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	57	258	42	32	11	5%	1.4	13.3%	13.4%	-0.1%	4.4%	7.31	6.10	-1.0
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	2	57	258	42	32	11	5%	1.4	16.3%	12.4%	3.9%	4.3%	7.31	5.84	-0.8
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	42	194	43	19	7	0%	1.5	18.2%	10.6%	7.6%	4.4%	5.74	5.33	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	42	194	43	19	7	0%	1.5	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.6%	5.74	4.56	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	14	13	70	284	80	25	9	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	4.5%	3.99	4.84	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	14	13	70	284	80	25	9	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	4.5%	3.99	4.84	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	14	13	70	284	80	25	9	93%	5.0	28.2%	8.8%	19.4%	3.2%	3.99	3.56	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	94	394	86	47	6	76%	3.7	18.0%	12.4%	5.6%	1.6%	3.46	4.01	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	94	394	86	47	6	76%	3.7	18.0%	12.4%	5.6%	1.6%	3.46	4.01	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	94	394	86	47	6	76%	3.7	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	1.5%	3.46	3.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	1	17	81	14	9	2	10%	1.7	17.3%	11.1%	6.2%	2.5%	8.83	4.54	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CHC	11	11	68	287	53	35	8	100%	6.2	18.4%	12.1%	6.3%	2.9%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	63	267	50	33	8	100%	6.3	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	3.1%	5.07	5.16	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	59	247	46	31	8	100%	5.9	18.5%	12.4%	6.1%	3.3%	5.19	5.32	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	20	84	16	10	3	100%	6.7	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	3.1%	5.07	5.16	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	30	127	23	16	4	100%	6.0	18.5%	12.4%	6.1%	3.3%	5.19	5.32	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	9	67	292	53	35	9	50%	3.7	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	3.0%	6.09	4.74	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	27	200	868	158	104	27	50%	3.7	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	3.0%	6.09	4.74	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		200	122	747	3231	523	242	93	61%	3.7	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.79	4.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	33	200	865	140	65	25	61%	3.7	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.79	4.26	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antonio Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	18.4%	12.1%	2.9%	—	5.24	18.5%	6.2%	122	+0.22	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	80
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	74
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	73
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	71
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	71
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	70
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	70
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	69
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	69
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	68
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	67
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	67
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	67
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	67
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	66
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	65
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	65
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	18.4%	12.1%	1.17	5.40
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*