Chance Adams
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.0
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
AAA
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP4.92
SIERA4.47
K%19.4%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%9.7%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†3030
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p1018.1%
K%
p2518.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.380
CH-0.8
FB-1.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 10 | 0 | 26 | 105 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 21.6% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 2.10 | 1.79 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 21 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 25 | 24 | 127 | 495 | 144 | 39 | 9 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 2.33 | 3.59 | +2.5 |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 27 | 27 | 150 | 605 | 135 | 58 | 11 | 19.3% | 10.2% | 1.8% | 2.45 | 3.75 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | New York Yankees | 30 | 24 | 121 | 528 | 117 | 60 | 19 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 15 | 107 | 487 | 103 | 49 | 18 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.55 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 6 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.35 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 6 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 4 | — | — | — | 8.53 | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 31 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 13.2% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 46 | 3 | 57 | 268 | 43 | 28 | 4 | 14.1% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 6.44 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | COL | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 31 | 21 | 6 | 15.5% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.97 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | COL | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 30 | 20 | 6 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | COL | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 29 | 20 | 6 | 15.6% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | COL | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 27 | 19 | 6 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 5.23 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | COL | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 24 | 18 | 5 | 14.8% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 5.35 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | COL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 14.0% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.51 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 212 | 96 | 636 | 2698 | 524 | 266 | 72 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.18 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 30 | 200 | 848 | 165 | 84 | 23 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chance Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 15.5% | 10.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.24 | 15.5% | 4.9% | 131 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 86 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 84 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 83 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 83 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.61 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .286 | 4.13 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.48 | 4.13 | 156 | 82 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 81 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 81 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 81 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 80 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 80 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 80 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 79 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.81 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.04 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -0.77 | 3.17 | 273 | 79 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.13 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .278 | 5.98 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +0.85 | 5.13 | 194 | 79 |
| J.D. Martin R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.85 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.41 | 12.2% | -0.2% | 249 | +0.56 | 4.85 | 289 | 78 |
| Vin Mazzaro R 2024 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.06 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 126 | 78 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 78 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.03 | 12.3% | 8.6% | 1.6% | .305 | 4.70 | 10.6% | 2.6% | 55 | +0.67 | 4.03 | 152 | 78 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.38 | 13.2% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .283 | 3.66 | 19.4% | 11.5% | 210 | -0.72 | 2.96 | 358 | 77 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.