Chance Adams
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142132vR 123
ERA5.42
FIP5.46
K%12.4%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%1.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p1018.1%
K%
p2518.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.380
CH-0.8
FB-1.4
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 26 | 105 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2.6 | 21.6% | 4.0% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 2.10 | 1.79 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 26 | 105 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2.6 | 30.5% | 5.7% | 24.8% | 0.0% | 2.10 | 1.31 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 127 | 495 | 144 | 39 | 9 | 96% | 5.1 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 2.33 | 3.69 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 127 | 495 | 144 | 39 | 9 | 96% | 5.1 | 29.1% | 7.9% | 21.2% | 1.8% | 2.33 | 2.68 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 150 | 605 | 135 | 58 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 1.5% | 2.45 | 3.60 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 150 | 605 | 135 | 58 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 1.8% | 2.45 | 3.41 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 24 | 121 | 528 | 117 | 60 | 19 | 80% | 4.0 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.70 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 24 | 121 | 528 | 117 | 60 | 19 | 80% | 4.0 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 4.70 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 15 | 107 | 487 | 103 | 49 | 18 | 48% | 3.5 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 5.55 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 15 | 107 | 487 | 103 | 49 | 18 | 48% | 3.5 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 5.55 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 6 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 9.35 | 3.21 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 6 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 9.35 | 3.22 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 50% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 13.3% | 8.53 | 9.15 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 50% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 13.3% | 8.53 | 9.89 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 31 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 4.47 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 31 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 46 | 3 | 57 | 268 | 43 | 28 | 4 | 7% | 1.2 | 14.1% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 6.44 | 4.05 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 46 | 3 | 57 | 268 | 43 | 28 | 4 | 7% | 1.2 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 6.44 | 3.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | COL | 62 | 0 | 65 | 275 | 34 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.4% | 11.1% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.42 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | COL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 32 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.7% | 11.3% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 5.48 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | COL | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 29 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 11.6% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 5.62 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | COL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 11.3% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 5.48 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | COL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 11.6% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 5.62 | 5.78 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 1 | 94 | 420 | 61 | 41 | 18 | 1% | 1.3 | 14.6% | 9.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.83 | 5.50 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 2 | 200 | 891 | 129 | 87 | 38 | 1% | 1.3 | 14.6% | 9.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.83 | 5.50 | -0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 212 | 96 | 636 | 2698 | 524 | 266 | 69 | 45% | 3.0 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 4.11 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 30 | 200 | 848 | 165 | 84 | 22 | 45% | 3.0 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chance Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.46 | 12.4% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 5.69 | 12.7% | 1.2% | 115 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.33 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 254 | 75 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 73 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 73 |
| Paul Clemens R 2024 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 72 |
| Murphy Smith R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 72 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 71 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 71 |
| Jose A. Flores R 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 237 | 71 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.28 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.78 | 7.1% | -0.6% | 83 | -0.50 | 4.78 | 115 | 70 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 70 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 70 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 69 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.40 | 11.5% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .321 | 3.51 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 142 | -0.89 | 3.51 | 269 | 69 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 68 |
| David Holman R 2024 · 5.57 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.57 | 8.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 129 | 68 |
| Luis Mateo R 2024 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 68 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 67 |
| Seth Simmons R 2025 · 6.19 FIP | 30 | SW | 6.19 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 5.1% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 251 | 67 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.98 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 78 | +0.02 | 2.86 | 306 | 66 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.23 | 5.50 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |