Chance Adams — OGILVIE

Chance Adams P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.34

FIP5.37

K%11.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p1018.1%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.380

CH-0.8

FB-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	26	105	32	6	0	0%	2.6	21.6%	4.0%	17.6%	0.0%	2.10	1.79	—
2015	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	26	105	32	6	0	0%	2.6	30.5%	5.7%	24.8%	0.0%	2.10	1.31	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	127	495	144	39	9	96%	5.1	23.0%	8.8%	14.2%	2.4%	2.33	3.58	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	127	495	144	39	9	96%	5.1	29.1%	7.9%	21.2%	1.8%	2.33	2.68	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	150	605	135	58	11	100%	5.6	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	1.7%	2.45	3.71	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	150	605	135	58	11	100%	5.6	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	1.8%	2.45	3.41	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	121	528	117	60	19	80%	4.0	20.1%	11.9%	8.2%	3.4%	4.92	4.78	+0.2
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	24	121	528	117	60	19	80%	4.0	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	3.6%	4.92	4.70	+0.3
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	107	487	103	49	18	48%	3.5	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	3.6%	5.55	4.80	-0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	15	107	487	103	49	18	48%	3.5	21.1%	10.1%	11.1%	3.7%	5.55	4.74	-0.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	6	0	9	40	6	0	1	0%	1.4	15.0%	0.0%	15.0%	2.5%	9.35	3.21	+0.1
2020	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	6	0	9	40	6	0	1	0%	1.4	15.0%	0.0%	15.0%	2.5%	9.35	3.22	+0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	6	30	9	3	4	50%	1.1	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	13.3%	8.53	9.15	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	6	30	9	3	4	50%	1.1	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	13.3%	8.53	9.89	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	31	0	33	140	21	10	4	0%	1.1	12.4%	6.4%	6.0%	3.0%	3.86	4.49	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	31	0	33	140	21	10	4	0%	1.1	12.4%	6.4%	6.0%	3.0%	3.86	4.49	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	31	0	33	140	21	10	4	0%	1.1	15.0%	7.1%	7.9%	2.9%	3.86	4.32	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	46	3	57	268	43	28	4	7%	1.2	13.3%	9.4%	3.9%	1.5%	6.44	3.99	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	46	3	57	268	43	28	4	7%	1.2	13.3%	9.4%	3.9%	1.5%	6.44	3.99	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	46	3	57	268	43	28	4	7%	1.2	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	1.5%	6.44	3.97	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	1	42	198	33	15	11	5%	1.9	16.7%	7.6%	9.1%	5.6%	8.42	6.03	-0.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	COL	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	11.8%	9.9%	1.9%	3.0%	5.34	5.37	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	COL	57	0	60	254	31	26	8	0%	1.1	12.2%	10.3%	1.9%	3.2%	5.41	5.52	-0.6
2028	33	MLB MLE	COL	53	0	55	233	28	25	8	0%	1.0	12.2%	10.6%	1.5%	3.5%	5.55	5.71	-0.7
2027	32	MLB CTX	COL	21	0	22	93	11	10	3	0%	1.0	12.2%	10.3%	1.9%	3.2%	5.41	5.52	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	COL	29	0	30	127	15	13	4	0%	1.0	12.2%	10.6%	1.5%	3.5%	5.55	5.71	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	1	94	420	60	38	18	1%	1.3	14.3%	9.1%	5.2%	4.4%	6.79	5.46	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		153	2	200	891	127	81	38	1%	1.3	14.3%	9.1%	5.2%	4.4%	6.79	5.46	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		212	96	636	2698	521	260	71	45%	3.0	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	2.6%	3.99	4.14	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	30	200	848	164	82	22	45%	3.0	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	2.6%	3.99	4.14	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chance Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	11.8%	9.9%	3.0%	—	5.61	12.2%	1.7%	115	+0.24	—	—	—
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	75
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	74
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	74
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	73
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	73
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	73
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	72
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	72
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	72
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	71
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	71
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	70
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	70
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	70
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	69
David Holman R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	29	SW	5.80	8.9%	10.7%	3.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	129	68
Casey Coleman R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	31	SP-	4.79	15.2%	7.9%	3.6%	.344	5.06	18.4%	9.4%	78	+0.27	2.95	306	67
Justin Masterson R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	31	SW	4.33	11.5%	11.1%	1.4%	.321	3.50	19.5%	8.7%	142	-0.83	3.50	269	67
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	67
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	12.0%	10.3%	1.24	5.43
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10